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Senate Race Drops to #3; Schaffer Touts Mythical Poll

by: Colorado Pols

Fri Sep 21, 2007 at 09:46:29 AM MDT


UPDATE: Here's the memo on the poll. Interestingly, one of the items in the memo notes that "Voters already know that Mark Udall is a liberal." Okay, so voters know Udall is a liberal, yet they still prefer him to Schaffer? That's good news for Bob?

From The Washington Post blog "The Fix":

3. Colorado (R): The open seat race between Rep. Mark Udall (D) and former Rep. Bob Schaffer (R) drops two slots this month but the fundamental dynamic of the race remains unaltered. Republicans are already beginning to paint Udall as a "Boulder liberal" while Democratsd are making the counter argument that Schaffer is far more conservative than the average Colorado voter. Having huddled with Schaffer earlier this week, we came away impressed by his plainspokeness and his -- to our mind -- smart strategic plan to run as a reform-minded candidate. Republicans are pushing back hard on the idea that this race is Udall's to lose. Schaffer's campaign released a poll that showed him trailing Udall by just two points in a three-way race. And they make the argument that the Democrats who have been elected in the last few years have run as conservatives, putting to lie the idea that the state had fundamentally changed its ideological underpinnings.(Previous ranking: 1)

Schaffer released a poll showing him two points back in a three-way race? It turns out that this third candidate is a Green Party candidate, Bob Kinsey, who picks up seven - yes, 7 - percentage points in the Schaffer poll.

That's all well and good for Schaffer, but no third party candidate received more than 1% of the vote in the 2006 gubernatorial race or the 2004 Senate race. Even the most well-known and well-funded Green Party candidate in recent history, Ralph Nader, managed just 5% of the vote in Colorado when he ran for President in 2000. Touting this three person poll is beyond ridiculous, because a Green Party candidate in Colorado will be lucky to get 2% of the vote.

This three person poll is in fact the same Schaffer poll that shows him five points behind Udall in a straight-up matchup, which is obviously bad news for a Republican in a Republican state.

Schaffer apparently does much better in a three-way race with a mythical strong third-party candidate. Perhaps he should poll on a pretend four-way race to see if that puts him over the top. Talk about grasping for straws.
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Senate Race Drops to #3; Schaffer Touts Mythical Poll | 64 comments
Is Bob Kinsey really running?
That putz helped suck away votes from Stan Matsunaka in 2004 against Marilyn Musgrave.

"It is hard enough to remember my opinions, without also remembering my reasons for them!" - Nietzsche  
Other Way Around, Actually
In 2004, Bob Kinsey was the only announced candidate against Marilyn Musgrave for months and months.

Only at the last minute did Matsunaka (after obviously failing in 2002) decide to give it another half-hearted try. So, it can be argued that it was Matsunaka sucking votes away from Kinsey.

The Democrat Party does not own anyone's vote, it does not own progressive voters -- Bob Kinsey has the right to make an appeal to the citizens of Colorado as much as Udall or Schaffer.

If Mark Udall continues to materially support the Bush-ordered occupation of Iraq, if he continues his belligerent stand towards Iran, and if he continues his steady move to the right, then liberal, progressive and centerist voters should have a principled alternative.

[ Parent ]
Thank you greens for giving us george bush
Every time COPIRG comes to my door I slam it in their face because Nader gave us President Bush instead of President Gore. 

Nader even had the temerity to say there was no signicant difference between Bush and Gore.

Grow up and stop crying.  Udall voted against authorizing the war--that's left (and smart) enough for me.  He isn't going to win state wide by skipping through a field of daisies hand in hand with Recreate "68" and the rest of the lunatic fringe.

[ Parent ]
Nader did NOT give us George Bush
The dumb-ass people who voted for Nader gave us George Bush. Don't shoot the messenger.

Where you gonna go for business reporting software?
[ Parent ]
Fire away
http://sfgate.com/cg...

