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Who Will Win? (CO-6)

by: Colorado Pols

Fri Nov 09, 2007 at 12:17:12 PM MST


The last poll was purely hypothetical, but this one is real now that Rep. Tom Tancredo is officially out. Vote below on who you think will win this race.
Colorado Pols :: Who Will Win? (CO-6)
Poll
Who Will Win the Race for CD-6?
Mike Coffman
Ted Harvey
Wil Armstrong
Mike Collins

Results

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Who Will Win? (CO-6) | 66 comments
Mike Collins, stop voting for yourself!
just kidding

Retirement in action does not equal retirement of beliefs.
He's testing alternate voting methods for the SOS's office

[ Parent ]
Coffman will beat the GOP establishment
The GOP establisment will support Armstrong, paying off his dad. These are the same folks who gave us Pete Coors and Both Ways Bob.

GOP voters and independents will elect Coffman. With his name recognition and likely editorial page support, he won't need much money to win.

[ Parent ]
Coffman's career will end here.
Coffman has finally let his ego overload his political worth.  The good republicans of CD-6 will not let him get away with deserting his post when his mission is not complete. He made this bed and now he should sleep in it. If he continues, Coffman is done.

What most people are asking is who is Wil Armstrong and what have the Armstrong's done for us latelty.  Most people today don't even know who Bill Armstrong is. Bill Armstrong is a fine man but Wil is no Bill.

It looks like Ted Harvey is the only candidate that can win this seat.  He is a solid conservative with a proven record that the other hopefuls will never match.

[ Parent ]
Is that you Ted?
Seriously, there's being positive and then there's not seeing anything except your own candidate. Ted does not walk on water and Mike Coffman is highly respected.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!
[ Parent ]
He wishes
I have known Mike for many years and have a lot of respect for him, but this is a bad move on his part. Ted does not walk on water by a long shot but in this race, in this district he is the one to beat.
[ Parent ]
even if you're not voting for him, you better be nice to him ....
......or he'll make good on his threat to quit his day job right now.
[ Parent ]
smarter than that
Coffman is a smart guy and he knows if he did that his base would shrink to next to nothing.
[ Parent ]
Coffman's in a sweet spot
The poll in this thread shows he's expected to win. Polls on this board have a lot of credibility, because they usually pick the winners early on.

Coffman is a political winner with a clean record as a legislator, treasurer and secretary of state as well as a two-time veteran of wars in Iraq. He's both an Army vet and a Marine. None of his competitors come close.

The establishment apparently will back Armstrong, maybe Harvey. The establishment hasn't picked winners in a long time.

Coffman can run against the establishment and the mortgage bankers and make them look greedy, overly ambitious, incompetent and out of their leagues.

Every politician has ambitions for higher offices. Many seek higher offices while in lower ones. So Coffman's no different than half out our presidential candidates.

If Coffman quits his day job and loses, he is highly marketable. As a former owner of a small business, he can start another business and make a heck of a lot more money in the private sector than in politics.

He has nothing to lose by running for Congress this year.

[ Parent ]
money is not the issue for Coffman
Without a doubt Coffman can go into the private sector and make loads of money. But you obviously know Coffman and know that having a elected position has nothing to do with money and more to do with the spotlight.  I would pretty much say that holds true for about 95% of all politicians.  My point is and has always has been that if he gives up the SOS seat which will go to a dem that his party will not soon forget.

The last time I checked the party helped to get him to where he is today and he is a fool if he thinks his name ID is bigger than the party he represents.

[ Parent ]
"Deserting his post"???
Man, you Harveyites are really desperate, aren't you? First you try to counter Coffman's Marine-in-Iraq credentials with that ridiculous opening line on Harvey's campaign website - "As the son of a Vietnam era fighter pilot..." - and now this cheap shot.

You'll have to do better than that.

"Why not do the right thing for the American people, even though it's not exactly what we want." - Speaker Boehner

[ Parent ]
Rock and a hard place
I seriously doubt that Harvey talks about his father's service to our country to counter Mike Coffman. If you went back over the years and listened to him or read his bio he has mentioned his father's influence from the start.

I think Mike Coffman would make a fine congressman but because of the thrashing we took in the last election he is all we have at the state level.  The decisions Mike has made in the past to give up certain things were his to make for whatever the reasons.  I personally was really pissed when he decided not to run for governor. I had already given him a check and I let him know my thoughts after he dropped out.  But now things are different and we need him where he is at. The timing sucks I agree but I have said it before and I truly believe that he will lose and his career will be finished if he goes down this road.

Mike Coffman should be our next republican governor.

