Notable Links



Denver Internet Marketing by Parallel Path

Arvada Boutique Clothing Store Stella B's

Rasmussen Tightens Senate Race

by: Colorado Pols

Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 15:00:48 PM MDT


Last Wednesday's Ipsos poll showing GOP Senate candidate Ken Buck up by nine points over Democrat Michael Bennet widened a lot of smiles on the right side of the aisle--Republican-friendly polling firm Rasmussen Reports sobers them up today.

The U.S. Senate race in Colorado between incumbent Democratic Senator Michael Bennet and Republican challenger Ken Buck remains very competitive.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Buck picking up 47% support, while Bennet earns the vote from 44%. Five percent (5%) prefer another candidate while four percent (4%) are undecided. Earlier this month, it was Buck 46% and Bennet 41%.

Though Buck has consistently led the incumbent since March, this is the highest level of support Bennet has received all year. [Pols emphasis] In each of six previous surveys stretching back to May, the former Denver school superintendent had earned between 39% and 42% of the vote. Bennet was named to the Senate early last year when Ken Salazar resigned to join President Obama's Cabinet. A county prosecutor, Buck has captured between 44% to 48% of the vote during that same time frame...

We've always said that polling done more than four months out of an election is relatively worthless, but now that we're nearing the 60 days until E-Day mark (Sept. 4, if you're counting), respondents are starting to voice opinions based as much on the candidates as on their Party affiliation. Case in point, check out the changing Very Favorable/Very Unfavorable numbers from a few weeks ago:

Candidate 8/12 VF/VUF 8/30 VF/VUF
Ken Buck 17%/ 20% 19%/ 26%
Michael Bennet 20%/ 29% 21%/ 30%

What the Very Favorable/Unfavorable numbers show is that Buck's overall lead is based largely on the generic Republican/anti-incumbent advantage that has shown up in polls throughout the year. But voters don't actually like Ken Buck the candidate the more they get to know him (nor do they really like Michael Bennet, either). The bottom line is that this race is going to come down to the wire.
Colorado Pols :: Rasmussen Tightens Senate Race
Tags: , , (All Tags)

Share this post:

Rasmussen Tightens Senate Race | 143 comments
Who says?
Who says voters don't actually like Ken Buck?  You?

Code Pink stands for really, really radically ignorant babes.
You tell 'em marilou
Who says Buck leads Bennet within the margin of error in the latest Rasmussen poll? You?

And who says there's an election in November? You?

The source of these claims is so confusing ...  

[ Parent ]
Marilou has a point - ColoradoPols used only the very favorable/unfavorables
The total favorable/unfavorables show the following:

Ken Buck 8-12   52/37 with 12 unsure
Ken Buck 8-30   50/44 with 6 unsure

M. Bennet 8-12  46/47 with 6 unsure
M. Bennet 8-30  47/49 with 4 unsure

The takeaways are:
Buck has lost favorables by 2%, while Bennet gained 1%, still trailing Buck.
Buck has gained unfavorables by 7%, while Bennet gained unfavorables by 2%, still leading Buck and at a point where so many people dislike him it would be hard for him to win an election -49%.
There are not many people left who don't have an opinion.

We already know Bennet bought his win - that ability to raise more money is part of why many in our party love him. -DavidThi808
Michael Bennet - ineffective, dishonest and immoral - Democrat for US Senate  

[ Parent ]
Huh?
Read slowly, marilou. Look at the Very Favorable/Very Unfavorable ratings. Voters don't really like either candidate.
[ Parent ]
But see my analysis below.
Perhaps the reason voters don't like either candidate is because of the nasty smear campaign Bennet is running. When the candidates talk about the issues in the debate you will see Buck's favorables sky rocket.

"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle
[ Parent ]
If Buch doesn't like seeing himself say shit on TV
Then he shouldn't say it.


Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno
[ Parent ]
*Out of context*
Kind of like your sig line.

"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle
[ Parent ]
She said it
All.


Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno
[ Parent ]
Here's the whole comment
What part is out of context?

Best to kill them early
instead of letting them possibly need food stamps.

Out buying dog food?  Are you kidding me?



Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno
[ Parent ]
it isn't
it's the general

judge elected officials by their actions, not by their rhetoric
[ Parent ]
Ralphie - The TV campaign is great. Keep it up.
All the Dems like it.
All the Independents don't.
You didn't need them anyway, right?
Buck Aug 11 Independents +5
Buck Aug 29 Independants =11
Working like a charm.

We already know Bennet bought his win - that ability to raise more money is part of why many in our party love him. -DavidThi808
Michael Bennet - ineffective, dishonest and immoral - Democrat for US Senate  
[ Parent ]
And yet your candidate's margin is shrinking
How do you think Buck's shrinkage makes him feel? Does it make him feel like less of a man?

"Have a Bobby bar! My dad made them." --Jon Huntsman Jr.
[ Parent ]
Seems to be working to me, H-man
Your candidate has dropped six points since it has been running.

You can spin that any way you want.  Be aware that I have a hair-trigger bullshit alarm.

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno

[ Parent ]
Ralphie - He went from 46% to 47 or 49%, depending on whether you count leaners
To be meaningful you need to compare polls using the same methodology.

We already know Bennet bought his win - that ability to raise more money is part of why many in our party love him. -DavidThi808
Michael Bennet - ineffective, dishonest and immoral - Democrat for US Senate  
[ Parent ]
Not me. You
I'm not the one bragging about polls every other post.

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno
[ Parent ]
and you ignore Dem polls
I like our chances. The more Buck opes his mouth the better

judge elected officials by their actions, not by their rhetoric
[ Parent ]
Isn't that cute?
The Beej thinks he did an analysis.  I didn't even know he had gotten as far as sitting and heeling.
[ Parent ]
One of the best, BC!
But do you think he's even paper trained yet?

