Shafroth Submits 4,600 Petitions, No Paid Gatherers Used

Polis vs. Shafroth

Shafroth has one million dollars cash on hand and a strong field operation

Joan Fitz-Gerald is out of money. Her field operation got out classed by the Polis team at the Congressional convention.  

Joan started out in a very strong position. Now, she is broke. Two months ago a Fitz-Gerald victory was inevitable. Today she is in deep trouble. Bob Ewegen remembers what happened in 1998 when the inevitable candidate Gail Schoettler blew a fifteen point lead with three weeks to go and lost. Every night Joan goes to bed remembering who the architect of that debacle was.

This race is now a two way race between Shafroth and Polis.

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by: Who To Believe @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 16:30:46 PM CDT

I hope you are not affiliated with the campaign

I hope Bob is wrong.

I support Shafroth and you are not helping.

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by: Danny the Red (hair) @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 16:33:44 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

WTB is really embarrassing Shafroth today

when Will should be getting great headlines and positive attention, this fool is undermining his candidate. Maybe he's a double-agent sock puppet, secretly working for Scott Starin.  

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by: RedGreen @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 16:37:51 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Don't over think

Recognizing that thinking is not your strong suit let's stick to the facts.

Fitz-Gerald has raised around $1 million but is down to under $250,000 cash on hand. She does not have the cash to compete.  

Fitz-Gerald's field operation was ineffective at the Congressional convention. Joan knows that in her last big race her campaign manager choked at the end and coughed up a huge lead. I bet Joan is wondering if history is about to repeat itself?

Polis has all those self-inflicted wounds. No way he can explain away, for example his claim to always have been against vouchers. I cannot wait to see the attack ads and direct mail exposing all those statements that just were not true.

Shafroth has Dixon Davis doing his TV and one million dollars in the bank.  Shafroth has a team able to go out and get a huge number of signatures. Neither Fitz-Gerald or Polis could have duplicated that effort.  

Tell me who is in the strongest position now in CD2?

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by: Who To Believe @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 16:55:40 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

who is in the strongest position now in CD2

I'd say Shafroth is. But you've made the same four or five points a hundred times. We get it. Come up with something new, your relentless, juvenile posts are reflecting poorly on your candidate.

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by: RedGreen @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 16:58:36 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I doubt there is an affiliation

The langage and grammar sounds just like LoverOfIrony.

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by: MountainTops @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 16:59:24 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Bob is misquoted, not wrong

Gail never had a 15 point lead.  Gail made a foto-finish despite a republican registration lead of 180,000 in a year when the GOP also took both chambers of the legislature.  

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by: bob ewegen @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 17:20:21 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

let's bet a coffee on it!

Schoettler was behind only on election day.  Her campaign goes down as one of the great choke jobs in Colorado history. The Republicans had a registration edge. The same edge they had held four years before when Romer won big.  1998 was also a huge Democratic year nationally.  

Glad the ROTC story on Polis caught your eye.  

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by: Who To Believe @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 17:29:59 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I don't bet with fools or sockpuppets.

And your job is to make coffee, not wager it!  

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by: bob ewegen @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 17:42:28 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

OK, but check the facts

Check the facts from 1998.  It was a great choke job.

Glad you will be checking up on that Polis claim that he was in the ROTC.  

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by: Who To Believe @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 17:45:24 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Ewegen

Are we now pretending anyone reads or cares about drivel written by Ewegen or Carroll types?  Their rants are buried so deep that only Litwen reads them on his way to his back page.

And Gail totally choked.  Photo finish?  Now that's revisionism!

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by: Disinterested17 @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 22:09:43 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Photo finish

Don't let the facts get in the way there, Disinterested.

Owens 646,997
Schoettler 639,214

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by: RedGreen @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 22:38:02 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

who cares?

WTB is Lover of Irony and a few other handles here.  I doubt (s)he is making any impact whatsoever.  Readers on Pols are insiders and obviously the insiders also are looking around quickly to figure out whatever they can figure out, but they're not going to be overly swayed by one opinion.

In fact, I just registered
www.veryliberalagitatedpissedoffpeoplewithnoorganization.com
-Laughing Boy

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by: indipol @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 17:33:07 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

What?

Political insiders wouldn't be swayed by an idiot who posts the same limpid, unrhymed verses assailing Jared Polis 343 times?  What makes you think that;-)  

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by: bob ewegen @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 17:45:40 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

If you think you're helping Will

you're not.

Where you gonna go for business reporting software?

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by: DavidThi808 @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 22:42:51 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

4600 is a lot

Any guesses on how many votes will be cast in the primary?

Any guesses on how many votes it will take to win?

Udall won the CD2 primary in 1998 with 12k votes out of a total of about 28k and that was a year with a contested senate and governor primary.  