[ Parent ]
He's all you have at the state level?
What happened to Suthers?
[ Parent ]
Nothing to do with CD 6...
but as a Democrat I find it particularly encouraging that the the only Colorado district that could reasonably be described as a swing district, CD 7, doesn't even merit a poll on this site and doesn't even have a Repbublican challenger yet.

Kudos to Ed Perlmutter!

And while I'm handing out kudos, one goes out to John Salazar on holding what was designed to be a safely Republican seat in CD 3.

Republicans are in a world of hurt with the congressional delegation here in Colorado...

Best part, redistricting is just around the corner, so as it stands now, things look to get only worse for them!

"But when I see a 9-11 victim family on television, or whatever, I'm just like, 'Oh, shut up!' I'm so sick of them because they're always complaining."  Glenn Beck  

3 wasn't designed "safely Republican"
More like "lean Republican".  But still, congrats to him for holding it, even if some of the ways he votes are irritating to me.

But kudos to both of them are definitely in order for scaring away challengers so far.

"We're below sharks and contract killers." -- Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.), speaking on Congress's 9% approval rating

[ Parent ]
The NRCC supposedly asked Bentley Rayburn to run in the 7th CD. And I privately think in part to try to dump Doug Lamborn in the 5th.
They promised substantial financial support to Rayburn as well, so I was told.  Rayburn may have been worried he would have been viewed as a carpetbagger if he moved from the 5th CD to the 7th. [Go figure.] My take on the rumored offer was as well that there was an agenda to try to keep the 5th CD a two man race with Crank and Lamborn. Certainly Bob Schaffer would probably have preferred Lamborn be knocked cold at the 5th CD Assembly, and off the primary ballot.  Schaffer doesn't need Lamborn replaying his antics in 2008 as were used in 2006.  It would hurt Schaffer. If the Club for Growth steps into the 5th CD the way they did in 2006, Schaffer, as the CFG's senatorial endorsee, will lose ground. Whether its Crank and/or Rayburn going after the CFG in 2008 (if the CFG is meddling again), Schaffer is going to bleed as well. 

One thing Demogirl had right was that Doug Lamborn and his supporters gave dirty politics a bad name. Visit my home page often and decide for yourself. (Demogirl, you inspired me to join Coloradopols. Won't you please come home?)
[ Parent ]
that would have killed two birds with one stone

[ Parent ]
That's very interesting, and a good analysis


"Why not do the right thing for the American people, even though it's not exactly what we want." - Speaker Boehner
[ Parent ]
7th is not split 1/3
Even though registration says that the 7th is 1/3 R, 1/3 D and 1/3 Unaffiliated, the vast majority of the unaffiliated voters are Denver-transplants who consistently vote D.

In terms of political philosophy that district is more like 80-20 left-leaning.

BB lost his OWN congressional district by 20 points when he ran for governor - admittedly a terrible campaign - but that's an astounding number nonetheless. Makes you wonder how he won it in the first place.

We've got Perlmutter in there for many years to come - unfortunately.

[ Parent ]
"We've got Perlmutter in there for many years to come - unfortunately."
What do you mean by that?
[ Parent ]
I believe stirling is a 'pub
so if s/he lives in CD-7 s/he's probably not happy about Democratic representation.

"Thank you for putting your rank political motives on display." - ArapaGOP
[ Parent ]
Thanks
Couldnt remember the flavor of his previous posts.
[ Parent ]
Oh,
then do you care to explain why Bush carried (narrowly) the area that now constitues the district in 2000 and lost the district by less than 1% in 2004?


"But when I see a 9-11 victim family on television, or whatever, I'm just like, 'Oh, shut up!' I'm so sick of them because they're always complaining."  Glenn Beck  
[ Parent ]
further evidence that C.D. 7 should be very competitive
  In '02, Both Ways very narrowly carried the district, but in '04, did he not win in a cake-walk?
  Unless a district has numbers like C.D. 5 or C.D. 6, the GOP considers it to be a slanted, Democratic district.
[ Parent ]
I'll take a stab at it
Personally, I think it's too early to tell how CD 7 will behave, but I do think that it leans more Democratic than anything.

When BB ran in 2002, it was a Repulbican year both state-wide and nationally.  Allard won his race (by a small margin), Bill Owens won his election in a cake walk.

BB won by what, 121 votes?  If CD7's indies were really competitive, one could make the arguement that BB should have carried a competitive district in a Republican year by a larger margin.

2004 was also a good year for Republicans, though more so nationally than state-wide.  Bush carried Colorado 51-47, but lost CD 7 by what, 50-49?  A district that goes Kerry in a state that goes Bush doen't exactly sound "even cut" to me.