"These are the values inspiring those brave workers in Poland ... They remind us that where free unions and collective bargaining are forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Now there's an image I could do without! n/t

[ Parent ]
You generalize
from an VUF number of 26%, you simply cannot conclude that "voters don't actually like Ken Buck the candidate..."  Are you blond?

Code Pink stands for really, really radically ignorant babes.
[ Parent ]
Hello Mary Lou...


"There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney in a moment of clarity

"I'm Mitt Romney and yes, Wolf, that's also my first name," Willard Mitt Romney demonstrating 'policy flexibility.'  

[ Parent ]
Grasping at straws
If you include the leaners, Buck is up 49 to 45. We've got 1% to go, and we can swing that any day. As for the favorability ratings, let's break them down. After being slammed in Bennet ads (paid for by the money big bankers gave him) with his statements misrepresented and taken out of context, Buck increased his favorability by 2%, and of course unfavorables increased by 6%. Part of these numbers are just people getting to know the candidate, the other part has been driven by Bennet's smear campaign. Bennet, on the other hand, increased only 1% in favorability with no negative ads run against him, and his unfavorables increased 1% as well. Just wait till the debates, it will be all over for Bennet at that time.

"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle
...actually, with 5% preferring a third party candidate,
Buck has it in the bag right now.

"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle
[ Parent ]
Someone Else Factor
The Someone Else Factor, gotta love that one.

What I enjoy seeing is the rise of the VUF (very Unfavorable factor), the "ICK" feeling.

See, because the two parties are so out of control, you will and have seen this factor increase. So, instead of saying woooah these two (Unacceptable candidates for their respective parties) are doing better, you soon realize they actually becoming more "ICKY" to their staunch party members.

I believe if you look at 2008, we have gone beyond the "I will vote" for the "ICKY" guy because he's the only one from my party on the Ballot. We are sure, the Vote will not go to the other "ICKY" guy in the other party. So what, have you?

Well, this time around you will have 7 people on the ballot.

Not to say things will fragment much, judging by the Green, Libertarian and ?  getting there respective votes.

I have a vested interest I am on the ballot.
"UNAFFILIATED."

I like the Icky Buck n' Bennet numbers as they will soon approach greater than 50% Ickyness, and then maybe the "puke" factor will come in, where the voters just want to spit them out.

I just want them to vote and have a choice, one to "Stop the Insanity."

Who knows how "ICKY" it will get, but so far these numbers are jumping up rather high, from before and after the primaries.


Charley Miller

Unaffiliated

charleymiller2010

[ Parent ]
If Buck has 49%, and you pull at least 2%,
then Buck has it won. So either Buck is winning, or you are a terrible candidate.

"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle
[ Parent ]
you missing the math.....
Crunch the numbers.....lets use the primaries? fair enough?

Soooooo...how many votes did the Buck n' Bennet show get? What were their ratings? Then?

You are assuming that 75 percent of their parties will come to their aid and vote for them, vote for the Buck n' Bennet?

Hmmm.... maybe, problem is getting that many people to drink something they find "vile, discusting and frankly ICKY." Hence, the growing numbers of Very Unfavorable.

Now, consider the 1.2 million voters who are "Unaffiliated."

Guess, you feel they say 40 percent or 80 percent of all of they will vote for these two ?  Nope, afraid not, they didn't at the primaries, maybe 20 percent will of the 40 percent I feel will vote, but that splits so these guys only get 160k votes each for the Buck n' Bennet if that, and I am being nice.

So, lets be fair, lets say no one will, not one, will stray and jump ship, so at best you have 430k to 480k for each of the Buck n' Bennet.

Now we have a serious problem? Where are all the rest of the votes going, I predict you will have an extra 1 mil floating and we will have a huge historic mid-term as preliminary suggests.

I guess no one will go, or maybe repeat 2008 and just not vote for the Senator, hmmm....

"Charley Miller Unaffiliated" hmmm nah

Will they simply say, I will throw my Unaffiliated vote for the guys I am learning to, well frankly, not want to stomach anymore, the Buck n' Bennet, yeah that will work.

See, that  5 percentage is those who are going to jump the Buck n' Bennet ship, and they already know it, and the undecided you better not depend on that 12 plus percent, its growing, are the others who will shift from the Buck n' Bennet.

Let me make this simple, take VUF and now call that group who really really dislike the Buck n' Bennet, now undecided also.

See, fact of the matter, in the State of Colorado, the simple majority of voters, active and inactive, this cycle is "Unaffiliated" voters, and my personal, (18,766) toe-to-toe, face-to-face, eye-to-eye is telling me they are going to vote and I am sorry if I have to bring you some bad news, it won't be for Buck n' Bennet.



Charley Miller

Unaffiliated

charleymiller2010

[ Parent ]
Is that you with the 5%?


We already know Bennet bought his win - that ability to raise more money is part of why many in our party love him. -DavidThi808
Michael Bennet - ineffective, dishonest and immoral - Democrat for US Senate  
[ Parent ]
Oh Charley,
Now that I have a master's degree, I guess I get to be an elitist. Leave math to the mathematicians and politics to the politicians - neither is your strong suit.

"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle
[ Parent ]
A Republican being an elitist?
Bestill my heart, I'm all aflutter.

"Have a Bobby bar! My dad made them." --Jon Huntsman Jr.
[ Parent ]
Just kidding about the politicans.
Hey if you want me to tell you what to do, I will. I wonder how you would feel if the country were ruled by conservative elitists?

"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle
[ Parent ]
Beej as mathemetician!
LOL.

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno
[ Parent ]
Yes, that is my career, and I have the master's degree to prove it.
What's so funny?

"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle
[ Parent ]
LOL
The little guy figures himself a 'mathematician'  

"There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney in a moment of clarity

"I'm Mitt Romney and yes, Wolf, that's also my first name," Willard Mitt Romney demonstrating 'policy flexibility.'  

[ Parent ]
You Must have Been Educated
In Bush's fuzzy math.  And we all know how that worked out.  Your analysis is the same old tired stuff that Walk Klein used to make up.  Didn't work in 1980 and won't work today.  It's just nonsense.
[ Parent ]
Klein, as I recall, just won a race.