Nearly one in 10 of Nader's major donors -- those writing checks of $1, 000 or more -- have given in recent months to the Bush-Cheney campaign, the latest documents show. GOP fund-raisers also have "bundled" contributions -- gathering hefty donations for maximum effect to help Nader, who has criticized the practice in the past.


"It is hard enough to remember my opinions, without also remembering my reasons for them!" - Nietzsche  
[ Parent ]
Let's not blame the dumbass people who voted for Bush...

[ Parent ]
I don't blame them (for the most part)
He still represents 30% of this country's people.  I do not share their values--but he does represent them.

10% of the people are basically conservative, but still rational enough to recognize he has been a disaster.

10% of the people were buffaloed by the "compassionate conservative" brand.

The greens on the other hnd disagreed with Bush's politics and preferred to play spoiler, equating Al Gore with George Bush.  Does anyoe seriously believe that?

I will never forgive Nader.

[ Parent ]
I thought all parties were trying to be "spoilers."

[ Parent ]
No D's and R's are trying to win.
Other parties are just trying to prove a point, move the major parties or glorify themselves.

I understand trying to move the dominant party--but Ralph Nader said it didn't matter who was president, Bush or Gore, his goal was to punish the D's he knew he couldn't win. That is a spoiler.

[ Parent ]
You're certainly entitled to your anger.

[ Parent ]
You're damn right
we are in Iraq because George bush wanted us there.

George Bush would not have been elected if it wasn't for nader.

ergo Nader is partially responsible for iraq.

[ Parent ]
Nader intentionally f'd Gore
I wish I could supply more detail, but I can't

I think it was a radio reporter who looked deeply into Nader's effect on the 2000 election.  Among the sources and interviews, the claim was made that Clinton and Gore did not meet Nader's need for ego stroking; i.e., they didn't phone him when there was an issue that Ralph might have weighed in on.

Ralph had the ear of most presidents since perhaps LBJ.  Clinton and Gore more or less blew him off. Ralph sought, and got, revenge.

Thank you, Ralph!

"Collective fear stimulates herd instinct and tends to produce ferocity toward those who are not regarded as members of the herd." -Bertrand Russell

[ Parent ]
And using a similar train of logic, Gore is partially responsible for Iraq, too.

[ Parent ]
No, that would be a very dissimilar train of "logic."
Ralph did something intentionally, Gore was the victim of that intentionality. Active vs. passive.

"Collective fear stimulates herd instinct and tends to produce ferocity toward those who are not regarded as members of the herd." -Bertrand Russell

[ Parent ]
It seems to me that Gore actively ran a losing campaign.

[ Parent ]
Gore ran an awful campaign
The only thing that made Gore's campaign look less awful was Kerry's '04 campaign.
[ Parent ]
That's what happens when you hire losers....
...Ed Shrum (??).  I don't understand fully how a candidate must use Dem approved consultants even though, like Shrum, they never win a race. Said consultants always own ad agencies, printing companies, etc. They get paid twice.

Maybe someone here can amplify on this.

"Collective fear stimulates herd instinct and tends to produce ferocity toward those who are not regarded as members of the herd." -Bertrand Russell

[ Parent ]
Shrum sucks
Drew weston(?) hammers him in "The Polical Brain" (I recommend the book BTW).

Gore was so overpackaged he seemed wooden. 

Ever since the election you've seen what kind of candidate he could have been

[ Parent ]
amen on Nader
His "I want to send message" them was as useless as it was asnine.  The only message Washington gets is who won (witness Bush and his mythical mandate).

Shrum was another one of those parasitic DC insider types who kept getting hired because he was glib rather than effective.  Writing speeches for Massachusetts Democrats does not mean you know squat about running a campaign for the whole country.

[ Parent ]
I agree with your assessment of Gore's transformation.

[ Parent ]
I don't think his substance changed
he's only taken off the politcal shrink rap that kept him from saying what he thought.
[ Parent ]
Funny...
I decided to leave out the word "plastic" as a descriptor for Gore from my last post.
[ Parent ]
Ever since the election you've seen what kind of candidate he could have been
And I cry over what might have been.....
[ Parent ]
There but for Katherine Harris.
Of course, she didn't act alone.  But that's a good a place to start as any.