But again, I think it's too soon to tell.  If I had the ability, I would love to do a calculation to see how the district behaved in every race since 2002 on the state and national level.  That would probably give us a better idea.

My gut though says that the indies in CD7 behave more like Democrats than they do Republicans

[ Parent ]
I think it's trending D
The district was drawn evenly (with the very slightest D lean, if I had to give it one) at the turn of the century, but I think years of dissatisfaction with the GOP is trending it more towards the Democratic side of the aisle.

This is a national trend, BTW; not only are former independents and moderate Rs switching, but first-time young voters are overwhelmingly tilting D-ward.  That last trend is hard to reverse; if someone votes one way in two straight elections as a young voter, that voting pattern tends to guide their votes for life.

"We're below sharks and contract killers." -- Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.), speaking on Congress's 9% approval rating

[ Parent ]
I think the younger generations
Typically vote Democrat their first few elections.  Both my parents are strong Republicans-more conservative than me in many cases.  But they voted for McGovern in their first presidential election, and Democratic after that.  But that changed.

People I went to High School with started as Dems, but have since switched to Republican after being in the working world for a while.

I guess that's where the saying came about: "If you're young and Republican you're heartless; if you're old and a Democrat you're dumb".  :)

I'm heartless.

My point is that I think that it's easier for a younger generation to change their voting patterns than it is for a party to repair their brand when it's damaged

[ Parent ]
Just quoting statistics here...
For all that they're worth.

Young voters who vote their first two votes for one party are statistically very likely to stay with that party for life, or at least for as long as they remain as active voters.

"We're below sharks and contract killers." -- Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.), speaking on Congress's 9% approval rating

[ Parent ]
Funny,
my family has had exactly the opposite experience.  Mom was a die hard Repubican (Rockefeller variety); she voted Ike, Nixon, Goldwater, Nixon, Ford---all the way up to Reagan--whom she loathed because of her perception that he had sold out her party to religious conservatives.  She likes the separation of church and state, and she also maintains that any party that doesn't trust her with personal reproductive decisions didn't merit her vote.  She has continued to vote for pro-choice Republicans (most recently Judy Barr-Topinka in the Illinois Governor's race) when she get the chance.

"I've learned a lot of lessons being involved in politics. I also believe that when you are attacked, you have to deck your opponents." -- Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY)
[ Parent ]
"Gimme dem ole time Re-pub-licans!"
Amen.

"Politics determines who has the power, not who has the truth." Paul Krugman, 9/2010
[ Parent ]
Funny how that works...
I guess this exchange says a lot about stats doesn't it:)

Did you hear about Gov. Bla-iosh-whatever from Illinios' new ethical problems?  Too bad Judy Barr-Topinka didn't do better

[ Parent ]
Will any of these candidates dare use the Hotalings and Chuck Gosnell via the Christian Coalition of Colorado for their dirty tricks department?
Have any of them announced their campaign managers?

One thing Demogirl had right was that Doug Lamborn and his supporters gave dirty politics a bad name. Visit my home page often and decide for yourself. (Demogirl, you inspired me to join Coloradopols. Won't you please come home?)
better Hotalings than Tonner
The only thing Sean Tonner can do in a campaign is spend money. I am glad Coffman has picked Phaseline because they have no idea how to run a real campaign.  Mark on the other hand knows how to fight and more importantly how to win.
[ Parent ]
Ahhh shut upa you face
For heavens sake, give it up about the previous campaign already. NOBODY CARES, SO QUIT YOUR WHINING.

What matters is that Ted Harvey is going to win. Look at his legislative record. He is the only proven conservative. Wil might have daddy's money, Coffman may have name ID, but Ted's got the goods.

He's got something anyway...
Most likely it's teh crazy, but Ted's definitely got something.

"We're below sharks and contract killers." -- Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.), speaking on Congress's 9% approval rating
[ Parent ]
Since you've been on Pols a whole 5 minutes...
Let me give you a suggestion. On this site saying things that make no sense with a lot of emphasis don't fly. Yes it works in a lot of media but here it tends to annoy people and it doesn't convince anyone.

With that said, welcome Harvey campaign member to Pols.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

[ Parent ]
Touche!
Ohhh, that was good.

"Why not do the right thing for the American people, even though it's not exactly what we want." - Speaker Boehner
[ Parent ]
Oh and that's funny
"...gave dirty politics a bad name" WHAT? What, did dirty politics have a good name before?
Voters decide what is dirty and what is legit. You libs don't get that, and neither does the media. Despite what people like you think, voters aren't so dumb they cant figure things out pretty well. And whether or not you agree with that, it's reality. Get used to the heat or get out of politics.
PS - use "Reply"
Otherwise we can't figure out who you're responding to.