Since there is no president/governor/senate I don't think turnout will be huge in august.  However, I'm not certain about this.

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by: Danny the Red (hair) @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 16:32:48 PM CDT

my guess is....

30K-35K voters and 18K safe to win, maybe 15K gets it done.  Obviously if #2 and #3 split evenly then a bit over 10-12K gets it done.

I haven't hidden my support for WS but even so, this is his second shockingly good report in a row (the first being the Q1 fundraising numbers)

In fact, I just registered
www.veryliberalagitatedpissedoffpeoplewithnoorganization.com
-Laughing Boy

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by: indipol @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 17:37:26 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

No doubt this is a strong showing for Shafroth

Whether or not these votes translate into supporters, I don't know.

The few people I've talked to about it said they'd sign Shafroth's petition, even though they might have a different candidate as a favorite.

Let's face it - all three of the CD-2 candidates are at worst not embarrassing, and at best each will bring strong positives to the seat when elected.

But today, congratulations to Will for his very good official entry into the primary race.

"I have come to the conclusion that the making of laws is like the making of sausages-the less you know about the process the more you respect the result."  -- Anonymous IL State Rep. circa 1878

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by: Phoenix Rising @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 17:03:37 PM CDT

I signed Will's petition

But I'll be voting for Jared. I figure that Will is also a great candidate and I'm happy to see him running. If Joan petitioned I would have signed her ballot too.

Where you gonna go for business reporting software?

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by: DavidThi808 @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 17:15:32 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I would have signed her ballot too

If you had, only the first one you signed would be valid. I just called the Secretary of State Elections division and learned voters may only sign one nominating petition for a contested race. If you sign any others, the subsequent signatures are invalid.

It's the same as delegates at an assembly. You don't get to vote "all of the above."

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by: RedGreen @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 17:26:07 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

But I want all of the above :)

Seriously, they're all good candidates. Can we send all 3 and they have to share the job?

Where you gonna go for business reporting software?

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by: DavidThi808 @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 17:57:42 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

all of the above

Whoever wins the primary is likely going to have the job as long as he or she wants it, so cast a vote for posterity. (Unless Polis flits on to something else; FitzGerald or Shafroth could stay there for a decade.)

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by: RedGreen @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 18:03:38 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

You have to hand it to the gatherers

Gathering signatures sucks. What's worse than stalking people in grocery store parking lots? Especially if it is futile overkill like this to try and score a couple of headlines. A better use of time would be to gather 1750 to 2000 to be safe, and then get those volunteers spending their time getting some ID's from likely voters.  

"It is hard enough to remember my opinions, without also remembering my reasons for them!" - Nietzsche  

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by: twas brillig @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 17:05:51 PM CDT

Have the petition rules changed?

I ran a (successful) petition drive to get a candidate on the ballot years ago, things might have changed since. But aren't you pledging you'll vote for the candidate in the primary, when you sign a nominating petition? Of course, it's unenforceable, but you're not just saying "yeah, sure, put him on the ballot," you're saying you'll vote for the guy (or gal). So the Shafroth campaign has a good likely voter list already.

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by: RedGreen @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 17:12:22 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I saw what's his name collecting signatures too

That other guy trying to get on the ballot for CD-2. He was getting no one both when I entered and left King Soopers - but he was trying.

Where you gonna go for business reporting software?

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by: DavidThi808 @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 17:18:04 PM CDT

What's your take on this, David?

As a resident of the district.   For my part, I'm having a hard time recalling when I saw three credible, viable, candidates dueling, if you forget the zillion-member primary that Lamborn won in the Springs.
What makes this so remarkable is that 2nd is anything but a Democratic lock, Mark Udall barely beat moderate Republican Bob Greenlee.  Yet, the GOP is giving the Ds a pass at the very time the Ds are facing a potentially divisive three-way primary.  I guess that's a sign of the low ebb of Republican fortunes in Colorado. Despite the number of Shafroth's signatures, I always see being forced to take the petition route as a sign of weakness, because if you can't impress the party cadre, it bodes ill for later.  So right now, I rate them Fitz-G 1, Polis 2 Shafroth 3.  But all have well-financed organized campaigns and the key question as always is Who Splits Whose Base?  Fitz-G probably runs better in the more moderate Jeffco, Adams portions of the district but how do you read the troika?
I'm also interested in how other district residents read it, sockpuppets excepted, of course.

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by: bob ewegen @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 17:38:20 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Mark Udall barely beat moderate Republican Bob Greenlee

   True, but how often does the GOP run a moderate these days?  Halley's Comet will return before the Republicans run another Bob Greenlee type candidate.

