July 18, 2013 11:31 AM UTC

Interesting Results (and Strategy) Revealed in New Statewide Poll

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• by: Colorado Pols

Democrat Pat Quinn, who surprised political observers by jumping into the State Treasurer race earlier this month (on the same day that Democrat Betsy Markey announced her candidacy) took another unusual step today. This morning Quinn released the full results of a statewide poll that, spin from the campaign aside, really aren't all that favorable to the little-known Broomfield Mayor.

The strategy here is obviously to try to get potential supporters and donors to believe that Quinn is truly a viable candidate, though the results of the poll really don't work out that way. As the polling memo explains (Anzalone/Liszt/Grove did the survey), however, things look good for Markey and not as good for incumbent Republican Walker Stapleton:

Walker Stapleton is unknown and ill-defined. Stapleton enters the race with no incumbency advantage – only 22% of voters know who he is (11% favorable / 11% unfavorable), including only 23% of Republicans who can rate him. Independent voters are among the least familiar, only 16% can rate him.

Once voters learn very basic information about him (his partisanship and his job title), more voters are able  to  rate  the  job  he’s  doing  – 36%  approve  of  the  job  he’s  doing,  though  52%  are  still  not able  to  rate   him.

The memo tries to make the case that Quinn might be better for Democrats than Markey because of the latter's "high negatives," but the numbers aren't really that bad for her.

The numbers mean little for Quinn no matter the spin, because he has to be able to beat Markey in a primary first — and this poll doesn't address that issue.

Let's break down some of the more interesting numbers: 

Stapleton should be really concerned that his name ID is so weak compared to Markey, who hasn't been in elected office since 2010.

Markey has a total unfavorable rating of 21%, but only 9% is "very unfavorable." As we've said time and again in this space, the most important numbers to look at in any early polling are the "very favorable" and "very unfavorable" ratings, because those are better indicators of how much potential movement a candidate might have in either direction.

91% of respondents can't rate Quinn because they have no idea who he is (giving him a pathetic 9% name ID). That's not surprising, and while you could argue it shows that he has a clean slate, there's no question Quinn would rather have a higher name ID even if it came with some negative ratings.

The one candidate who should really be concerned about the results in this poll is Democratic Attorney General candidate Don Quick, whose name ID is the same 9% as Quinn. For someone who has spent eight years as the Adams County District Attorney, those are absolutely horrendous numbers.

44% of respondents say they are "already supporting Markey." Again, great news for Markey, and bad news for Quinn and Stapleton.

The other thing this poll shows, which doesn't appear in the numbers, is that Quinn is clearly willing to spend his own personal money on a campaign. Polls like this are expensive, and he hasn't been a candidate long enough to really raise the money to cover these costs.

Complete poll results are here. The full press release (in all its SIC-ness) follows, along with the polling memo.

PRESS RELEASE

Pat Quinn for Treasurer
For Immediate Release

Contact: Madison Cassels
July 18, 2013

Quinn Releases Full Poll Results-Treasurer’s Race Wide Open
Stapleton Unknown – Markey High Negatives

Broomfield, Colorado Pat Quinn, businessman and Mayor of Broomfield, released the full results of a state wide survey today that shows the race for Treasurer is wide open.

"If the next treasurer is to create jobs and effectively manage the states money, the people must trust their government. An open, honest government is one that people can trust," stated Pat Quinn. "I plan to campaign as I will govern and transparency is the key to both effective government and winning this election."

Quinn took the unusual step of posting the full results of a survey conducted by acclaimed national polling firm Anzalone Liszt Grove Research to underscore his commitment to transparency. In addition to the full poll results, a memorandum summarizing the results of the survey was also posted on line at www.patquinnfortreasurer.com.

Pat Quinn ran a small business for over 20 years and knows what it takes to create and maintain jobs. Pat’s clients range from individual entrepreneurs to large companies. As Mayor of Broomfield Pat Quinn balanced 6 budgets and help guide Broomfield through the recession. Quinn started his career in public service as a community activist fighting to maintain open space in Broomfield. Pat is a certified public accountant who lives in Broomfield with his wife Carleen and the two youngest of Pat's five daughters.

