September 08, 2007 01:41 AM UTC

Schaffer Poll Shows Udall in Lead

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• by: Colorado Pols

UPDATE: We’re getting some backstory on this poll. Although it hasn’t yet appeared in any media, apparently Schaffer has been circulating the poll with select donors, spun positively, particularly in DC. One possible reason it hasn’t appeared in the press yet is the Schaffer campaign is reportedly being quite secretive about the poll, refusing to disclose the detailed responses or methodology–the things smart reporters look at to discern legitimate polling from astroturf cultivation. Original post continues…

A new poll commissioned by the Bob Schaffer campaign (but not released by the campaign for self-evident reasons) shows Democrat Senate candidate Mark Udall leading the race by a small margin–though outside the margin of error–as the AIPAC Insider reports:

Colorado: Poll Shows Rocky Race Ahead
Congressman Mark Udall (D) holds a slight lead over former Congressman Bob Schaffer (R) in the campaign for the seat being vacated by outgoing GOP Senator Wayne Allard, according to a Republican poll released late this week.  Both parties are targeting Colorado’s open seat, one of only two open Senate seats in the 2008 campaign cycle.  As of June 30th, Udall had over $2.5 million remaining in his campaign coffers while Schaffer had $682,712 cash on hand.  The poll, conducted August 26-28 by Hill Research Consultants (R) on behalf of the Schaffer campaign, surveyed 600 registered Colorado voters, and had a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percent.

Colorado Senate Match-up

Mark Udall 45%
Bob Schaffer 40%

Schaffer has had a bad couple of months, and this is indicative of more bad news for his Senate campaign. In a state where Republicans still outnumber Democrats, voters – who presumably don’t know a lot about either candidate – are defaulting for Udall. At this point in the gubernatorial race (fall 2005), Republican Bob Beauprez was leading Bill Ritter, but the more voters learned about each candidate, the worse Beauprez did. Voters will move on both Schaffer and Udall, but it’s bad news for Schaffer if he’s starting behind; all things being equal, which they basically are right now, Schaffer should be at least even.