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by: One Queer Dude @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 17:43:05 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

The pity is, oqd

Bob is really fairly conservative, but he does live on our planet. I thought someone like former Jeffco Commissioner and state Rep. Michelle Lawrence might run or Sandy Hume, who ran against Udall in 2002.  Hume was a longtime county official and former state rep. In their glory days, Republicans remembered that a moderate Republican is 100 percent better than a liberal democrat.  Basically, the most important vote you cast is to organize the house.  The difference between a Denny Hastert and a Nancy Pelosi, and the people they appoint to chair the gatekeepers, is enormous. But really, it looks to me like the Republican candidate recruiting system is breaking down. Part of the problem is being out of power in the lege, which denies them the high profile posts that a Fitz-G enjoys. Mike May has a talented group of first and second year legislators he's priming for better things, but nobody in striking range in the second. Part of the problem is that the liberal to moderate Republicans, like Hume, have been replaced with liberal Democrats like Claire Levy. But after watching nearly 40 years of Republican domination of state politics, I am still amazed at the reversal of fortune for the GOP.  

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by: bob ewegen @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 17:57:56 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

It's the 40 years

That amount of time corrupts any group.

Where you gonna go for business reporting software?

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by: DavidThi808 @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 18:10:31 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Pretty much true.

The Ds had about a 40 year run in Congress before Gingrich and co. threw them out.  It didn't take nearly as long for power to corrupt the Rs and lead to their own ouster.  Hegel seems the only true guide to politics.

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by: bob ewegen @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 18:19:28 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

good point

on recruiting ills leading to the GOPs "reversal of fortune." I believe that the Rs internecine warfare prevents the recruitment of center right candidates. A primary battle with the religious right is enough of a deterrent to  keep the moderates out. What's left are marginally competitive far right candidates.

Boulder, of course, is a different story. Only a moderate R could get through, Greenlee was very well liked and the Mayor of Boulder. Jeffco is a prime example of the effect. The party moves further right and loses a foothold e.g. Matt Knoedler vs Betty Boyd.

BTW, great line "your job is to make coffee, not wager it"

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by: Miss Ive @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 23:08:54 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

i'm not David but I'll reply anyway

CD2 is not a D lock but this year it is.  It's a year that the R's are going to get trounced nation-wide.  They've already lost three mid-year replacement election in R-leaning districts (the most prominent being Hastert's seat).  No way in hades they're winning a D-leaning seat that has a fired-up, super-lib core.  

Going straight to the voters and ignoring the party hacks is a sign of weakness in an apathetic district where the vote(r)s are controlled by a party machine.  That's definitely not the case in CD-2.  If anything the party hacks are most irrelevant in a highly motivated and educated district.

Most likely Polis and Shafroth split each others bases more than any other combo, but part of that is b/c Jared has been positioning himself as a checkbook enviro, thus taking some of Will's enviro support.  On the media slashing, though, Jared and Joan are carving each other up, letting Will take spoils.  So it's hard to tell.  I doubt Joan gets more play than the others in Adams.  Jeffco maybe, but not Adams.  

In fact, I just registered
www.veryliberalagitatedpissedoffpeoplewithnoorganization.com
-Laughing Boy

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by: indipol @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 17:46:03 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Sounds about right, Indipol.

This is anyone's to win. As to adams, I have think Fg is at least best positioned in the Westminster area, that city being split about half and half twix Jeffco and Adams.
Neither Jeffco nor Adams is nearly as liberal as Boulder, where environmentalism is everything. Adams has a significant organized labor element, which is a good base for Joan.  This one is fun to watch.

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by: bob ewegen @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 18:03:47 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Not David's take

but I think your point about Republicans ceding the district is spot on. The problem is, they've got no bench in the 2nd District.

Petitioning isn't the sign of weakness it once might have been. Witness Coffman's route this year. In these three- (or four-) way races, it's a way to ensure you've got multiple candidates on the ballot and divide the opposition. Historically, the "party cadre" in the 2nd District hasn't had a cohesive identity separate from the congressman -- it's been a Wirth, Skaggs or Udall organization (unlike, say, the 1st or 5th district party groups, which seem to exist apart from whoever's in Congress).

I'd peg the split this way: FitzGerald gets the Mondale-Dukakis vote, Polis gets the Tsongas-Bradley vote and Shafroth gets the Hart-Gore vote. I'd say it's a pretty even split. I think it comes down to personality, and there Shafroth has an edge if his media campaign is as smart and endearing as WTB suggests.

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by: RedGreen @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 17:56:14 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

It's an interesting question

I think a Republican would have a very hard time as most of the independents in this are vote a straight Democratic ticket. They aren't Dems because they party is too far to the right for them, not too far to the left.

As to who wins, here's my guess today - Will & Joan split the votes from the Boulder machine, which is a gigant chunk of the total. Jared pulls from his own base which he has built up. And in that scenario Jared wins.