"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle
[ Parent ]
Fuzzy Statistics?
Well, we all know what happens when we vote REP or DEM. I guess, I am reflecting what all the polls are saying across the US. Its not about the REP or the DEM its about "firing" those in office. Within the party those poll numbers look pretty bad.

So, maybe, Colorado, is different. I don't see it. I never would have ran if I didn't see that even here the people are fed up. Let's call it the "fifth estate" for lack of a better word. So, if I go out on the streets of Denver, Longmont, Limon, Sterling, Colorado Springs, Grand junction, Aspen, Ft. Collins or Boulder and 99 percent of 1,000 people (Statistical pool) are saying the same thing, I don't even get a bell-curve.

To be honest, the outliers are the one or two who say, I support the Buck n' Bennet.

Anyway, guess I'm not a rocket scientist, not a politician, never ran before. Heck, I take the time to write here.

Give me the "Politics 101" after November, since all those at the John Deere Tractor Booths at the County fairs were mentioning something about first you are a dog catcher, then a precinct captain, maybe if we all like you a delegate...then an assembly or two, already clued me on that.

"Stop the Insanity."

Maybe, if I say, this is all out of control,maybe you will see that doing this over and over isn't working too well. You might want to ask your ten year old son or daughter or the kids down the block, what they think? Funny, how they all say that DEM and REP is not working.

Charley Miller

Unaffiliated

charleymiller2010

[ Parent ]
We have the process for a reason.
It's to prevent crazy people from getting elected. (Or at least, if you're crazy you still have to represent a large faction of people.) You can't just say, "hey I want to be Senator" and have it magically happen. You have to earn people's support. "We the people" get to choose who represents us, and unless the Rep and Dem choices are just really really terrible, people usually know that a large body of people trust said person. A campaign is about more than just the candidate, it's about a large group of people supporting the candidate too, which usually come from a party infrastructure. I'm not saying a third party candidate can't be successful, but they need a base of support first.

"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle
[ Parent ]
Agree....
I agree on what your saying, its why I have to do the huge toe-to-toe, face-to-face, eye-to-eye on the issues that are keeping those who I am talking with up at night. For me, when they say, "I am going to vote for you," it means something.

But I disagree, I firmly believe we are at a political crossroads. Its what I am fighting for. But most of all, when people ask me, "What are you going to do for me." I can only say, "Fight for you."

Maybe REP Buck will support this.

http://www.roadmap.republicans...

For me this is Insanity. But then the DEM already cut into Social Security, and put forward a health-care plan that is essentially destroying small businesses in American by the millions.

Charley Miller

Unaffiliated

charleymiller2010

[ Parent ]
Yes.
I think you're very close to Buck on the issues, so I don't know what your problem with the Republican candidate is right now.

"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle
[ Parent ]
Hahahahahaha
That number is just another dream of the Rasmussen people.  Now that they are nearing the election, they're going to have to have a more reasonable sample.  I know that won't meet their political goals of driving the narrative, but in order to remain any kind of a pollster that is quoted at all, they are going to have to get closer to the truth.  BJ, for a dose of reality, I suggest that you go to TPM poll tracker.  They let you isolate the effect in every race in the country from the in-house effect of Rasumssen by getting numbers that exclude Rasmussen's polling.  When you do it, every race in the country (with the exception of Harry Reid) is more Democratic.  Frankly, that can't be an accident.  My guess is that you'll see a whole lot of tightening in the Rasumssen polls towards the end which will give them an out when they end up being just wrong, wrong, wrong.  
[ Parent ]
Except that Of Course
There is no one else.  No one will get anywhere near 5%.  And frankly, with just a libertarian on the ballot, those votes will all come from Buck.  Sorry guy, but I'll wait to crow until after the election.  Can Buck win, sure.  But this is a tied race, not a run-away for Buck.  Nobody's laid a glove on that guy yet, and trust me they will.
[ Parent ]
Oh trust me.
Norton and Bennet have gone after Buck hard, and nothing has stuck. I know it's hard for you guys to believe, but Buck is actually a good guy.

"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle
[ Parent ]
Upon what do you base that?

And why do you think 50%+1 other voters will see it that way too?
[ Parent ]
From getting to know him and his family.
You might also start by asking David about him. I think 50+% of the voters will see it that way too when they get to hear him at the debates so he can cut through all the crap the Dems are throwing at him now.

"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle
[ Parent ]
Right
Because everybody watches debates.
[ Parent ]
It filters down.


"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle
[ Parent ]
You don't want to see me in a debate.
Buck n' Bennet,
They kinda will do ok with those really important questions we have seen so far.....

1. Whose your favorite Senator?

 Yeah, that ones gonna "Stop the Insanity."

2. Where's all that outside money coming from, 527 blah blah blah?

  Yeah, that one's gonna "Fix the Economic mess."

3. Now, you said you wouldn't be doing any negative campaigning, as in TV ads, ROBO-Calls, Radio? Wassup with that?

  Yeah, that one, "Ends the Free Rides."

So, what are they going to do for me, you? seriously? Nothing. Period. And that's the problem, no matter what they say, thats what everyone in Colorado thinks.

You think that rocking horse Buck is out on will stay off from rocking off the right side of reality? Once, he has to face an open forum? When he has to answer some real questions? Oh, yeah, like what percentage of the GNP (GDP) will you set that Balance Budget amendment at, ROFL.

Or what about that "lame duck" Senator Bennet? You think that "rubber stamping" the party line will keep him in popularity, I hear him screaming "no! no! don't come to stomp with me in Colorado...No!" Let, alone, asking what percentage of the GNP (GDP) will you set that Balance Budget amendment at, ROFL.

See, the more they come out the more people are going to see that once again, doing the same thing over and over expecting different results is Insanity.



Charley Miller

Unaffiliated

charleymiller2010

[ Parent ]
Who are you talking to?