To view the full survey results go to www.patquinnfortreasurer.com

 

POLLING MEMO

The Anzalone Liszt Grove Polling
Memorandum:
July 11, 2013
To: Interested Parties
Fr: Anzalone Liszt Grove Research
Re: Findings from Statewide Polling in Colorado

The race for state Treasurer in Colorado is wide open and no candidate has sizable advantage at this point. Current Treasurer Walker Stapleton has no personal branding and is virtually unknown by voters. Though Broomfield Mayor Pat Quinn has lower name ID than former Congresswoman Betsey Markey, both perform similarly against Stapleton. This is partly because Markey's name identification is composed equally of favorable and unfavorable ratings.

Key Findings
1. Walker Stapleton is unknown and ill-defined. Stapleton enters the race with no incumbency advantage – only 22% of voters know who he is (11% favorable / 11% unfavorable), including only 23% of Republicans who can rate him. Independent voters are among the least familiar, only 16% can rate him.

Once voters learn very basic information about him (his partisanship and his job title), more voters are able  to  rate  the  job  he’s  doing  – 36%  approve  of  the  job  he’s  doing,  though  52%  are  still  not able  to  rate   him.

2. Betsy Markey enters the race with high negatives. Betsy Markey is the best-known candidate in the Treasurer’s  race  to  this  point,  however the heavy Republican investment against her in her past congressional races have had a lasting impact – just 20% of voters are favorable towards her, and 21% of voters are unfavorable towards her.

3. Despite Pat Quinn having low name recognition, he and Markey begin in similar positions on the ballot against Stapleton. Currently only 9% of voters are able to identify Broomfield Mayor Pat Quinn – though  despite  this,  he  begins  the  Treasurer’s  race  against Walker  Stapleton  virtually  tied,  taking  38%   of  the  vote  to Stapleton’s  41%.

Betsy Markey only fares two points better, trailing Stapleton 40% / 41% initially. Both candidates have strong leads with Democratic base voters, and Stapleton does well among Republicans.

4. Balanced positives move Quinn and Stapleton into a dead-heat. Once voters hear positive biographical information about all three candidates (found in Appendix B), voters move to dead-even – 44% Quinn / 44% Stapleton.

When voters hear more about Markey and Stapleton, Stapleton expands his lead to 47% / 44%, gaining six points while Markey only gains three.

Anzalone Liszt Grove Research conducted n=400 live telephone interviews with likely 2014 voters in Colorado. Interviews were conducted between June 27-30, 2014. Respondents were selected at random, with interviews apportioned geographically based on past voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error for these results is +/- 4.9% with a 95% confidence level.

Appendix A: Vote Progression by Candidate

Quinn vs. Stapleton Markey vs. Stapleton Net Quinn advantage over Markey
Current vote
38% – 41%
40% – 41%
-2
Informed vote
44% – 44%
44% – 47% +3

Appendix B: Positive Candidate Bios
Democrat Pat Quinn is the mayor of Broomfield and spent more than thirty years
running a small business and helping some of Colorado's most successful
businesses to create jobs. Quinn is non-partisan and believes leadership begins with
listening. As mayor, he balanced the budget six years in a row and kept
Broomfield's economy strong during the recession. Quinn began his career in public
service as a community activist fighting to protect open space. As Treasurer, Quinn
will be the first-ever Certified Public Accountant to serve as Treasurer and will
bring his leadership and background to get Colorado working.

Republican Walker Stapleton is the current Treasurer. Before becoming Treasurer,
Stapleton helped run several public and private companies, serving as CEO and
Chief Financial Officer. Stapleton says he learned at an early age the importance of
giving back to the community and comes from a long line of public servants. He
has continued his family's commitment to Colorado. Stapleton says his priorities are
to safely and responsibly invest Colorado's tax dollars, cut wasteful spending, and
bring a higher level of accountability and transparency to government.

Democrat Betsy Markey is businesswoman and former Congresswoman. Markey
says that her running businesses of all sizes — from a large software firm to a small
town coffee shop — gives her the leadership the Treasurer's office needs. Markey
started a small business that grew to become one of America's fastest growing
private businesses. In Congress, she helped small businesses cut through red tape, helped seniors and veterans get the benefits they deserve, and cut spending. As Treasurer, Markey will help cut wasteful spending from state government.