CD-2 Is One Expensive Primary

Wow! Now that's a pricey race...

Of course, the limit here is "open House seats", of which there are comparatively few, and probably not many in expensive districts;  also, incumbents can raise this kind of cash a bit easier than new candidates.

Still, it's impressive that all three of the primary candidates made this list.

"We're below sharks and contract killers." -- Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.), speaking on Congress's 9% approval rating

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by: Phoenix Rising @ Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 17:40:24 PM UTC

Gonna be a....

bloody primary when the ad wars start....

"But when I see a 9-11 victim family on television, or whatever, I'm just like, 'Oh, shut up!' I'm so sick of them because they're always complaining."  Glenn Beck  

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by: Arvadonian @ Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 17:43:09 PM UTC

Three candidates spending $1 million

Can anyone recall a House primary with three candidates each spending over $1 million each?  

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by: Iconoclast @ Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 17:53:44 PM UTC

Wasn't aware it was THAT extraordinary

You know who's gotta feel ticked off? Shafroth. Here's a guy who, out of absolutely nowhere, with no name ID or any elected office to his name, and no personal funds, raises the fifth most money in the country. The third most for a Democrat. And guess what? The only two to beat him are in the exact same race. God that must suck.

Primaries are always hard to raise money for if you don't have big mainstream institutions on your side (which only Joan does). The ironic thing is that, even though all three candidates have about $400k banked right now, they all also have expensive campaigns to run between now and next Summer. None (except for Polis, who can add his own bucks) have enough to go on the air for more than a couple weeks. I wonder if Jared will will shoot across the bow with an early ad buy and dare Joan and Will to burn through their hard-raised cash too early?

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by: BoulderDem @ Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 18:52:53 PM UTC

Will Jared shoot across the bow?

If he's smart he will.  He needs to define himself and the race before the other two can.

"But when I see a 9-11 victim family on television, or whatever, I'm just like, 'Oh, shut up!' I'm so sick of them because they're always complaining."  Glenn Beck  

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by: Arvadonian @ Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 19:04:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Definitely

But the $64,000 question is, what will Joan and Will do when Jared does exactly that come next May or something? They only have the cash to be up for a couple weeks now, maybe by then three or four weeks. Do they blow a week to respond to Jared two months before election day?

This is why it's so hard to run against self-funders who actually fundraise, like Polis has. Those who don't fundraise just give the other side an advantage. But those who do and wait until the end to self-fund make it very very hard on their opponents to plan and spend effectively.

I'm assuming Will is just going to hang onto his money until the end no matter what. Classic mistake, but he really doesn't have a way to win anyway.

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by: BoulderDem @ Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 21:18:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Doesn't have a way to win?

You haven't paid much attention to Colorado politics have you? I'd suggest taking a look at the last Democratic primary in CD-2. But then again, you're making the classic mistake of listening to early insiders.

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by: WinstonSmith @ Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 21:54:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Points for staying on message there

but that's pretty full of it. To compare Will with Mark Udall (although I admit they do look somewhat alike) is not really accurate, is it? Besides having the most famous name in Western Democratic politics and a huge fundraising base, Mark was an elected official (state legislative) representing the district when he ran. Mark outraised Gene Nichol by a mile and started with high name ID. How exactly is that even in the same ballpark as Will (a person, I hasten to add, that I admire a great deal and wouldn't mind at all to see in DC)?

I just don't see how someone who starts with zero name ID and will be outraised by BOTH his opponents can imagine a path to victory. I can't think of a race at any level in any place that has those characteristics.

It just seems like Will's entire campaign is based on "I look a little like Mark Udall and I'm an environmentalist." When you're outspent and starting from zero, that isn't enough.

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by: BoulderDem @ Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 22:51:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ever hear of Russ Feingold or Barack Obama?

Obama and Feingold started out way behind and were outspent by large margins and still won.  

So far on the mistake meter Shafroth is the only candidate still at zero

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by: Iconoclast @ Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 22:55:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Neither is comparable

Both Obama and Feingold were long-time state legislators before running.