It's interesting, Will appears to have the unofficial support of the Boulder Democratic machine. But it's not official as Joan carries a lot of weight. So it depends on how public the machine is with their support as quiet support does not move as much of the mass.

A gigant indicator will be the Sierra Club endorsement. For the city council election it was their slate winning every seat. So they probably will decide the winner in the city of Boulder.

But the further someone is from the city limits, the less influence they have. And CD-2 is much bigger than just the city.

Where you gonna go for business reporting software?

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by: DavidThi808 @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 18:08:47 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Sierra Club will endorse?

I bet they stay out in the primary.  They'll endorse the winner, obviously.  (Kinda like the SuperDelegates waiting one more month to go for Obama?)

DT, you're the only analyst(? haha) predicting a scenario for a Polis win, so go on ya for sticking your neck out.  I can't forsee that possibility because I can't see a scenario where the most likely duo split is Joan v. Will.  What would they be splitting?  They have barely acknowledged each other in the race so far (that will change, obviously).  FWIW, from my word of mouth, man on the street polling, Jared has big name recognition in Boulder, much bigger than Joan, and not least because of his self-aggrandizing pre-Congressional race mass mailings.  

In fact, I just registered
www.veryliberalagitatedpissedoffpeoplewithnoorganization.com
-Laughing Boy

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by: indipol @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 22:29:04 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

But how will Boulder know how to vote...

If the Sierra Club doesn't tell them? We may see some very confused people at the polls here.

Will does seem to have the Boulder Political elite behind him. But they seem to be doing it very quietly so I don't know how much that will carry.

Where you gonna go for business reporting software?

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by: DavidThi808 @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 22:42:05 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Who knows if they will,

but the BPE (Boulder political elite) has two months to personally contact every Democrat in Boulder, make them a smoothie and take their dog for a walk. The turnout is going to be very small (it's the only race on the ballot), so it's not a matter of persuading the vast middle but identifying and turning out your supporters. That's a very different election than one on a crowded ballot.

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by: RedGreen @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 22:48:37 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Not the only race

We also have Cindy Carlisle vs Rollie Heath. Rollie also has the BPE, or at least all those above "a certain age." Cindy has a fired up base.

My guess is Cindy wins that one for the same reason Jared wins CD-2.

Where you gonna go for business reporting software?

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by: DavidThi808 @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 22:52:30 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Anyone with a strong preference

in the state senate race is also going to have a strong preference in the congressional primary. So, yeah, thanks for catching that, some precincts in the 2nd CD will have something else on the ballot, but what I said still holds.  

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by: RedGreen @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 23:00:42 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Larry Johnson?

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by: One Queer Dude @ Wed May 28, 2008 at 17:40:21 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yes!

Where you gonna go for business reporting software?

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by: DavidThi808 @ Thu May 29, 2008 at 00:08:10 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I was out...

Registering new voters at the Boulder Creek Fest on monday and I saw one of Shafroth's volunteers working.  He was doing pretty well, but as I walked by with my clipboard, the person who was signing this petition at the time waved me over and told me they needed to register to vote.  I registered them no problem, but is their signature still valid on the petition, seeing as their registration wont be processed for a few days, and more importantly, how many others are not registered voters?

Votes have a well known liberal bias, along with facts, figures, statistics, the media, and the truth.

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by: ekean @ Thu May 29, 2008 at 09:16:45 AM CDT

I think so

as long as they were signed the same day.

Not that it matters, it sounds like Will put in more than enough signatures.

Non impediti ratione cogitationis.

"Some of the people that wanted to engage me in conversation appeared to have been the losers in the 'Are you smarter than Michele Bachmann contest?'." --Rep. Barney Frank

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by: ThillyWabbit @ Thu May 29, 2008 at 09:40:06 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yawn!!

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz!

I am stunned that there are 44 posts here and more than ten people who care about this.  The reality is that everyone who cares about this in any way has written on this post.  Don't delude yourselves.  This is absolutely meaningless.  Most people sign petitions not knowing and never having any intention to be bound to vote for that person come August.

I understand the value of adding 4,600 names to your mail list, but I bet there aren't a thousand who are actually supporting Shafroth the rest are just the average Joe who will decide who to vote for just like the rest of the district.

Oh, by the way, the real question is what idiot in the campaign let it waste volunteer hours of a huge magnitude on such a worthless effort.  It would have cost about $5,000 to get enough signatures to get on the ballot.  Out of a million that he supposedly has, that's nothing.

Why weren't his volunteers doing much more important things?

To me this is an issue of the campaign showing its lack of knowledge and inablility to properly prioritize the use of its resources.  

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by: Craig @ Thu May 29, 2008 at 10:44:14 AM CDT