Why Mississippi Offers More than Just Hope for CD-4

Musgrave's an incumbent; Dems won open seats

And Musgrave's opponent is a Washington-based carpet bagger far as I can see.

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by: Another skeptic @ Thu May 15, 2008 at 23:31:48 PM UTC

I think Betsy has it won

As AS is wrong on just about everything he/she says, I take the comment here to mean Betsy is going to win.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

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by: DavidThi808 @ Thu May 15, 2008 at 23:43:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

LOL

Funny!

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by: Another skeptic @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 14:07:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

By this analysis, CO-06 should be "more than just a hope" too!

In comparison to CO-04:
- Open seat
- 2004 Bush 60: Kerry 40
- Notable swings: Joe Rice HD 38, Strong Ritter support across District.
- Big demographic shift in close exurbs esp. Highlands Ranch/ Douglas county
- Record turnout at Dem caucuses with very strong (88%) support for Hank Eng at CD-6 convention.
- Behemoth, expensive slugfest between candidates Coffman and Armstrong for the R spot.

Yes, DT808 is correct that this takes more than wishful thinking. However sharp campaign management alone is also insufficient to overcome prevailing perceptions without an effective ground game/GOTV and some $$$!  

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by: Genway543 @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 04:52:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

AS

you've been wrong on just about everything you've said on this blog, so I'll take that statement as blessing.

Anne, you better believe I'll be making phone calls, knocking doors and contributing to the campaign to Betsy elected.  

"Suddenly, it may be cool to be American again" - William J. Kole

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by: Go Blue @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 05:01:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Opinions differ

I my opinion, you've  never been right about anything. Pun intended.

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by: Another skeptic @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 14:08:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The difference is

We compare opinions with reality. You just close your eyes and pretend everything is as you imagine it.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

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by: DavidThi808 @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 19:35:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Facts on the ground

In each of the contests you point out, the Democrat ran as someone who was at least as conservative as the Republican, pro-life, pro-gun rights, pro-defense, etc.  Is Betsy going to announce her support for the unborn, for the right to self-defense?  If not, then the examples you set out above are meaningless.  It's not impossible that your candidate may win, but it seems silly to assume so comparing your apple to those oranges.

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by: cologeek @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 00:07:33 AM UTC

That's not true

I've made the point the Louisiana and Mississippi Democrats were unabashedly pro-life and pro-gun, but others have pointed out the Illinois candidate has positions close to Markey's.

As much as Musgrave's supporters might wish it, Colorado's 4th isn't in the Deep South.

Since Musgrave is in a race to the left, softening her pro-Bush stances at every opportunity, her supporters should get their facts straight before they try to make sense of this contest.  

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by: RedGreen @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 00:14:27 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ain't it ironic that

Musgrave is tacking to the left as Udall tacks to the right.  Maybe Democracy really is about reigning in our impulses to extremism.  I like the free for all in CD 2 where Jared Polis is just so up front about the urgency of bringing the occupation to a conclusion.  Udall probably has more in common with Musgrave in supporting the occupation than he has with Polis.

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by: Gilpin Guy @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 04:15:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Musgrave's using the Dems' co-opt strategy, and she'll probably win

Just as the three winning Dems went conservative, Musgrave's moving to the middle, and she begins as an incumbent, which the hard left propagandists refuse to recognize. They specialize in head-in-the-sand politics.

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by: Another skeptic @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 14:11:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Except

The three Democrats went conservative? Hardly. They had solid records and ran on them. Which is a problem comparing to Musgrave, because she's never reached across the aisle or bucked the Bush administration UNTIL SHE WAS IN TROUBLE. Voters can grasp that.

And you're wrong about the sand. Read any of my posts or diaries on this subject (going back to the Saturday night when a Democrat won for the first time since 1974 in the Baton Rouge district), and anacaprana's lengthy writings, and all the discussion.

Of course taking three special elections (in a row) isn't the same as taking on a weakened incumbent who's scrambling to remake herself. The Republicans in Congress are terrified. I'm glad you're complacent.  