Imagine how that nobody sitting in her condo on Longboat Key wishing she were senator changed the world.

"Collective fear stimulates herd instinct and tends to produce ferocity toward those who are not regarded as members of the herd." -Bertrand Russell

[ Parent ]
I don't blame Katherine Harris
  She certified Bush for the same reason that a dog licks its private parts.....just because it can!
  Rhenquist (or as Nixon used to call him, Renchberg), Scalia, Thomas, Kennedy and O'Connor are to blame more than Katherine Harris.
[ Parent ]
Third Party Votes
Actually third parties have done better than 1 or 2% in Colorado.  In the last Congressional race, DeGette's Green Party candidate, Tom Kelly got 23% of the vote.
[ Parent ]
Bob wins in a five way race!!!
that includes the tooth fairy and a unicorn.
The only reason this race went down in the rankings...
...was because Virginia and New Hampshire got popular, well-known candidates to run for those senate seats.  Especially since in Virginia, John Warner decided to retire at the end of his term.
Warner is a much better candidate then Udall.
Mark has spent considerable time working and developing strong relations with rural and republican parts of the state.  Udall on the other hand isn't that defined outside of his district.
[ Parent ]
You are correct about Mark Warner.
Anybody would have said that John Warner exiting the Senate Race and Mark Warner would have been a Godsend for Dems for gaining in the Senate and gaining in Virginia in particular. It made it go from almost a sure Republican hold to an almost sure Democratic pickup. 

Though Udall is getting out there and making things happen.  He has been starting to reach out.  He needs to do it more though.

[ Parent ]
Warner was governor of the state!
For god's sake, of course, Warner knows Virginia. He ran the damm thing.
UR right, Mark Udall has to walk this state and soon...but you can't compare the two. One is a congressman and the other was governor.
[ Parent ]
sounds silly but
A dedicated Green candidate gives the Bninski vote somewhere to go and will promote the anti-Udall left message. Mark doesn't need to lose even 2%.
no, he cannot afford to lose even two percent
Kinsey could very well be Colorado's local version of Ralph Nader!
[ Parent ]
The Bninski vote?
Actually, Carolyn Bninski isn't an active Colorado Green Party member.  How about calling Bob Kinsey, what he is, a fresh alternative.  Unless, you are ready for war with Iran, which is what Udall is pushing.
[ Parent ]
Just 2 percent?
The 2% that Udall has to lose...or is that 10%?... is right in his backyard of Boulder. While the Boulder Democratic Party has long been busy trying on its Republican finery, courtesy of do-no-wrong DINO Ken Salazar, fact is that the left-wing may not be bothered to come out and vote for Mark, much less make calls and rin doorbells, as he edges further and further to the right, meanwhile accomplishing precisely nothing in Washington! Do we need another Salazar? What difference could it possibly make?

Where is it written that people sent from Colorado are barred from sponsoring legislation or otherwise achieving something noteworthy in Washington? It doesn't seem to affect people from Montana, to name one nearby state (thinking Mike Mansfield, majority leader, here). But name one accomplishment or one leadership post achieved by one Colorado senator or representative in, say, the last century! (Sorry, Sen. Tabor was before our cutoff!)

Upcoming MoveOn.org ad - pointed at Udall among others


Where you gonna go for business reporting software?
MoveOn.org
Socialism in Action

NoBama .... NoBamaCare either
[ Parent ]
Gecko, you ever see "the princess bride"?
"I do not think that means what you think it means"
[ Parent ]
You lost me, man.
Never heard of the princess bride. Is that a movie?

NoBama .... NoBamaCare either
[ Parent ]
Yeah about 15 years old
Its a "family movie"

The bad guy keeps doing things to the good guy and every time the good guy keeps coming back.  The bad guy keeeps saying "its inconceivable"(with kind of a sylvester the cat spitting lisp).  finally oneof the guys with the bad guys says "I do not think that word means what you you think it does"

Moveon is left, but that doesn't make it socialist.  Sometimes there is a tendency to call anyone to yor left a socialist--which isn't accurate.