[ Parent ]
Charley Miller
Is talking to Charley Miller, of course.
[ Parent ]
No,
He's talking to his committed choir. And that's their problem.  They're all talking to their committed choir and they need to be talking to someone else, but that would be dangerous because they would then have to change their positions for it to do any good.
[ Parent ]
...the one thing both left and right can agree on. n/t


"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle
[ Parent ]
Number 5 Novemeber Ballot after Green and Libertarian
2010 General Election Lot Drawing
Unaffiliated and Nonpartisan Candidates
Rank Candidates
US SENATE
5 Charley Miller
6 J. Moromisato
7 Jason Napolitano

http://www.sos.state.co.us/pub...

Charley Miller

Unaffiliated

charleymiller2010

[ Parent ]
pixies, maybe, not fairies.
I always forget- which are the ones with magic dust?

You can slice and dice the numbers any which way. Buck's VUF is up 6. If he can do that again in the next few weeks, he's toast.

[ Parent ]
You have it in the bag!
Your work is done.  Now, go back to going door to door selling Bibles and denouncing evolution.  You have a lock on this race!  A three percent lead in a poll notoriously favorable to Republicans is money in the bank.

[ Parent ]
A blank quote.
Quite a fitting metaphor for Bennet's candidacy.

"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle
[ Parent ]
No, that was the scientific evidence for creationism.
All of it.
[ Parent ]
I thought it looked familiar

[ Parent ]
Very familiar to you no doubt.
Resembles your mind quite closely.

"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle
[ Parent ]
Too bad the election's not today
Your boy was up by DOUBLE DIGITS last week, now he's up by only 4 even in a Rasmussen poll (which has consistently overstated Republican votes this year). What'll happen next week? Will even Republican polling outfits have Buck losing?

It's a sad sad trajectory, one I wouldn't want to be on a couple months before the election.  

"Have a Bobby bar! My dad made them." --Jon Huntsman Jr.

[ Parent ]
Oh please.
There is no "trajectory" between different polls. They use different sampling methodology, and if anything are likely to underestimate the conservative/Tea Party vote this year.

"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle
[ Parent ]
Rasmussen is so mean to teabaggers
They should call them RasBashBuckMussen. Get it?

"Have a Bobby bar! My dad made them." --Jon Huntsman Jr.
[ Parent ]
How do you know what methodology Ras uses?

[ Parent ]
They usually say it at the bottom of their polls.


"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle
[ Parent ]
Ohh, so what was the R, D, U split for this one?
How about Denver Metro/rest od state split?

Male - female?
Age breakdown?

[ Parent ]
You want that info, you have to pay them money


We already know Bennet bought his win - that ability to raise more money is part of why many in our party love him. -DavidThi808
Michael Bennet - ineffective, dishonest and immoral - Democrat for US Senate  
[ Parent ]
rasmussen is screwed right
and everyone knows it

judge elected officials by their actions, not by their rhetoric
[ Parent ]
$25


Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno
Ha ha awesome!
Who's quoting Rasmussen now? It appears that maybe Rasmussen isn't so biased.

"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle
[ Parent ]
For a math major, you're not very smart
The problem with Rassy is their likely voter model. It makes it hard to treat their results as absolute. However, they do have value on a relative basis - from one poll to the next. Thus, we might not believe Rassy's prediction that Buck or Bennet will get x% of the vote, but we will believe that Buck's very unfavorables increased from one poll to the next.

The bias is still there, but we assume it's equal in both polls. Evaluating polls is one of the skills you develop when you deal with real data, not abstract proofs.  

Its just like Further, but with tax cuts! - Fidel's Dirt Nap

[ Parent ]
Not to Mention
That Rasmussen also shows a gap that is closing.  Perhaps if you took out the Rasumssen house effect as documented by others, you would note that it's not that Bennet is closing the gap, but that he is expanding his lead.
[ Parent ]
Yeah I know.
They poll likely voters instead of the general public. So inaccurate. /snark

"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle
[ Parent ]
You really don't get it, do you?
Apparently you don't need to take statistics to get a math degree. Who knew?

Its just like Further, but with tax cuts! - Fidel's Dirt Nap
[ Parent ]
Let me break it down for you.
"Likely voters" are people who are more likely to actually vote, meaning that if you want to try to guess the outcome of an election, they are the people you want to talk to. It doesn't matter how many "registered voters" or "general public" you poll if they don't vote.

"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle
[ Parent ]
let's break it down for you
RASMUSSEN STATISTICALL SKEWS RIGHT

judge elected officials by their actions, not by their rhetoric
[ Parent ]
Rasmussen is the most accurate poll out there,
although PPP has been getting better lately. Repeating left wing talking points doesn't change facts.

"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle
[ Parent ]
You're confusing precision and accuracy
Rasmussen is consistently wrong, in a very predictable way.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com...

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno

[ Parent ]
No, I'm not.
I meant what I said.

"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle
[ Parent ]
That's the saddest part of your response
I meant what I said.


Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno
[ Parent ]
Try again, beej
Most polls adjust their initial results for likely voters. You appear to think that only Rassy does that. What you fail to see is that Rassy polls introduce a well-documented bias to their results when they apply their likely voter model.

Why does real data flummox you so easily?

Its just like Further, but with tax cuts! - Fidel's Dirt Nap

[ Parent ]
sooo.....
How come both VUF are increasing going back as far as you can see, both of these guys, Buck n' Bennet are starting to "stink" a little.

Now, you can say its the negative campaigning, I think it was that last DP spill regarding a balance budget amendment, I tried that on a few thousand people and it was very effective in getting them to frown and say, "I will vote for you."

SO, maybe the Buck n' Bennet best throw out some more party dribble, like Burn-nackie or Git-ner (Sorry I never can spell the Fed Chair or Treas. name) saying we are in an economic recovery with housing starts increasing and even that a shortage appears somewhere....

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/m...

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/m...