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by: RedGreen @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 19:10:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Comparisons Aside CD-4 Is Not IL, LA,MS

I go into more detail today at widestreet.net, but, all due respect to Anne and Betsy, but this is silly.  CD-4 boils down to Weld County.

Despite whatever efforts, Stan and Angie were unable to do well on the plains, and you can only squeeze so many democratic votes out of Larimer.  The portion of Boulder county is too small to make a significant difference across the election, and you're left with Weld Co. as the place to win CD-4.

Anne, your strategy of laying low (as printed a couple weeks ago in the Coloradoan) is idiotic.  And the folks you have working Weld county are under some illusion that because Ritter carried the county, and because you have Salazar's coat-tails, that you'll win, too.  This is dumb, as well.

You need to get ahead of Musgrave on a couple issues, and given your ties to Salazar, why were you not out 2 weeks ago calling for Musgrave to support the Farm Bill, and putting her in a no-win situation (do what you said, or screw her constituents)? And why is Salazar out working with Marilyn on this issue?

Betsy needs to win Weld Co., and blathering about Mississippi ain't gonna work.  You have to work harder, be more creative and nimble, and, most importantly, be everywhere.

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by: Weld-ing @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 00:34:42 AM UTC

this makes sense to me

don't know if its true, but it makes sense

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by: Danny the Red (hair) @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 00:42:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dems need to support Dems in the press and not give fuel to Musgrave

Hey folks,

This is a different campaign than has been run before in the 4th.  Betsy is developing relationships across the District, especially in the counties across the interstate and all the way to the 3 borders.  Some might say she is better known in Sterling than in Fort Collins.  She has been to every county at least 2 times and some more than that!  

And, this is what she has to do - get known in every one of the 19 Counties.  She knows how many more votes she needs in each county.

We should be talking about how she will vote as says.   She will put her votes where her mouth is.   And, she will be consistent.  

We don't need to pick on members of her staff or her strategies.   If you have concerns about her ability to win - then volunteer!  Or donate money.  www.markeyforcongress.com.  

She has a story to tell and is very "up" on the issues.  I think I have heard her speak now 6 times since last summer and her grasp of the issues amazes me.

I'm NOT surprised that Emily's List endorsed her so early in the campaign and will be very supportive of her efforts.   I'm not surprised that the DCCC believes in her.  I'm not surprised that she has raised more than any Democratic candidate who ran in the 4th District.

And, sadly, I'm not surprised that the major newspaper in her district has failed to say a word about an extraordinary Economic Plan.

Please read the plan - www.markeyforcongress/plan and then return and blog about her thoughtful and insightful plan for solving the economic injustices in our country.

I'm looking forward to greeting Betsy - in January as Congresswoman.   I think it can be done - in spite of the fact that she is running against an incumbant - who, by the way, has been told don't look for any financial support from the RNC.

Ann
 

amolison

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by: Ann Molison @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 01:55:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

yep

but cd 04 is won on the ground. I have not even seen anything related to field come out of markey.  She should be doing a huge reg and turn out effort and I do not see any of the ground work being set up.

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by: Coloradobaywatch @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 02:00:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

This is the same B.S. that led to Angie's loss

Look, we Dems all want Betsy to win. But if we see the campaign being poorly run, keeping quiet and "just volunteering" is not doing anyone any favors.

This is not to say that suggestions made here are right. Many made here will be wrong. And many will be reasonable but not that critical.

But what does worry me is the belief in the campaign that things are running well and that anyone with suggestions should shut up and volunteer. That is a receipe for sure failure.

And the fact that Betsy has a plan - so what. No candidate has ever won election because they have a plan with the possible exception of Eisenhower who's "plan" was that he would get us out of Korea.

This seat is winnable, but it's going to require a very well run campaign and with that it will still be a close run thing. MM has won year after year and she has a campaign staff that has experience, skills, and a record of winning. This is a very tough race.

Posts like yours scare me.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

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by: DavidThi808 @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 03:52:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That goes for Salazar & Udall too

  In the past week or two we have seen Udall co-sponsor earmark ban legislation with MM, and Salazar cooperate on farm bill veto override.  What is going on here?!?!  This plays directly into MM's "bipartisan,working for the district" memes.  

