The Big Line Updated

With the 2013 legislative session behind us, we've updated The Big Line with our latest projections. Of note:

  • It looks more and more as though Republican Scott Gessler will run for Governor rather than Secretary of State (as we suggested last year), so we've moved his line "off" the board for SOS.
  • With Gessler off the board, the race for SOS is anybody's guess. Maybe Democrat Ken Gordon will arise from his five-month slumber, or perhaps there will even be a Joe Neguse sighting. Either way, the big news will be if Jefferson County Clerk & Recorder Pam Anderson decides to enter the race, as expected.
  • There aren't any real scenarios whereby Democratic Sen. Mark Udall does not get re-elected, so we've adjusted his odds accordingly.
  • We've changed CD-6 to make Democrat Andrew Romanoff a slight favorite over Republican Rep. Mike Coffman. Romanoff is off to a strong start, and the DCCC seems particularly enthused about a race Democrats probably should have won in 2012.

13 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. Gray in Mountains says:

    No Szabo?

  2. RedGreenRedGreen says:

    Cynthia Coffman isn't still thinking about an AG run?

  3. AristotleAristotle says:

    I wouldn't give the edge to Romanoff. First, Coffman's a multiterm incumbent, including one win after CD-6 was made more competitive. And while there's a kind of "first term" quality because of that, I think he still has a greater incumbent's advantage than the usual first-termer would. Second, Romanoff's refusal of PAC money is simply going to hurt him more than it helps. The battle over money in politics was lost.

    For those reasons, I would swap Romanoff's and Coffman's places. Coffman may spit out a few more gaffes, but it takes money to take advantage of that.

    • OrangeFreeOrangeFree says:

      First, Coffman, swimming in funding, took 49% against an empty shirt that had no money. There is no incumbant edge because of that.

      Second, Romanoff's refusal of PAC money is better politically then taking it this go 'round. Nothing would hurt Romanoff more than a Coffman campaign ad to the tune of "When he was running for the Democratic nomination, he refused to take PAC money to cut off the influence of Special Interests. NOW he's taking it just so he can get elected…" He also seems to be doing just swimmingly now funding-wise even with the pledge. 

      Third, he will have the full force of the DCCC behind him in a district that now swings his way, which will probably force the RNCC to back off eventually (especially if other, more important districts need the help more).

      I think the Pols assestment is pretty accurate for the time being. 

       

      • BlueCatBlueCat says:

        Coffman wasn't swimming in the kind of money he'll be swimming in this time because his team didn't take Miklosi seriously until very late in the game. They didn't fight tooth and nail because they didn't think they needed to and they were  proved right. Miklosi got way too close for comfort, though, and Romanoff is a much stronger candidate. To think that a  Miklosi getting close in that election under those circumstances means a good candidate can win with a few more bucks in a very different 2014 election would be a big mistake.

        I don't believe it's not winnable for Romanoff but I agree with Ari; edge to incumbent Coffman, already re-elected once in the new CD6 and who's seat will be defended by the state and national GOP to the death.

        • DavieDavie says:

          It'll be interesting to see how much differently Coffman runs his campaign in 2014.  His "New! Improved!" voting (or maybe just PR) record will be used as a defense against the 2012 Coffman who was the invisible man after his many gaffes and public embarrassments over his old Tea Party/Birther persona.

          But he'll definitely have to make public appearances this time around, and even a bunch of debates with Andrew.

          Andrew can run on his record in the Colo House.  Coffman will have to run away from his in the US House.

      • catpuzzle says:

        Agree with most of this – I don't think Romanoff could flip on the PAC moeny (again).  I think he'll do fine with money – lots of national help.

         

        Do think Coffman still has a slight advantage though – being an incumbent is a powerful thing for resources in a Congressional race. It's why they don't lose much. And which Coffman is vulnerable in the seat, I'm not sure he's weak. It'll also be a midterm election, which is going to help Coffman. Romanoff would probably have been in better shape running in 2012. 

  4. DavidThi808DavidThi808 says:

    I seriously would like to see Ralphie as the Dem candidate for SOS. He'd do a damn good job running it and he would fight like hell to win. Plus it would give the western slope a state-wide officeholder.

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