Jeez...you don't want to see whats going on in Detroit.

Seriously, the point is the negative end of things is increasing on both of these candidates. So, I hope the best for these guys, but honestly, I don't see them being able to recover.

Oh, I finally met person number two who stated, "I am working on the Bennet campaign," I have met more than a few handfuls, that say they will vote for "Buck." I saw more serious supporter for Jane and Andy. Hey, I tried from Boulder to downtown Denver, but just mentioning these two draws laughs, frowns and even some hateful sneers. maybe, we need more Rocky Mountain scenes with nice music, hey have those kids running through the fields of spring flowers with the "Sound of Music" playing, that may work. Or maybe, roll up them sleeves more and shoot a gun, maybe pull some chain on an oil rig, you know get down and dirty. Yeah, that may work.
Dunno whats that about.

Shoutout September, will be a month to remember.

Charley Miller

Unaffiliated

charleymiller2010

[ Parent ]
I'm working for Bennet. No pay
just a volunteer. But, I have maxed my contribution
[ Parent ]
"honestly, I don't see them being able to recover"
LOL. Hey Charley, are you up to 2% yet?

"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle
[ Parent ]
ColoPols is misreading things, so let me help you
The proper basis of comparison is two polls using the same methodology.  I recall posting when the 9% poll came out that the real margin was 5%.  That is the margin that the New York Times projects Buck will win by in November.  They were 35 of 35 last cycle.

There was a rasmussen poll out conducted on August 11th. It had Buck up by 5, 46-41 as I recall. This poll as to the hard numbers has Buck ahead 47-44. Including the leaning numbers Buck is ahead 49-45.

The earlier rasmussen poll had Buck leading independents by +5.  After the Bennet/DSCC Buck is too extreme candidate campaign has been playing for a while, guess how that is going over with independents?  Buck is up with Independents by 11, 47-36.

It is impossible for Bennet to win without winning the Independents.  More Republicans will vote than Democrats in the Colorado Senate race this year.  Bennet and the DSCC have succeeded in running Independents off and there is only a small percentage of people who are undecideds.  

Nice job, brownie.

We already know Bennet bought his win - that ability to raise more money is part of why many in our party love him. -DavidThi808
Michael Bennet - ineffective, dishonest and immoral - Democrat for US Senate  

When did the New York Times project election results?
You're not making that up, are you?

"Have a Bobby bar! My dad made them." --Jon Huntsman Jr.
[ Parent ]
He's talking about Nate Silver
who is now blogging 538 at the New York Times. The Times didn't "project" anything last cycle, and the Times isn't projecting anything now.

Not sure who "brownie" is.

[ Parent ]
I figured he was referring to Nate Silver
As I recall, two months before the 2008 election, Nate Silver as well as most other pollsters and aggregators had McCain winning. Silver's projections kept changing until the day of the election.

"Have a Bobby bar! My dad made them." --Jon Huntsman Jr.
[ Parent ]
Exactly
Polls are snapshots. But Buck's lead, which was based on a generic R/D matchup until recently, keeps shrinking. Another couple weeks and it will be gone.
[ Parent ]
That's because
Polls keep changing until the date of the election.  When Nate next updates his findings with all the polls showing a tightening race or a lead for Bennet, you'll see Buck's numbers go down and Nate's prediction become a close race.  In addition, if you look at the polls showing Buck in the lead, the only one to consistently do that is Rasmussen.  The other pollsters all show a close race of a Bennet lead.  What I mean to say by that is that Rasumssen is doing its polls (if it even does them)so as to game the Nate Silver system and drive the coverage of this election as a Republican blow-out.  By Nates calculations 60% of the polls in this election have been done by Rasmussen and other Republican polling outfits.  That means that Nate's model will be over-run with these polls and skewed by them.  He know this and as he has said, as it gets closer to the election, these Rasmussen polls and the Republican polls will be less and less important.  My guess, gee, what a surprise, you will see Nate Silver predictions get rosier.  Nate didn't predict 35 out of 35 two months before the election.  He did that the day before the election.

And, as I said above, to keep any credibility, Rasumssen is going have to stop trying to drive the narrative (which they have done successfully) and get more real.  Otherwise, no one will give him the time of day in two years.  My guess, he's been paid to do all this stuff by the Koch Cabal as a way of driving narrative.  Maybe he's just happy taking Kock money and being a prostitute and not worrying about his own credibility.

[ Parent ]
Craig
Silver has all the independent released polls in his calculation except for the one that came out today.  It won't change much.

We already know Bennet bought his win - that ability to raise more money is part of why many in our party love him. -DavidThi808
Michael Bennet - ineffective, dishonest and immoral - Democrat for US Senate  
[ Parent ]
Craig
btw there has been 1 poll released in the last 3 months showing Bennet ahead.  It was a done a couple days before the primary by PPP the daily Kos pollster.  They also polled the republican primary and had Norton up by 2 over Buck.  He won by over 3 so they did not exactly call that one right.

We already know Bennet bought his win - that ability to raise more money is part of why many in our party love him. -DavidThi808
Michael Bennet - ineffective, dishonest and immoral - Democrat for US Senate  
[ Parent ]
Michael Brown?
"Heck of a job, Brownie."

"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle
[ Parent ]
Sxp - I might get a few digs in, but I don't make stuff up.


We already know Bennet bought his win - that ability to raise more money is part of why many in our party love him. -DavidThi808
Michael Bennet - ineffective, dishonest and immoral - Democrat for US Senate  
[ Parent ]
So what do you mean by "35 of 35 last cycle"? n/t


"Have a Bobby bar! My dad made them." --Jon Huntsman Jr.
[ Parent ]
SXP - Here is what that conservative mean NY Times says
Detailed Forecasts
The forecasts are built from statistical models, mostly based on recent polls and demographic data.
Stage of forecast      Bennet Buck    Lead
Weighted polling avg.  42.4  45.7     +3.2
Adjusted polling avg.  40.9  45.6     +4.8
538 regression         42.0  45.0     +3.1
538 snapshot           41.1  45.5     +4.4
Nov. 2 projection      46.0  51.2     +5.2
± 7.4 pct. pt.      
% candidate wins race  22.8% 77.2%  

We already know Bennet bought his win - that ability to raise more money is part of why many in our party love him. -DavidThi808
Michael Bennet - ineffective, dishonest and immoral - Democrat for US Senate  
[ Parent ]
What?
Ras  earlier in Aug - Buck + 5%, and +5% unaffiliated

Ras now - Buck +3%, +4 if you count leaning, and +11 unaffiliated.