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by: BoulderDem @ Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 23:01:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Its more than looks: philosophically and tempermentally Shafroth is the most like Udall.

He even has the historic ties to western politics.

Udall was the natural inheritor from Wirth.

Skaggs had worked for Wirth.

I have great affection for Wirth, because he helped me on one of my first pieces of environmental activism.

The CD-2 has a history of great representatives, one that I think Shafroth reflects.  

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by: Danny the Red (hair) @ Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 23:12:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Never said he would be a bad congressman

I like him. But here's the challenge: Name me a single candidate who entered a federal race with zero name ID, in his first race, and who raised less money than either of his opponents. And who won. Any? Maybe Wellstone. But that's it. And Will, bless his heart, is no Paul Wellstone.

There are almost no members of the House who jumped right to federal office for their first run, and the few that are there were famous for other reasons (Mary Bono, Heath Shuler) or spent a fortune to get there.

There's a good reason for that. It's sad, but it's true.

He can't win. Or put a little more accurately, he can't win short of an unprecedented miracle.

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by: BoulderDem @ Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 00:12:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

So what you are saying is that Will Shafroth is the true outsider

The real fighter from outside the system.  Boy Jared is going to be pissed.

Just kidding a bit.

I've decided to back off Jared just a bit, any of the three are acceptable, I just like Will the best. I think his personality is best suited to being a junior house member and actually getting something done.  I understand his chances of winning the primary are the lowest, but I wouldn't put them in the miracle category.

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by: Danny the Red (hair) @ Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 00:22:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Shafroth can conceivably win using the Gray Davis strategy

   I mentioned this once before.  In 1998, Gray Davis was running for Governor of California against two much better financed opponents.  Davis was not given much chance of winning.
  His two opponents spent a fortune trashing one another mercilessly.  Davis spent what little money he had presenting himself as the least soiled alternative to his two opponents who had covered one another in excrement.  
  Does anyone doubt that either JP or JFG will hesitate to go uber-negative against the other? Shafroth could and should follow the Davis strategy.

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by: One Queer Dude @ Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 23:30:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That is the strategy I think he is using

It also fits his personality.  He is a really nice guy, laconic is presentation, but passionate about his goals.

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by: Danny the Red (hair) @ Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 23:39:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

With one additional factor

Unlike Davis, Shafroth has a lot of money.

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by: WinstonSmith @ Wed Nov 28, 2007 at 00:34:57 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

True...

But also unlike Davis, he doesn't have a long record of (elected) public service including being elected statewide 3 times.  (State Controller and Lt. Gov.)

And frankly, while I like OQD's comparison, WS is no Gray Davis.  One could conceivably compare JP to Al Checchi (rich guys w/o much experience) and JFG to Jane Harman (strong leaders but sometimes acerbic women) but having lived in CA through the 98 election, the dynamic is just different IMO...

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by: Dabee47 @ Wed Nov 28, 2007 at 05:05:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I have already received 2 mailings from Polis

The first one was great. "Why things don't change in DC".  It had images of the war all over it and spoke about democrats "who folded" for the war. The second about his Iraq trip and Town Hall Meetings.

It will be interesting to see what else will come out of his Iraq trip.  The blogs (with the exception of this one) are loving him. I am going to attend his Town Hall meeting tonight. Most of my associates in Westminster are really impressed by his stance on Iraq.  I think he owns this issue.

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by: Abraham Van Helsing @ Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 21:09:38 PM UTC

Polis is toast

Too many mistakes to overcome...

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by: mr science @ Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 21:55:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And...

They keep happening. A sign that there is a core problem somewhere in his campaign--whether it is him, his campaign manager, or something else.

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by: WinstonSmith @ Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 22:01:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm not sure of that anymore

I used to think that but the Iraq trip changed my mind a bit. Jared does what we all do in the startup world, we constantly try new idea after new idea and keep the ones that work.

It's a different approach to the careful steps of most campaigns, but I'm not sure it's worse as you get some big mistakes, but also some big successes.

It will be interesting to see how this works...