  Either Udall & Salazar are throwing a fellow Dem under the bus for personal pandering points, or there is a significant lack of communication among staffs, or something.  

  What gives?  

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by: RavenDawg @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 04:06:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sit there and blather

You have a lot of nerve telling some to work harder while you sit behind your PC and blather.  I've volunteered on three campaigns here and I don't recall seeing you do any work. All you do is give your ill informed opinions about things you know nothing about.  

Having volunteered at Markey headquarters I've seen these people working practically 7 days a week. How can you say work harder, you have no idea what they do.  

Not only that the campaign manager is by far the sharpest of ANY campaign around here in the past 15 years. But of course you wouldn't know that unless you read it in the Coloradoan.  That what is idiotic.

Do you actually think as they raise more money then any other campaign, as they gain endorsements like EMILYS list and others they are laying low?  Do you believe Musgrave when she says in the Coloradoan that she is for the poor and down trodden?   Wake up!   Stop calling people names when you obviously don't see them in action.

Do us all a favor and work harder and be smarter.

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by: ModDem @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 02:56:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hey

I've never said work harder, She has a great team. I just want to see more field staff.  

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by: Coloradobaywatch @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 04:00:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I worked hard on CD-4

Though I doubt anyone here knows it.  If you ask around, you can figure it out, though.

That said, I'm not calling people names.  I am calling their plans misguided and errant.  Anne is a decent, sharp, intelligent woman.  Her plan is simply not going to work.

1) Betsy will not do as well as Angie in Larimer.  Hell, Angie (08) would not do as well as Angie (06) in Larimer.  No shame, it's just that the issues don't present in her favor this time.

2) Musgrave has firmed up her ag-core voters on the plains with Pinon Canyon and the Ark Conduit.  The Farm Bill PR won't hurt her either.

3) Betsy is not visible in Weld county, and she's going to have to win Weld to win CD-4.  

This race is not about affect, it's about math, people. Obama may help Betsy a little, but she will not win this on the plains or in Larimer or Boulder.  It's ALL about Weld, and in Weld it's all about getting another 2000 voters in HD-50 (East Greeley & Evans, Rep Riesberg's district) and winning in HD-48, West Greeley and southwest Weld, Rep Vaad (R)).

This is not personal.  But it is important.  So it's time to put on the big boy/girl pants and start fighting.

If you want more info about my efforts on behalf of Liberal Causes drop me a line at jobu at widestreets (dot) net.  I'll not hide behind anything.

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by: Weld-ing @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 04:30:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Decent, sharp and intelligent...

I think you left out charmingly witty and uncommonly attractive.

Also...I have above average Cranium skills.

Dave...we disagree.  That's ok.  Come find me this weekend and we can disagree in person.  Trust me...I've had my big girl pants on since working a Democratic primary in the heart of Oklahoma.  I'd rather yell a little in person and then have a drink later.

Also...I'm Italian and cannot possible discuss this any longer if I can't use my hands.

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by: anacaprana @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 05:15:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'll definitely come say hi on Saturday

But if you start using your hands to discuss - I'm ducking :)

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

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by: DavidThi808 @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 05:31:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I remember your work on the campaign.

You were amazing. You won't know who I am by my user name but you know me and I know you. And I know what you did for Angie and for Weld County. And I thank you for it.

And frankly, I'm with you...it's all about Weld County but every single candidate that has run for this seat just doesn't get that. There were numbers that Paccione's campaign looked at after the race and they clearly indicated that a record amount of Dems turned out in the older, more established parts of Greeley. The votes are there to be gotten but I'm just not seeing a decent field coordination or ground game being established there. I can honestly say that our efforts in Weld County in 2006 were a day late and a dollar short. We had amazing people in Weld County that worked their asses off. It wasn't their fault that the campaign didn't have them on the ground 6 months sooner, making inroads with the voters.

And from the look of the thread here, it isn't happening this time, either.