So Buck lost ground overall even though he made made it to double digits in U's?   WTF

And you still think Ras mystery methodology makes any sense?

[ Parent ]
Projections
They were 35 of 35 last cycle.

Does this claim refer to final polls before the election, or polls 60 days out (which, of course, is where we are now)? Because, ah, that would make a difference.
[ Parent ]
This Refers
To Nate Silver at 538.com which did correctly predict all winners in 2008.  His blog is now posted with the NYT.  So, the NYT didn't do it, Nate Silver did.  And remember, all Nate does is analyze other's polling data.  He does none of his own.
[ Parent ]
That wasn't my question.
I am quite familiar with 538.com and everything you said here. What I assumed--but didn't know for sure so was asking--is that the 35 of 35 was on the final prediction before the election--not 35 of 35 on projections 60 days out. That was my point, and my question.

My obvious point is that +5 here 60 days out does not mean a lock. It doesn't even mean that 538.com will have it at +5 in the final poll.

[ Parent ]
He makes stuff up
Like Buck , Cheney and Rove.

He's probably still looking for weapons of mass destruction under Bush's desk

judge elected officials by their actions, not by their rhetoric

[ Parent ]
Note to you Libs
You're done.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/142...

Code Pink stands for really, really radically ignorant babes.

The short version
Bennet has made Buck less popular among Democrats and more popular among independents in the last three weeks.  

The Dems were not going to vote for Buck anyway, most will not vote at all.  

The Independents were Bennet's only hope and he drove them to Buck.

That is what the polls tell me.

We already know Bennet bought his win - that ability to raise more money is part of why many in our party love him. -DavidThi808
Michael Bennet - ineffective, dishonest and immoral - Democrat for US Senate  

[ Parent ]
The shorter version
H-man isn't sounding as confident that Buck's 527's are going to be enough to compete with Bennet's funding advantage and aggressive campaigning.

Isn't is ironic that during the primary when Bennet showed a lot of restraint regarding Romanoff everyone was saying what a milquetoast pussy the guy was and now that he comes out swinging using his funds and just hammners Buck on his bullshit, H-man gets "shits in his pants" scared and starts to whine that the negative campaigning isn't cool and is driving away independents.  Yeah as if H-man really cares about Bennet's campaign and whether it loses independents.

There is one other aspect to consider here and that is Bennet's GOTV ground game.  Romanoff was supposedly ahead in a Denver Post poll a week before the primary and Bennet won by eight.  Bennet has a great GOTV organization in place thanks to the primary and can close a two-four percentage gap with an Obama surge.  H-man is going to be "shitting scared" if Buck isn't over five percent heading into the home stretch.  Maybe this is going to be door to door fighting for every vote and Bennet is in it to win it.  Bennet could fool the H-mans of the world with his campaigning savvy and aggressiveness and he certainly has the money and the moxie to make to the end.

[ Parent ]
GG - Bennet's agressive campaigning? The guy is invisable.
An Obama surge?  Wake up the primary is over. Non-Dems who get a robo call from Barry would vote for Buck.  Maybe you have not looked at the numbers but his approval rating is about 40%, most of them are Dems.  But that's OK 49% of Colorado doesn't like Bennet either.
I expect Buck to be ahead by 5% going into the home stretch and at the finish line.  So does that conservative rag, the NY Times.  It must suck to see a wave coming and not have any way to get out of the way.

We already know Bennet bought his win - that ability to raise more money is part of why many in our party love him. -DavidThi808
Michael Bennet - ineffective, dishonest and immoral - Democrat for US Senate  
[ Parent ]
I notice you don't talk about the moderate vote
or the Hispanic vote or the womens vote.  I guess those are demographics that don't mean anything to you.

It will probably be another "shits in the pants" moment for you to see President Obama speak about the ending of the Iraq invasion tonight and the renewed negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians.  After all that careful work to deride, insult and obstruct our president it is going to be a moment of total dismay to see him keep his election promise and make good on a responsible exit.  At this point any good that happens to our country is probably going to be a real downer for you H-man because it will show those who supported President Obama that he is a good man who has had to deal with the worst of problems and has done so without an iota of help Republicans and is moving the country forward and away from the abyss.  Good policy makes good politics and Obama is concerned about good policy.  We want senators who will work with him to heal our country and your extremist isn't going to help.  He'll vote party line 100% of the time because Republicans will want to defeat Obama in 2012.  Sorry but the wrong candidate for the wrong time.

[ Parent ]
GG - you are right. When you are right, you are right.
Nobody at Pols was able to give me a good reason to vote for the appointed one.  Then is occurred to me.  Mikey provided it himself.

1. Stimulus spending was immoral .(according to Bennet)

2. Mikey voted for stimulus spending.

Therefore, vote for Mikey because he will continue to be immoral.

We already know Bennet bought his win - that ability to raise more money is part of why many in our party love him. -DavidThi808
Michael Bennet - ineffective, dishonest and immoral - Democrat for US Senate  

[ Parent ]
I'll take Bennet and the points. $100?

[ Parent ]
silly
please try to be a little more professional

judge elected officials by their actions, not by their rhetoric
[ Parent ]
Your candidate went from a DOUBLE DIGIT LEAD
to a 4 point lead.

If the election were tomorrow, your boy Buck might have a shot. Too bad voters are going to keep finding out about Buck's actual positions.