[ Parent ]
On could it say
It's inconceivable!

"Suddenly, it may be cool to be American again" - William J. Kole
[ Parent ]
And the lesson from all that is
If you can't learn and keep saying the same dumb thing, you end up drinking the poison and dying. SO Gecko, for the sake of your own health, open your mind to new ideas...

Where you gonna go for business reporting software?
[ Parent ]
"Inconcievable!"
[ Parent ]
Thanks I didn't see your post before I explained it

[ Parent ]
Okay, so voters know Udall is a liberal, yet they still prefer him to Schaffer?
  That's an excellent point.  If a known liberal has a two to five point lead in Colorado (a solid conservative Red State), where does the B.S. campaign go from there?
  Their only possible winning card to play was to scream the word L-I-B-E-R-A-L as loud and as often as possible, and hope that that carried Bob across the finish line.
  Schaffer and the Wad Man may just want to start working on Plan "B" for a campaign strategy. 
gd....the dems are recreating 1968!
Quite apart from the moral issues, the draft, the assassinations, the dems lost in "68 because the party split....the left against the war and the rest supporting Humphrey/Johnson....I thought it couldn't happen again because the draft is gone and the kids have the right to vote at 18.  BUT, if the primaries become where the fight is...the party could splinter.  Who is that with the  old sh.. eating grin....why, it is..Wadhams....

Udall is being painted as a liberal for the general...and a "soft on war" for the primary....this is going to be an alley fight....and again, gd.....the dems only fight dirty when they are fighting each other.....the repubs hold the money...and then run and win.....

hgg, ten months ago, the dems in this state and nationwide were...golden...now..not so much.

[ Parent ]
Udall will not have a primary challanger
We'll bitch about Udall not voting to bring the troops home, we'll pine for a better choice, and in November we'll suck it up and go vote for him.

Democracy is compromise and the art of the possible, not I get to have things exactly my way (unless you're George Bush).

Where you gonna go for business reporting software?

[ Parent ]
I'd rather Udall have a primary challenger from the left.....
...than a general election, third-party challenger from the left. 
  Let the antiwar activists run Mike Miles or someone else acceptable to "Be the Change" and MoveOn.org.  It will probably end up a lot like the '04 Senate primary, and then the Dems can unify for the general election.
  Otherwise, this probably will just keep festering until Nov. '08.
[ Parent ]
I'd like to see that too
The thing is, Udall could lose that primary. Iraq is going to keep spiralling down and Udall will have to own his votes while the challanger can talk in generalities.

Where you gonna go for business reporting software?
[ Parent ]
I don't think Udall would lose the nomination in a primary....
  First, outside of Boulder and Capital Hill in Denver, most Dems in this state are not that liberal. 
  Second, I would venture to say that most Dems (other than those who post on ColoradoPols) are very angry about Iraq, somewhat disappointed that Udall is not towing the Dennis Kucinich/MoveOn.org party line, but understand the reality of the situation and part of that reality is that with Bob Schaffer in the Senate, the war in Iraq will escalate and we will be in Iran in '09.
  Third, how much money did Mike Miles raise and spend in '04?  Can he compete with Udall in the money race?  I doubt it.  Is there a hard-left millionaire who is willing to self-finance a U.S. Senate race on the issue of Iraq?
  Ned Lamont pulled off his primary win in Conn. last year because Lieberman went way beyond anything Udall or the Salazar brothers have done on Iraq.  Ned Lamont self-finished a very expensive primary race in a decidedly Blue State with a lot of left-wing Democrats.  And then he went on to lose the general election as the Democratic nominee is a very Blue State.
  The dynamics in Colo. are very different.  My money is on Udall winning a primary challenger from the left.
[ Parent ]
I agree he would likely win
But it would not be a slam-dunk

Where you gonna go for business reporting software?
[ Parent ]
Wishy-Washy DLC Democrats Will Lose America Congress & The White House
"... fact is that the left-wing may not be bothered to come out and vote for Mark, much less make calls and ring doorbells, as he edges further and further to the right ..."