Still, I do think Markey is an excellent candidate with great potential and this year is beginning to shape up as the Perfect Storm, Part Deux. Musgrave isn't able to count on the financial backing from the national party and Paccione came within less than 3 points of picking this seat off so we know this seat is vulnerable. If Markey can concentrate her efforts in Larimer and Weld and keep the gains made in Boulder County, she's headed for DC next year and Musgrave's headed for retirement.

"I wouldn't characterize caloric intake as "professional development." c rork

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by: Middle of the Road @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 15:20:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You're right Weld County is the key

Weld County is the key.  If Musgrave's support cracks in Weld, she is finished.  However, that may be happening.  She did not do as well in Weld in 06 as she did in 04 and Bill Ritter actually won Weld County by four tenths of a percent over Beauprez.  As the Denver suburbs push into southern Weld County and the population continues to grow in the Longmont area and all over Larimer County, the 4th CD is going to move farther and farther away from people like Musgrave.  Her days are numbered and Betsy Markey may be the one to unseat her.

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by: Republican 36 @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 14:05:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Betsey is OK

At least Betsey doesn't go around accusing people of stealing her e-mail list.  

Betsey is not going to win but at least she won't make a fool of herself the way Will Shafroth and Will Armstrong are doing?

Speaking of dumb, Obama sure looked and acted like a rookie today.  Naive and thin skinned are the words that best describe Obama on foreign policy

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by: Which Will @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 01:22:00 AM UTC

Hmm...

Looking at the date of your registration, could you be a sock puppet?

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno

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by: Ralphie @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 02:17:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Substitute "Bush in the Knesset" for "Obama"

... and I think you've got it about right.

"Why not do the right thing for the American people, even though it's not exactly what we want." - Speaker Boehner

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by: Half Glass Full @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 02:54:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hey Mr. Sock Puppet

It's Betsy, not Betsey. By any chance do you work on the Schaffer campaign? Possibly in the selection of background pictures for the video shoots?

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

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by: DavidThi808 @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 04:17:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I guess if you were a black man

and some one called you a Nazis appeaser you would just say "Yah sur.  I'm just a no good Nazis appeaser.  Kick me agin."  Blacks are so in bed with the Nazis.

Baracks reply was just a devastating reinforcement of what a sad little man George Bush has become.  It was almost as masterful as telling the press that McCain had "lost his bearings" for attempting the stale and stupid "terrorists love Democrats" meme.  Get some new material folks.  It ain't 2002 anymore.

I think dumb would be anyone who ever voted for or believed that George Bush was capable of being a competent president.

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by: Gilpin Guy @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 04:25:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Obama's an appeaser, and Bush smoked him out

Bush didn't name Carter or his look alike, Obama, but he sure smoked them out.

Everyone got the message, including, I hope, the European appeasers. They know Hitler and seem to think he was a charmer.

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by: Another skeptic @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 14:21:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Who do you remind me of

of right this guy. You don't have a real opinion or original thought of your own do you?

You don't have a clue as to what you're talking about, but you did get the "message" on what talking points to use. Voters are not as dumb as you think they are. Get a clue.

"Suddenly, it may be cool to be American again" - William J. Kole

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by: Go Blue @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 14:26:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

LOL

Funny!

I make up my own talking points. Others frequently follow.

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by: Another skeptic @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 15:05:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wow.

Matthews is usually a lap dog.  Glad to see he turned into a Pit Bull on this loser.

"But when I see a 9-11 victim family on television, or whatever, I'm just like, 'Oh, shut up!' I'm so sick of them because they're always complaining."  Glenn Beck  

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by: Arvadonian @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 16:56:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

ROFLMAOPIMP

My God, Go Blue is right. You're calling Obama an appeaser because that was in the news. Pathetic!

"Thank you for putting your rank political motives on display." - ArapaGOP

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by: Aristotle @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 14:31:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Obama's been an appeaser from the git go

Where have you been?  Watching Jeopardy?

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by: Another skeptic @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 15:05:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

and yet

it's only now that you're saying this. LOL

"Thank you for putting your rank political motives on display." - ArapaGOP

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by: Aristotle @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 15:37:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

John McCain's pro-Hamas "appeasement" policy

Suck this, lolipop!


