Rasmussen: Schaffer Holds Slight Lead

500 LV; MOE +/- 4.5

What makes someone a 'likely voter' these days?

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by: TakeBackTheHouse @ Tue Dec 04, 2007 at 18:42:29 PM UTC

Likely voters

Likely voters are usually someone who has voted in 2 or more of the pat 4 elections.  Or someone who registered more recently, but has voted each time.  Or someone who votes in every  primary in which they are eligible to vote.

At least, this is the typical "pull" from the voter file for likely voters.

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by: and another thing @ Tue Dec 04, 2007 at 19:16:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

As I said before

Udall, needs to pay attention. Udall was ahead (and probably still is). But Schaffer is NOT answering anything that can hurt him (which is nearly everything), while he and the 527's have started attacking Udall. Basically, Schaffer's approach is to not shot himself in the foot.

This WAS udall's to lose and he may slowly do just that.

I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.

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by: windbourne @ Wed Dec 05, 2007 at 03:38:33 AM UTC

So

is Bob just going to let the 527's run his campaign? Is he going to wait to announce his candidacy (for the 8th time) until November of 2008?

Bob apparently doesn't think he can win this on his own merit. This really shows the type of character BS has.

"Suddenly, it may be cool to be American again" - William J. Kole

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by: Go Blue @ Wed Dec 05, 2007 at 03:48:31 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The election's nearly a YEAR away

OK, we know it's gonna be Udall vs. Schaffer. We know that the initial "shot across the bow" by that 527 was laughably inept. But there's 11 months until November 2008: lots of time for (1) Udall to keep working hard and steadily solidify his narrow lead; OR (2) Schaffer to fundraise and demonize Udall (either directly or through 527s) so that the traditional Republican voter advantage in Colorado will work to his advantage.

There's also plenty of time for forces outside Colorado to work on voter turnout and affiliation. We might have a recession - and with a Democratic Congress right now, who will the voters punish for that? We might have good news, or bad news, about Iraq. (Apparently we won't be going to war in Iran.) We might have another terrorist attack, God forbid.

And within a ridiculously short period of time the parties' nomineees for President will also be decided - and we'll see how long their coattails are, or whether either or both of them will be "Swift Boated" or otherwise trashed in the next 11 months.

The lesson of these polls is simply that both candidates need to keep working. To draw any more conclusions than that just seems like idle speculation.  

"Why not do the right thing for the American people, even though it's not exactly what we want." - Speaker Boehner

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by: Half Glass Full @ Wed Dec 05, 2007 at 12:48:31 PM UTC

Apparently we won't be going to war in Iran

Can you be certain of that?

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by: One Queer Dude @ Wed Dec 05, 2007 at 14:53:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Weak, Pols ... as opposed to Weak Polls

Since the beginning, Udall has been Destiny's Senator on this blog. Now, these numbers only show some sort of "natural" advantage for Schaffer - as if registration numbers mean diddlysquat in this sort of race; a la Salazar, a la Ritter. Write it down: Udall is Colorado's Hillary.

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by: Taxosaurus @ Wed Dec 05, 2007 at 23:33:44 PM UTC