Amen. Never again will I make another phone call or knock on another door -- and I did both by the hundreds -- for some namby-pamby spineless blank slate like John Kerry.

What continues to baffle is that it doesn't matter if you're Udall or Liebermann or DICK WADhams; if you run as a Democrat, you're going to be painted a "liberal."

Rather than taking this as an honor, pointing out that General George Washington praised the United States for creating "an enlarged and liberal policy worthy of imitation," and saying "well, I have to say that, yes, I support the Constitution and America's history, even if Bob doesn't," they fall all over themselves to run as far away from those principles as possible. They let the GOP frame the debate, set the stage, and print up the brochures. And then they wonder why they lose.

For the record, Mike Miles was an almost inconceivably brilliant candidate: West Point Grad, Army Ranger, Fluent in Slavik languages, a counter-terrorism expert, State Department diplomat, educator, principal, superintendent ... that we lost his representation in the Senate for a potato farmer/lawyer is a shame on US, not Mike.

The Democratic base is shattered already. If they want to pull it back together, they'd better find some principles, and PDQ. Impeachment would be a great start.

[ Parent ]
John's the potato farmer...
John's the potato farmer, not Ken.  And Leroy's the rancher.  But they're all damn smart and damn good Democrats.
[ Parent ]
OQD UR right on target
I think ur analysis is excellent.  I also think that you have stated what the goal has to be for the Democrats...it is not just get us out of Iraq, it is keep us out of Iran......which is what I think the dem win in 06 has helped to do...up to now.

The better the dems do nationwide, the better for Udall. As the dems slip, the better for Schaffer......Udall/have to also  decide if they  are  going to go after Schaffer now...they run the risk of putting Schaffer out of the race and bringing Hank Brown in...a much tougher opponent.

Mike Miles was great; however,  calling Salazar a potato farmer does a disservice to Miles.  Miles is not a spoiler; he is that rare individual, a patriot. Didn't his people support Perlmutter in CD2? And Miles' issues: universal health care and get us out of Iraq are front and center, now.

Salazar is from one of the oldest families in Colorado; a respected lawyer who was the first democrat to win a statewide race since Romer back in the early ninties...and had the establishment money.

As for being labeled liberals, the repubs turned liberal into a dirty word through an advertising campaign which was dependent on the use of the vast electronic noise machine....TV but more importantly radio...which the repubican party controls...the dems have no such electronic megaphone.  A woman in Grand Junction, a senior citizen, wrote a beautiful essay for the Post a few years back on what it meant to be a liberal.  It was definitive and archived and went no further.

[ Parent ]
JFK on being a liberal
Speaking to the NY Liberal Party - yes, Virginia, there used to be such a thing - on September 14th, 1960, in part:

But if by a "Liberal" they mean someone who looks ahead and not behind, someone who welcomes new ideas without rigid reactions, someone who cares about the welfare of the people -- their health, their housing, their schools, their jobs, their civil rights, and their civil liberties -- someone who believes we can break through the stalemate and suspicions that grip us in our policies abroad, if that is what they mean by a "Liberal," then I'm proud to say I'm a "Liberal."

There's a lot more.  Here's the whole thing: http://www.pbs.org/w...

"Collective fear stimulates herd instinct and tends to produce ferocity toward those who are not regarded as members of the herd." -Bertrand Russell

[ Parent ]
That i a good quote.
Thanks for pointing it out.
[ Parent ]
Ugh.
I shudder every time I hear that quote.  For whatever reason it gets stuck in candidates' heads and then, when you least expect it and at the worst possible moment, it comes gushing out.  The opponent just cuts off the "If by liberal you mean..." part and puts up a TV ad with "I'm a liberal!  I'm a liberal!"  DISASTER in Colorado.

Love the sentiment, hate the quote.

[ Parent ]
I'm a liberal
and Im not going to run away from that sentinment because some ignorant former congressman wants to use it as a hateful label.

If BS think he's mainstream, he's got another L coming. He's out of touch. No ifs, ands, or buts about it. BS is an extremist.