And by the way - CD-5 Line isn't a liberal AFAIK; (s)he's a Crank supporter.

"We're below sharks and contract killers." -- Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.), speaking on Congress's 9% approval rating

[ Parent ]
Please take a few lessons...
...on blogging and internet protocols, hatchet.

And when you join a party, real or virtual, don't bust into the room roaring.  You only alienate.

"Politics determines who has the power, not who has the truth." Paul Krugman, 9/2010

[ Parent ]
Wow..
You have some other poor soul to pick on now.
[ Parent ]
dbs, are you Ruthie?
What the eff is that post about??????

"Politics determines who has the power, not who has the truth." Paul Krugman, 9/2010
[ Parent ]
I meant...
That you have a history of picking on newbies. Who the f is Ruthie?
[ Parent ]
Ok
Parsing was simply trying to help a newbie.  Parsing doesn't pick on anyone, but he will slap somebody for acting like a fool.  He wasn't in this case.

Ruthie still lurks around.  Used to be a regular poster and he may post under other ID's.

[ Parent ]
I guess...
I never paid attention to Ruthie. Thanks...
[ Parent ]
she just posted something in the last 24 hrs. on the C.D. 2 poll.....
  This is nice.....Gecko, D.D.H.G.L.Q., and Ruthie show up within the last day.  Meanwhile Moonraker lurks in the shodows on here. 
  If we can just get Lamborn Has God-Like Qualities back, our whole Pols' dysfunctional family will be back together in time for the holidays!
[ Parent ]
I am..
Not Ruthie and have no f-ing clue who Ruthie is, guess again.
[ Parent ]
you don't know Ruthie?
  Ruthie was here last year, shilling for Bob Caskey in Grand Jct.
[ Parent ]
bull08 and hatchet - both Ted Harvey?
Both signed up today within an hour of each other. This is like when Stan Garnett created the 3(?) logins to support himself.

So what do you think - is the Ted himself or a supporter?

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

not Ted
I would hope that Harvey and the rest of the candidates would have better things to do than sit around reading blogs.

I live in in the 6th and have enjoyed this stuff for a long time.  I have known Coffman a lot longer than Harvey and only met Armstrong a few times.  I am just giving my opinion as I see it. But if they would like to put me on the payroll I could always use a little spending money.

[ Parent ]
I will! :)
With this sorry crop out there, there has to be room for an anti-war, pro-fiscal responsibility Republican who would try to insist upon sending the Bu$h junta to the Hague to stand trial on war crimes charges....
Is Ron Paul moving to Centennial?


"Why not do the right thing for the American people, even though it's not exactly what we want." - Speaker Boehner
[ Parent ]
Is CD-6 THAT conservative?
I keep hearing that CD-6 is really conservative and this race is over in the primary. Of the three candidates who would be considered the most liberal between Coffman, Harvey & Armstrong?
The times are a-changing
I don't think CD-6 is quite as conservative as people think. In my solidly conservative Colorado House district, a rather liberal Democrat, Angela Engel, came within a whisper of beating out the reactionary Republican we're now saddled with: Spencer Swalm. Swalm is a guy cut in the Harvey mold. The race wouldn't even have been close had the Republicans nominated a more reasonable, centrist candidate.

If the Republicans have the good sense to nominate Mike Coffman, they win this race in a cakewalk. If they keep tacking to the right and nominate Harvey, they probably still win reasonably comfortably, but not quite as much. And long term, they're shooting themselves in the foot as this district becomes more diverse.

"Why not do the right thing for the American people, even though it's not exactly what we want." - Speaker Boehner

[ Parent ]
Do nothing Congress
I just want someone to go to Washington and do something.  Like or hate Tancredo at least he went and stirred things up.  I haven't heard much about Armstrong but between Coffman & Harvey I wonder which one will actually go and try to make a difference instead of getting there and showing up to vote the party line.
[ Parent ]
He stirred things up...
...but consistently missed most votes, it seems.  Lotsa good that did people of the 6th. Unlike most of us, he gets paid whether he comes to work or not.

"Politics determines who has the power, not who has the truth." Paul Krugman, 9/2010
[ Parent ]
They may be changing but
Tancredo won his last election in a cakewalk and who would be to the right of HIM? There may be HD and SD districts within CD6 that are now in play for Dems but a win in the GOP primary for CD6 still pretty much  determines the winner of the general.
[ Parent ]
the "L" word cannot coexist in a sentence with any of those three names....
....but Coffman is probably the one out of those three who just might on some rare occasion buck the right wing party line.
[ Parent ]
any write-in votes for Steve Ward?
  Pols, you're going to have to rerun your C.D. 6 poll now that Steve Ward has said he'll be a candidate.
  Does anyone doubt that the fine hand of the Wad Man was behind this?  Dicky will go to the ends of the earth....or at least to Falleujah.....to find a Republican with military service to try to block Coffman's run.
  But it looks like Coffman is staying in the race.
Is Wadhams that worried about having a strong candidate?


Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!
[ Parent ]
On Ward
Actually, I know Steve Ward was thinking about this race as far back as last spring. He told me of his interest then. I don't think Dick Wadhams has anything to do with him getting in, though I do think the GOP establishment (including Dick) will use it as a lever to try to convince Coffman, again, to stay on as SoS and run instead for Salazar's Senate seat in 2010.
[ Parent ]
The problem with Ted Harvey is that he has a record...
...and he will have to spend all of his time running away from it.

Harvey supported Referendum A, the $2.5 billion blank check water plan that was defeated by Colorado voters.

Harvey opposed referendum C, which provides a TABOR timeout in order to alleviate Colorado's fiscal crisis, but he still wants to gut K-12 funding by scrapping Amendment 23.

Harvey opposed Amendment 27 -- campaign finance reform -- which was passed overwhelmingly by the voters.

Harvey opposed Amendment 35, which raised taxes on tobacco products to finance expanded access to health care for children, the poor, and the uninsured.

Harvey opposed Amendment 37, which required public utilities to obtain 3 percent of their electricity from renewable energy resources by 2007 and 10 percent by 2015.

Harvey supported Marilyn Musgrave's proposed constitutional amendment to legalize discrimination against homosexual couples.

Harvey sponsored HB 1078, would have made it illegal for bookstores and art galleries to display material that could be considered harmful to minors. The Bible and the Song of Solomon would have been deemed illegal as well as famous pieces of literature such as the Scarlet Letter and Great Expectations.

Harvey voted for HB1161, which sharply limited homeowner's ability to sue builders for damages due to shoddy workmanship.

Harvey voted against HB1120 which would have allowed homeowners to bypass covenants requiring bluegrass lawns and to utilize xeriscaping to conserve water.

In his 2004 campaign for HD43, he had so much popular support that not a single resident of HD43 contributed money to his campaign. All of his contributions came from PACS and outsiders.

Harvey has said that all problems resulting from population growth in Colorado are caused by neglect of our highways, and his number one legislative priority was -- not health care, not education, not jobs, not the fiscal crisis -- but the construction of toll roads.

Harvey was once employed by Caldara's Independence Institute, which shows just how low even he can sink. He doesn't want meaningful government at any level. His government exists for only two reasons: to stick its nose into our bedrooms and libraries and tell us what to think, and to make sure that those who were born on third base get to keep believing that that they really hit a triple to get there.

God help us if Harvey makes it to Congress, because he will make Doug Lamborn look like a reasonable guy by comparison.

"I do not feel obliged to believe that the same God who has endowed us with senses, reason and intellect has intended us to forego their use..." -- Galileo Galilei, 1615

Thanks for that list, RFD.
I'd not quite put together who he is. 

Sounds like if we need to know the outcome of an initiative, all we have to do is ask Harvey how he stands.  The opposing side wins.

"Politics determines who has the power, not who has the truth." Paul Krugman, 9/2010

[ Parent ]
Don't forget Steve Ward
You should add Col. (and State Sen.) Steve Ward to this poll. He said in an interview published in Saturday's Rocky that he plans to run. Here's the link: http://www.rockymoun...

I think the GOP establishment will use Ward's entry to try to persuade Coffman to hold off, offering as a carrot an uncontested nomination for Salazar's Senate seat in 2010. They don't want to lose the SoS slot to the Dems, after all, and Ward offers Iraq War experience and strong conservative views.

If I'm right about that scenario, then I think Ward is the favorite. If not, then he'll be battling Coffman over the veteran angle.

In any case, Ward appears to be a candidate.

Ward's a funny, cynical guy without any state or national experience
He's a Marine.
He's a former mayor of Glendale.
He's a former Arapahoe County Commissioner.
He's in the state senate.

Don't know  whether he's done anything oustanding in the private sector, but he looks like someone who's been institutionalized by the government for a long time.

He's interested in the office, not in issues per se far as I can tell.

Anybody have more on this guy. Thank him for his service in Iraq and suggest he get some experience in the state senate.

[ Parent ]
Ward can't run for election to S.D. 26 if he's going for C.D. 6
who's gonna run in his place?  Joe Stengel ready to stage his comeback?
[ Parent ]
Who Will Win? (CO-6) | 66 comments
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