Democrat John Hickenlooper is well positioned to win the race for Governor while Republican Dan Maes hovers at the 10% threshold necessary for the Republican Party to remain a major party in Colorado. Currently, 48% of likely voters in Colorado are supporting or leaning towards supporting John Hickenlooper, while 34% are supporting or leaning towards American Constitution Party candidate Tom Tancredo. Just 10% say they will support the Republican, Dan Maes.
Hickenlooper leads among most major demographics including many demographics leaning away from Democrats this cycle, including men, West Slope voters, and voters without a bachelors degree. Tancredo's support is strongest in Metro Denver, the South Front Range and the Plains. Tancredo also leads among registered Republicans and seniors. Among those who have already cast a ballot or are certain to vote, Hickenlooper leads Tancredo and Maes, 47% to 36% to 10%. Among those who said it is either very likely or probable they will vote, Hickenlooper leads by a 30 point margin, 51% to 21% to 10%.
RBI Strategies & Research conducted a telephone survey of 501 Colorado voters who indicated it was likely that they would vote in the 2010 General Election. Interviews were conducted October 24 - October 26, 2010 by Standage Market Research of Denver, Colorado, a market research firm specializing in telephone survey interviewing. Respondents were randomly selected from a list of Colorado voters, purchased from Voter Contact Services, who voted in the 2008 General Election or registered to vote at any time following the 2008 General Election.
The margin of error for a survey of 500 interviews is +/- 4.4% at the 95% confidence level. The margin of error is higher for subsamples within the full sample. Other sources of error not accounted for by the stated statistical margin of error include, but are not limited to, question wording, question order, refusal to be interviewed, and demographic weighting.