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

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by: DavidThi808 @ Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 22:08:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Jared is a smart guy, but he doesn't seem to listen to anyone

His go it alone attitude will not work in the House.

I think he has a subtle mind, he has a command of details, but he tends to view his opinion as the only one that has any validity.  His "discovery" that the use of mercenaries was pervasive in Iraq was only a discovery if he wasn't listening to other people.

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by: Danny the Red (hair) @ Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 22:14:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Was it a "discovery"?

Or was it something that Jared already knew but his elevation of it as an issue was made more powerful by his being on scene in Iraq?

I'm fairly certain that Jared knew there were mercenaries in Iraq--I'm also fairly certian that Joe and Jane Citizen back here in the US (yes, even Joe and Jane in Boulder) are fairly uninfomred about how pervasive their usage is--Lord knows you aren't going to get it from the network news.

Polis, wisely in my opinion, used this opportunity to raise the issue.

"But when I see a 9-11 victim family on television, or whatever, I'm just like, 'Oh, shut up!' I'm so sick of them because they're always complaining."  Glenn Beck  

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by: Arvadonian @ Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 23:03:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I hope you're not a political professional

You know that campaign tactical "mistakes" (real or imagined) don't matter to actual voters, right? That if you show me a voter for whom that matters, I'll show you a voter who has already chosen sides for other reasons? That what matters is image and perception of dynamic energy and change?

I think Joan is in trouble. I REALLY want to see an independent poll on this race. The people I talk to up here in Boulder started supporting Joan because "she earned it" or "it's her turn." But many if not most of them are now undecided or leaning toward Jared or Will (mainly Jared, because they don't know anything about Will). To them, she presents no change and no vision (not even a platform). Whereas Jared and to an extent Will are aggressive, risk-taking, determined to change the system. Whether that's realistic or not doesn't matter. It's a powerful image. And in that sense, running a risk-free, error-free campaign is as much a negative as anything.

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by: BoulderDem @ Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 22:59:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

True

Public perception of the mistakes is what matters. Like the mistakes Beauprez's campaign made. Look at the media's reactions so far to see what the effects of these mistakes have been so far. The media has a strong sway over public perception, and they think (rightfully) that Jared's campaign has made many mistakes. That will affect how they cover him, which will affect what voters DO hear.

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by: WinstonSmith @ Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 23:19:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not sure about that

First of all, most voters in CD2 don't read the Denver papers. And second of all, Jared's tactical mistakes have only made the papers a couple times (and that's if you include this latest episode as a mistake ... the papers really covered it as a he said-she said and a Fitz-Gerald attack). We're 8 months from primary day and we're six months in, with 2 maybe 3 stories buried in the back sections of the type you describe. I don't think that moves the needle much at all.

But what you see with Jared is what you get: High risk, high reward, no apology strategies in an aggressive vein. Frankly, that's why I like him, and it's exactly what we need in DC.

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by: BoulderDem @ Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 00:17:44 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

High risk, high return, no apologies

sounds like Bush

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by: Danny the Red (hair) @ Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 00:24:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I sure see a lot of places

that sell the Post and News in Boulder and other CD2 cities. You sure no one is reading them?

"Thank you for putting your rank political motives on display." - ArapaGOP

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by: Aristotle @ Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 14:00:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Suggestion...

from someone who has been doing this for quite a long time---don't write political obituaries when there is more than 6 months before a vote is taken---especially for the person who has the most money.

It is a waste of ink, and often times will bite you in the butt.

"But when I see a 9-11 victim family on television, or whatever, I'm just like, 'Oh, shut up!' I'm so sick of them because they're always complaining."  Glenn Beck  

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by: Arvadonian @ Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 23:06:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

A week is a lifetime in politics

We can talk about how the race would go today. But you are spot-on that we have no idea where it will be come February and especially August.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

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by: DavidThi808 @ Wed Nov 28, 2007 at 04:51:04 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thank god we have...

...the online debate for this race :)

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

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by: DavidThi808 @ Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 22:09:13 PM UTC