Try throwing a rock into the lake and watching it sink. That'll be a good analogy.

"Have a Bobby bar! My dad made them." --Jon Huntsman Jr.

[ Parent ]
spx
Actually, it is more like it went from + 5 to +3 or 4.  But we are getting so closed to the first digit being a 5 that it is somewhat less important.

We already know Bennet bought his win - that ability to raise more money is part of why many in our party love him. -DavidThi808
Michael Bennet - ineffective, dishonest and immoral - Democrat for US Senate  
[ Parent ]
Informed voters
Don't forget that as Boy Bennet grabs bits and pieces of Ken Buck's words and assembles them so as to be a big lie, voters are remembering more and more.

1) Boy Bennet hates old people.  He denied them COLAs but did he refuse his own COLA?
2) Boy Bennet says one thing in Colorado and then votes directly opposite to what he says.
3) Boy Bennet tries to make us think he's the taxpayer's friend, but hasn't seen a spending bill (except for old people) that he doesn't like.
4) Boy Bennet gets his marching orders from Schumer.
5) Boy Bennet voted for Obamacare.  That should be enough to send him back to Anschutz.
5) Next ...?

Oh, and don't forget that if Boy Bennet lies to the voters, he will continue to lie to his constituents.

All that, plus, he needs some lips.

Code Pink stands for really, really radically ignorant babes.

[ Parent ]
TOUCHE' Ouch!
That hurt, all the Seniors I know and have met agree. But Buck isn't any better, unless he's doing the chameleon thing again...changing colors

So Marilou, why has the DEM abandoned what they once held as the 'sacred cow", never to be slaughtered? Why did this change with President Obama...

Lets hope these two can survive their own self-destruction.  

Charley Miller

Unaffiliated

charleymiller2010

[ Parent ]
I think you meant "D" not T.

[ Parent ]
Oh thats funny
my PUNishment for the day. I think it was Mooo Shoooe Gai Pan, since I talked about pork in a different post..... "Won Dum Foo"

Charley Miller

Unaffiliated

charleymiller2010
[ Parent ]
Holy shite.
There was no COLA because the COLA formula if followed would have resulted in a decrease in payments.

Instead, Bennet vote FOR a one time payment to SS recipients.  I would have thought the Right would have been opposed.  Oh, wait - they were.

Repeal the death panels!
When do we want 16,500 armed new IRS agents? Never! Repeal that too.

[ Parent ]
COLA formula
"holy Cow Batman"

look, lets bring it down to 20th century levels that way its not a reduction its an adjustment or a deflation maybe.    Hey, lets ask those who know.....

Ben S. Bernanke, (had to look it up) Fed Chairman... most notable authority to trust with your Federal funds....

Secretary Geithne (had to look that up also)
Your guy suck in the pockets of the Treasury.

Oh I stand corrected, guess you can try that one on cane toting Grandma or grandpa, or lest we not forget...

Preston Brooks, maybe you don't want me fighting for you on the Senate floor in the middle of the aisle?


Charley Miller

Unaffiliated

charleymiller2010

[ Parent ]
Boy Bennet?
He has been disciplined for ethics violations.

His slogan should be vote for me and I'll illegally seize your tax records, and then waste 150k of Weld County.


judge elected officials by their actions, not by their rhetoric

[ Parent ]
Should clarify that
Buck has been disciplined.Here's a better slogan:
Vote for me because I don't go to work, and break the law of the land.

judge elected officials by their actions, not by their rhetoric
[ Parent ]
I think he is still under investigation over the DPS retirement financing matter, isn't he?


We already know Bennet bought his win - that ability to raise more money is part of why many in our party love him. -DavidThi808
Michael Bennet - ineffective, dishonest and immoral - Democrat for US Senate  
[ Parent ]
Boy Bennet
likes to pass the financial favors around among his Democrat investment bankers.  This particular one was a very big favor. Was fellow liberal Chris Romer involved in that one?

Code Pink stands for really, really radically ignorant babes.
[ Parent ]
BS
This kind of one day jump means nothing.  Libs aren't dead even if they lose the next election.  There is no permanent conservative majority as you would like to think.  As for the generic ballot it means nothing on a congressional district basis.  So what if 98% of Texans want more Republicans.  It doesn't matter as Texas has a limited number of districts it can effect.  So the 98% of let's give your southerners only control 20% of the congressional districts but the nationwide number is greatly affected because that area of the country is so out of touch with the rest of the country.  But, I know.  You believe your own bullshit about being with the country on the issues.  Well you aren't.  It's only the south that skews the numbers because it is so out of touch with the rest of the country.  Has been for 200 years, so what's news?  You can continue to try to drive the narrative.  The question is what happens if it doesn't work out that way in November.  Oh, I forgot, the Democrats stole the elections because the polls were all wrong.
[ Parent ]
BS
is uncomfortable, eh?

Code Pink stands for really, really radically ignorant babes.
[ Parent ]
One day jumps in a weekly poll?


We already know Bennet bought his win - that ability to raise more money is part of why many in our party love him. -DavidThi808
Michael Bennet - ineffective, dishonest and immoral - Democrat for US Senate  
[ Parent ]
Dems only won the down ballot races last time
because of Obama. This is a center-right country; we just need to be reminded how bad liberal policies are every 30 years or so. See Carter, Jimmy.

"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle
[ Parent ]
You're not even 30
What do you imagine you know about what happens in 30 years?

"Have a Bobby bar! My dad made them." --Jon Huntsman Jr.
[ Parent ]
I'm a student of history.


"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle
[ Parent ]
Students read. What have you read about President Carter?
Reagan?  Did you know that President Reagan was responsible for the biggest tax increase the country had ever seen to date? That he admitted his administration broke the law in the Iran Contra criminal conspiracy?

How about the natioanal debt?
Do you have any idea when and why it started up?

Wait- didn't mean to give you the pop quiz.

What have you read?