"At times one remains faithful to a cause only because its opponents do not cease to be insipid." - Nietzsche  

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by: twas brillig @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 17:08:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Who looked dumb today

oh right, the worst President in US History who went abroad to make an attack, like the chicken hawk he is, and his wanna-be third term old man McCain who lost his walnuts.

Be sure to read the Washington Post article on McCain's Hypocrisy of Hamas which details McCain's position being for talking to Hamas before he was against it.

I'm more than happy to elect a "rookie" like Barack Obama who has a sound mind to make the right judgements at the right time, than old man like McCain who can't think without one of his lobbyist buddies tell him what to say.

"Suddenly, it may be cool to be American again" - William J. Kole

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by: Go Blue @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 05:10:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

A sound Marxist mind is not what we want

Obama apparently grew up with a mom who didn't believe in America, and he certainly has associated with Marxists in Chicago for a long time.

Is he an appeaser or an insurgent?

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by: Another skeptic @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 14:23:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And McCain

is a Manchurian candidate or just so old he can't remember what day of the week it is?

Seriously, you Rethugs never learn. You red-baiting bullshit ain't going to work.  

"Suddenly, it may be cool to be American again" - William J. Kole

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by: Go Blue @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 14:28:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

the right wing's greatest hits.....

   They haven't resorted to calling any Democrat a "Pinko" in a long time.
  Be careful.  You're starting to engage in McCarthyism.

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by: One Queer Dude @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 17:22:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Why does the poster known as Which Will remind me of the recent poster known as Lover of Irony? (n/t)

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by: ModerateGal @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 12:16:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

wasn't "Lover of Irony" a Fitz-Shill?

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by: One Queer Dude @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 17:23:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Happy to have the comments, the compliments AND the criticism

I really do read it all and I have a general policy on the campaign to answer every phone call and e-mail (although some always fall through the cracks)...and to ask questions of people who make suggestions, even if I don't agree with them.

But I would say that the burden of appropriate response falls both ways.  We make day to day decisions on the campaign about spending resources and time that are influenced by a million factors and, in a district as big as this one, just because you don't see something happening personally...doesn't actually mean it is not happening.

But ask and I'll tell you.  Call the campaign and ask for me.  I'm not going to broadcast every part of our strategy on line (because that really would be idiotic) but the community has a right to ask...just as we have a right to ask you not to presume before you ask.

This campaign WILL look different from the ones you have seen here in the past.  Sorry, Weld-ing, you have tried to convince me of the idea that we should just give up on the Eastern Plains before and I just don't buy it...and if that takes time and energy now then so be it.  We've been in Weld quite a bit and will continue to be as this campaign moves on...but we have to turn out the base (and in a presidential year I just plain disagree that you are not going to see higher Dem turnout then before if you work at it), persuade unaffiliateds and lure disaffected Republicans.  That requires a strategy that casts a broad net.

And we're not trying to ride anyone's coattails...but Ritter won this district and Salazar came very close.  It would be dumb not to look at what they did.

ColoradoBayWatch...I agree 100% that this campaign is won on the ground.  I'd be happy to chat with you about what we are currently doing, what we have plans to do, and where you see things lacking.  (I'm in Colorado Springs tomorrow so I'll be out of the office but feel free to call next week - 970-221-1473.)

Look I put this post up to make a point and inspire some dialogue.  My point was simply that if a Democrat can win a House seat where 62% of the electorate voted for President Bush and hadn't put someone with a D after their name in office since 1941...then no seat is safe this year.

Are we going to count on it?  Absolutey not.  But are we going to take a long hard look at every single instance before November where a Democrat beats an entrenched Republican?  You better believe it.

Our supporters are second to none and our volunteers are of the highest caliber I have ever seen.  They keep us going every day...and people like Ann Molinson have been working to get Democrats elected at every level in this state for far longer years that I have been around.  And every day they urge me to do things to make the campaign better...no campaign is perfect and this one is no exception.  But I do think that by many objective measures we are doing very well.

But again...I'm biased.

And David...seriously...I would start to worry if you ever "kept quiet."

