New PPP: Udall Up Four As Gardner’s Negatives Grow

Mark Udall, Cory Gardner.

Mark Udall, Cory Gardner.

A polling memo from Public Policy Polling's Tom Jensen spells out bad news for GOP U.S. Senate candidate Cory Gardner:

A new PPP survey in Colorado finds that Cory Gardner’s negatives have spiked following an early advertising campaign focusing on his record of voting to provide subsidies to oil companies.

Key findings from the survey include:

-Gardner’s name recognition has increased from 48% on a PPP poll in mid-March to now 77%. But his negatives are rising a lot faster than his positives- only 35% of voters have a favorable opinion of him now to 42% with a negative one. Previously voters were pretty evenly divided on him at 23/25. For a majority of the voters who’ve gotten to know Cory Gardner for the first time over the last month, the first impression has been a negative one. [Pols emphasis]

-Mark Udall leads Gardner 47/43 in a head to head match up for this fall’s election. Previously Udall’s lead was only 42/40, but as the race has gotten more defined in the last month he’s pushed up much closer to the critical 50% mark…

LCV’s early ad campaign has weakened Gardner as voters have gotten to know him, and put Udall in a stronger position now than he was when Gardner first made his entry into the race.

Polling details here–notable points include that incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Udall leads Gardner in every media market in the state except for Grand Junction and Colorado Springs, with Udall down only by four points in the latter market. The gender gap remains wide and potentially decisive–Udall is favored by women by 12 points, with Gardner up by only five points with men. Yes, it's early. Yes, there is a long way to go until Election Day. But one of the more useful aspects of polling is to consider changes over time; in this case, Gardner's numbers are not moving in a positive direction.

This poll was conducted on behalf of the League of Conservation Voters, and as a result the poll's questions mostly pertain to environmental issues. That said, there are a number of negatives converging on Gardner in the press and as campaign message points, from conservation to immigration to abortion–and all of them are set to do their share of damage.

Still intensely competitive with many months to go, the trajectory of this race now demonstrably favors Udall.

22 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. DawnPatrol says:

    Fantastic news!

    And those wimpy "endorsement" ads from notorious lightweight Rubo Marcio (and the U S Chamber of Commerce) aren't going to help Cory either, any more than the laughable C of C ads for Coffman will help him.

  2. ModeratusModeratus says:

    If you won't pay attention to Rasmussen, why should I care about Public Policy Democrat Polling Inc.?

    • DawnPatrol says:

      You act as though anyone here gives a rat's rump what you think or care about. Don't flatter yourself.

    • I suppose you could ask Mitt Romney about ignoring polls.

    • BlueCatBlueCat says:

      I pay attention to poll averages. While Udall's lead has been consistently small whenever the latest polls are averaged together, Gardner hasn't taken even a small lead in either the individual polls or poll averages at sites like Real Clear. As for Rasmussen did you know that Obama's approval rating has been consistently higher in their polling for quite a while now than elsewhere? So who is it you pay attention to now?

      That said, I suspect the 4 point PPP lead is a bit on the high side (mix seems just a bit Dem heavy) but even a small consistent average lead is usually a pretty good predictor,  though nothing is anywhere near set in stone this far out.  I'm still ready to bet that Udall will win by a small but not razor thin margin. The issue numbers would seem to show that, as we get closer, more people will be made aware from ads that their preferences are more aligned with Udall, less with Gardner.

      • ModeratusModeratus says:

        "the 4 point PPP lead is a bit on the high side"

        The previous poll was two points. So if this is on the high side, does that mean the race hasn't change?

        What then is all the hubbub about?

        • BlueCatBlueCat says:

          You said the polls are narrowing since ACA and BENGHAZI!!! No hubbub.You're the ones trying as hard as you can to create breathless hubbub. Just a reality check. Udall isn't slipping. He's going to beat your boy. And you can gloat over our criticizing Hick all you want but Hick's going to beat whoever you run, too.  Once again, Colorado Repugs are going to underperform, no matter what happens elsewhere, because your state party bench is pathetic.

    • OrangeFreeOrangeFree says:

      Typical head in the sand mentality – don't trust the most accurate polling firm in the nation because it doesn't fit your bias.

    • nota33 says:

      PPP has been proven to be one of the most reliable pollsters. rasmussen on the other hand were dead wrong about the 2012 elections. Udall is beating Gardner in basically every poll. Gardner is in deep trouble. Udall is crushing him with women voters. Women in CO see Gardner as the right wing extremist that he truly is. Tancoredo and Bob Beauprez are both proven LOSERS. In 2006, Beauprez lost the governor's race by 17 points and 2010, Tancredo lost by 15 points. The fact that Gardner has flipped flopper on his previous positions on issues shows that he is too extreme for CO.

      • notaskinnycooknotaskinnycook says:

        Not only did Beauprez lose in '06, he lost to Bill Ritter, who ran the most half-assed, lack-luster campaign I've ever seen and wussed out on another go in '10. And the Rs are going to cast their lot with him again? Man, is their bench thin! I;m not worried at all about Udall. Gardner has 6 months to put his back paw in his mouth a few times, and he does seem to love the taste of it.

  3. horseshit GOP front grouphorseshit GOP front group says:

    This is awesome.  I have heard Cory Gardner described as " everything that is wrong with politics today " more than once, and really think its an apt description.  He dosen't represent the people of CD-4, he's a damn O&G lobbyist.  Come November he'll have to be a lobbyist for real.

  4. dwyer says:

    I am encouraged by the PPP poll.  I wanted to see if the anti-Gardner campaign was having any effect. I don't thnk  it was all the fliping etc that made the difference.  I think that Udall's ad on choice, emphasizing respect, is brilliant.  If Udall wins, I say it is because that  little baby that reached out, touched his shirt and they both smiled.  You can't fake trust or respect and you sure has hell can't get a baby to do something he/she doesn't want to do.



  5. HarleyHarley says:

    I see NBC's Chuck Todd still parroting the right's claim that Udall and Gardner are tied in the polls.

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