"Suddenly, it may be cool to be American again" - William J. Kole

[ Parent ]
"My opponent is far too American for Colorado."
Can you imagine such a sentiment?

It means the same thing as "too liberal."

People act as though this is a matter of politics and semantics, when it is in fact a battle for the very heart, soul, and future existence of this nation.

A recent survey found that Americans shown a copy of the Bill Of Rights on the street and told that it was a new proposal often responded that the "proposal" was "too liberal." Folks, that's a problem; a serious, country-crushing problem. Republicans have demonized the Fourth, the Fifth, the Sixth; they've taken the whole thing to court a dozen times, and tried to legislate it out of existence a hundred times. The conservative base is clamouring for central, authoritarian government.

In short, they've shown their stripes and tilted their hand. Americans now have a perfectly clear view of what "conservative" is: George W. Bush, Dick Cheney, wire tapping, Katrina, Gitmo, 9/11, Walter Reed, et al.

To not challenge this now, forcefully, while the opportunity is present, is to slaughter the Golden Goose.

The question should never be "how far right can I go, and still be elected as a democrat?" In fact, it shouldn't be a question at all, but a bold statement, with a rigid finger pointed to the northeast, at DC: "THAT is conservative. If you want THAT, vote for it. I am not THAT."

Americans are DYING (literally) for change. The cons have defined themselves as solidly illiberal, which, properly translated, means "unAmerican." For goodness sake, hand the people a dictionary and a history book, wrap it all in the flag and accept the counsel of our nation's fallen heroes from the Revolution to WWII, and RUN WITH IT!

"The noble enthusiasm of liberty is apt to give way to a spirit of narrow and illiberal distrust ..."

Federalist #1

Americans have always found it "too liberal"
30 years ago - same thing. But what is also interesting is when they are told the government can do specific actions that violate the bill of rights, they generally object to that too.

It's all in how the question is phrased.

Where you gonna go for business reporting software?

[ Parent ]
Bush/GOP won - Gore lost - Nader lost
Every party should be encouraged to run a candidate and if Dem supporters are going to get into the habit of promoting fewer candidates on the ballot I will take that as a concession to the dismantling of democracy.

If the Dem establishment wants some help in holding their ranks, please make ranked voting a clear agenda item of its state Dem majority and federally elected officeholders.  And promote the National Presidentional Vote plan.

Otherwise don't point blame at candidacies that run to win versus candidacies that run not to lose!!  example - Gore and Kerry

Gore won
Don't confuse yourself. Bush was appointed by the Supreme Court after a majority of Americans elected Gore.

Kerry ran to win, and the GOP were vote-caging to win.

"Suddenly, it may be cool to be American again" - William J. Kole

[ Parent ]
Bush is in the White House - Bush won
I agree with you wholeheartedly that the election was corrupt, manipulated and fixed.  I still believe Gore's campaign and then Kerry's campaign failed to send cannon shots at Bush to strike at all his vulnerabilities.  For some reason they waited for the American public to "figure out how bad Bush was/is" - a miserable failure of an idea considering what we know about the habits and mindset of millions of Americans.

The only way to run a campaign that earns enough votes to override the built in corruption is to come out of the nominating convention firing full guns, exposing weaknesses, attacking policies, documenting GOP failures, discrediting every Bush hack and GOP leader everyday until January 20th when you assume the pen of the President.

Any other type of campaign in this day and age will fail to the unseen neocon empire makers who will instigate war and planned terrorism to achieve their agenda.

Hit them hard and keep hitting, then you'll win some respect!

Bruce Meyer
Denver

[ Parent ]
Wow Bruce
You hit the nail on the head.  I was just wishing and waiting for Gore and Kerry both to go for the jugular, and stop just sitting there taking it.  It was so, so frustrating to watch.  So they supposedly took the high road, OK, but look what we were left with.

"Good judgement comes from experience.  Experience comes from bad judgement" - Jim Horning
[ Parent ]
Senate Race Drops to #3; Schaffer Touts Mythical Poll | 64 comments
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