Yell, call, write, come by our table Saturday in Colorado Springs or catch us at the CD-4 convention tomorrow night.  The one promise I can make is that we will listen.

Thanks!

Anne

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by: anacaprana @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 05:03:49 AM UTC

:-)

Welcome to dealing and wasting time dealing with all of the armchair quarterbacks on here. I think you have put Besty into a place that she has a real shot to stop Muskrat into the ground.

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by: Coloradobaywatch @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 13:57:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thank you for this diary

and for your comments. I worked my tail off in 2006 for Angie Paccione and I really think Betsy has a shot here at picking off this seat.

The one area that I see consistently ignored by every candidate that has run in this district is the emphasis on Weld County with an overemphasis on the Eastern Plains. That mistake was made on Stan's campaigns, Angie's campaign and from the look of your comment, it's being made in Betsy's.

You've got two counties that make or break you--Weld and Larimer. If you don't win both, you don't win. Period. You can spend every waking moment on the Eastern Plains, get every single Republican and Independent to vote with you and at the end of the day, if you don't win Weld, you lose.

We learn from history that we do not learn from history.

"I wouldn't characterize caloric intake as "professional development." c rork

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by: Middle of the Road @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 15:13:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

As Carville might say...

...it's about BUSH, stupid. To say nothing of Darth Vader. The Republicans' time is up...everywhere. Bush's power is not to be underestimated, even in CD4. Hell, even in CD6.  This "change" stuff isn't just a slogan. It's a fact, and it's rollin' down the highway.

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by: JO @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 06:12:38 AM UTC

One of the lessons

of the Illinois, Louisiana and Mississippi wins was the failure of the Republican candidates and NRCC to nationalize the elections by tying the Democratic candidates to Obama (or general Democratic politics). That cut both ways - Democrats benefited from Bush disapproval, but that just opened voters to considering an opposition candidate. The candidates themselves closed the deal, it wasn't simply a protest vote.

There's a different equation at work in the general -- voters can't help but consider a district's candidate's ties to national candidates -- but overwhelming dissatisfaction with Bush doesn't necessarily transfer down-ticket, especially when Musgrave is actively hewing to the center and challenging Bush.

We won't know until this fall whether McCain succeeds making himself a palatable alternative to Bush. It's possible. If he does, voters in red districts like the 4th may be less comfortable voting their frustrations further down the ticket.

Ritter and Salazar both ran as strong law-and-order Democrats against deeply flawed candidates. While Musgrave may be easy to caricature from the left, she's a familiar incumbent, so comparisons with Coors or Beauprez fall short.

Of course, if the mood this fall is 1974- or 1994-style "throw the bums out," Markey stands to benefit as the challenger to the first incumbent voters will encounter on the ballot.  

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by: RedGreen @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 07:27:34 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

If you look at foreclosure rates in the CD4

there is a national issue that is big in the district.

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by: Danny the Red (hair) @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 07:39:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sure it is

all "national issues" are big in the 4th CD, except maybe whether to display the Confederate flag.

But to acknowledge that isn't the same as trying to nationalize a district election, which is what the Republicans did in the three turnovers this spring.  

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by: RedGreen @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 08:00:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It was big in 2006, as well.

"I wouldn't characterize caloric intake as "professional development." c rork

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by: Middle of the Road @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 15:10:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rarely

does an election year like this one come along. I'd put it in the category of 1932 more than '94, but really I think it's in its own category, from the depths of the muck created by the administration AND it's go-along-with-anything suckups in Congress to the wave of new voters who will be coming to the polls in their fuel-efficient hybrid Droves. From my viewpoint, floating hundreds of miles above the planet Earth, it's clear that it's not really possible to distinguish "Republican" from "Bush," and that not a single light beam could squeeze between Musgrave and BushCheneyEtc. The only ones surprised in November will be those who think past is prescient.

I do like your formulation "throw the bums out,' btw. A much politer term than any I've been able to think of! So from now on it's "Throw the Motherbums out!!!"

PS: I do hope that "Betsy's" campaign gets off its Sunday School Picnic tone and starts playing hardball.

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by: JO @ Fri May 16, 2008 at 12:37:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]