[ Parent ]
Reagan did it right.
He decreased taxes to get the economy going, and then raised them a bit when the economy was good and people could afford it. The national debt (and deficit) was nowhere near current levels under Reagan and even Clinton (who was able to balance the budget because of Reagan's reforms and a Republican congress). The deficit increased significantly with the wars, but there was bipartisan agreement after 9/11 that being blown up was worse than being in debt. And then came the bailouts, followed by Obama blasting the debt through the roof with the quixotically named "stimulus".

"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle
[ Parent ]
The question is "What have you read, student of History?"

But you're still wrong.

the only useful measure of debt is as a percentage of income.  In national accounting that usually means as a percentage of GDP.

http://www.usgovernmentspendin...

Reagan was not a debt buster
http://www.usgovernmentspendin...

He did however realize that raising taxes was necessary.

And he did admit that his administration broke the law by  Iran - Contra .
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

But what have you read?

[ Parent ]
crickets
What have you read?
[ Parent ]
@sxp LOL
The little fella reckons himself a 'student of history.'  snort

"There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney in a moment of clarity

"I'm Mitt Romney and yes, Wolf, that's also my first name," Willard Mitt Romney demonstrating 'policy flexibility.'  

[ Parent ]
I have the degree to prove it.
What do you have?

"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle
[ Parent ]
A degree in History?
Because a degree in letters isn't the same thing.

"Thank you for putting your rank political motives on display." - ArapaGOP
[ Parent ]
Oh and by the way, you know else is a student of history.
Yeah. Newt Gingrich. A professor, actually.

"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle
[ Parent ]
Note to whack job marilou:
See you in November.

"Thank you for putting your rank political motives on display." - ArapaGOP
[ Parent ]
at Tin Foil Danny Maes' inauguration party!

[ Parent ]
Oh-now that's a party to crash.
I wonder if Elvis or Jimi will headline?
[ Parent ]
Sorry to break this to you
but we won't be seeing each other in November.  You are not invited.

Code Pink stands for really, really radically ignorant babes.
[ Parent ]
LOL!
You thought about a comeback for nearly 24 hours, and this is what you come up with? Priceless.

"Thank you for putting your rank political motives on display." - ArapaGOP
[ Parent ]
Are you upset
because I don't hang around here 24/7 waiting for the Aristotle to post?

Code Pink stands for really, really radically ignorant babes.
[ Parent ]
Who are "You Libs?"
Anyone who disagrees with you?

Let me know.  Just as soon as you renounce the idea of killing babies before they get food stamps.

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno

[ Parent ]
The polling trendline in this race defies the historical norm
which is that federal legislative candidates of the party other than the President in mid-term elections are weaker in earlier polling and stronger in later polling.

This may have a lot to do with the fact that unlike most incumbents, the people of Colorado haven't had much time to get to know Senator Bennet very well.  He still has room to gain support simply through name recognition.

O
Generally an incumbent who is at less than 50% on labor day loses.  
Bennet has yet to crack 45.

We already know Bennet bought his win - that ability to raise more money is part of why many in our party love him. -DavidThi808
Michael Bennet - ineffective, dishonest and immoral - Democrat for US Senate  
[ Parent ]
It's Charley Miller's year. Haven't you heard?

[ Parent ]
Rasmussen Tightens Senate Race | 143 comments
Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?






Advertise Here!
ads@coloradopols.com


Active Users
Currently 4 user(s) logged on.

Search




Advanced Search


Colorado Pols Network


Jeffco Pols
Summers, Kerr to Host Joint Town Hall on Saturday
Jeffco Pols
Joe Coors Announcing CD-7 Run Today
Jeffco Pols
Roybal Fined for Wiechman Loan
Jeffco Pols
  More >

Denver Pols
Poll: Who Will Win the HD-1 Primary?
Denver Pols
Hancock Rolls Out Economic Development Plan
Denver Pols
Michael Hancock Wades into ASSET Debate
Denver Pols
  More >













RSS 2.0



Pols Gets Mobile: ColoradoPols.com/mobile/

Colorado Pols is on Twitter: twitter.com/coloradopols

Email Pols


How to Write a Diary That Will Make the Front Page



Terms of Use/Privacy Policy



Pols Posting Policies



The Pols Penalty Box



Yard Signs!



The Pols "Mailbag"

Mailbag #1



Relevant Links

The Big Media Blog

Blog It Right

Blog For Growth

Blogometer

Business Word

Colorado Capitol Journal

Colorado Center on Law and Policy

Colorado Democratic Party

Colorado Ethics Watch

Colorado Independent

Colorado Labor Blog

Colorado Veterans for America

Colorado Legislature

Colorado Lib

Colorado Libertarian Blog

Colorado Media Matters

Colorado Progressive Coalition

Colorado Republican Party

Colorado Secretary of State

Colorado Senate Dems

Colorado Senate GOP

Colorado Young Democrats

Commentary Today

Coyote Gulch

CU Democrats

Curious Stranger

Daily Kos

Dan Willis-Rumors

Dem Notes

Democracy for Colorado

Denver Politics

East Boulder County Politics

Ed Stein Ink

Election Neutrality Now

eleXn

George in Denver

Great Education Colorado

Head First Colorado

The Hotline Political Network

Junction Daily Blog

Left in the West

Liberal and Loving It

Maintain Educational Standards in Colorado

Mount Virtus

MyDD

National Journal

On Call

Peak Dems

Political State Report

Progress Now

Prometheus

Project Vote Smart

Radio Free Denver

Senate Guru

Slapstick Politics

Steam Powered Opinions

Square State

Stygius

TalkLeft

The Thicket

The Bell Policy Center

The Hypothetical Wren

ThomasMC.com

Toilet Paper Online

TRACER Campaign Finance

View From a Height

Walter in Denver

Wash Park Prophet

Western Democrat


 
Colorado Pols is wholly owned by Colorado Pols, LLC
webmaster-at-coloradopols.com

Powered by: SoapBlox