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Frazier, Perlmutter Closer Race Than Thought...Not Yet

by: Colorado Pols

Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 12:15:59 PM MDT

According to a recent poll by Republican firm Magellan Strategies, Republican challenger Ryan Frazier leads Democrat incumbent Rep. Ed Perlmutter 40-39, with 11% undecided (MOE +/- 3.4%).

While the Frazier campaign certainly wants to trumpet this poll as a sign that he can defeat Perlmutter, we don't see it yet. This is the first public poll on this matchup, and Frazier doesn't actually do better than generic matchup polls between Republican and Democratic candidates. Since neither campaign has started heavy TV advertising, this poll is essentially a "generic R vs. D" poll.

The real problem for Frazier is that there's no reason to think he can expand on this. As of the last FEC reporting period, Perlmutter had a million dollars more cash on hand than Frazier; while that deficit could be made up somewhat by the NRCC, since CD-7 has never made it to the top of the pickup list, there's no reason to think the NRCC would spend any real money here when they have better odds in CD-4 with Cory Gardner.

According to the Cook Political Report, CD-7 is a "Likely Democrat" district, and President Obama won the district by 18 points in 2008. Frazier is going to need a lot more than this poll to convince national Republicans to toss real money into CD-7; barring that decision, he's got nowhere to go but down. There are three potentially vulnerable Democrats in Colorado (Perlmutter, Rep. John Salazar and Rep. Betsy Markey), and it's extremely unlikely that all three will lose their bid for re-election. Perlmutter has to be considered the safest of the three, if nothing else because he is in a district with a Democratic voter registration advantage.

Colorado Pols :: Frazier, Perlmutter Closer Race Than Thought...Not Yet

Tags: ed perlmutter, ryan frazier, (All Tags)

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Frazier, Perlmutter Closer Race Than Thought...Not Yet | 41 comments

The seat is as good as Frazier's.

"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle

by: bjwilson83 @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 18:19:23 PM UTC

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Absolutely.

Republicans will win all 436 seats in the House of Representatives, including the non-voting delegate from the District of Columbia, by margins of at least 20 percent.

by: Voyageur @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 18:37:15 PM UTC

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by: you @ soon

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Could very well happen.

Or something close to it. This is the worst congress we've ever had, and it shows in the approval ratings.

"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle

by: bjwilson83 @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 18:40:46 PM UTC

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by: you @ soon

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You won't hear it on this blog,

or at least find many to admit it, but American voters are fed up with just about anyone in office right now. There will be R's that lose as well, but I am anticipating a speaker JB after November. Salazar is not as safe as Perlmutter...in my humber opinion.

by: onebigrepublican @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 18:43:23 PM UTC

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by: you @ soon

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Well, hopefully the R's lost in the primaries for the most part.

I think 3 incumbent senators have been knocked off.

"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle

by: bjwilson83 @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 19:42:12 PM UTC

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by: you @ soon

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Bennett, (possibly) Murkowsky and who?

by: Voyageur @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 21:48:06 PM UTC

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Hmm, maybe only two.

I was sure someone had said 3 but I can't think of the third. Maybe Specter?

"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle

by: bjwilson83 @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 22:09:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

spector was a dimmycrat at the time he lost his primary

I think it's just murkowski and Bennet, assuming Murkowski stands, on the R side. If you count all incumbents, it's definitely three

by: Voyageur @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 22:12:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agreed

Of the three potentially vulnerable Dems from Colorado (Perlmutter, Salazar and Markey), you'd have to put Perlmutter third on this list -- if nothing else because he is in a D-leaning district.

by: Colorado Pols @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 20:03:37 PM UTC

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The most vulnerable Dem is Bennet

With Buck up double digits, under any standard turnout, the down ballot impacts could be massive.

Any word on when will Hickenlooper endorse Bennet and what the target week is for Obama to show for a photo op?

by: Libertad @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 20:19:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

'Tad's fact-free zone

Hickenlooper endorsed Bennet, and there aren't any polls that show Buck up "double digits," not even your beloved Rassy.

by: RedGreen @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 20:29:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Buck's up 9 hard points

When you apply any rational turnout to the remaining 11% it puts Buck up double digits.

next?

by: Libertad @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 20:57:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Earth to Tad

9 (now, 3) are both single digit numbers. Did you study math under BJWilson?

by: Voyageur @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 21:49:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

However

You're failing to account for the debates, Republican ads, grassroots organization, etc. By the time all is said and done Bennet will probably receive a double digit shellacking.

"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle

by: bjwilson83 @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 22:12:23 PM UTC

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Oh, Buck can ride Dan Maes' coattails

Dan's leading by 20 points and going away...;-)

by: Voyageur @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 22:16:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Add the fact that 50 percent of Americans

reject the Tea Party while only 30 percent endorse it. I suspect the more people learn about Ken Buck, the more likely they are to vote Bennet.

by: Voyageur @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 22:17:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

LOL

"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle

by: bjwilson83 @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 22:54:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

In your case, WPTG

(whistling past the graveyard)
And how's that rapist's rights thing working out for you and ken?

by: Voyageur @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 22:59:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Just about as well as that baby brain bashing thing is working out for Bennet.

"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle

by: bjwilson83 @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 23:12:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

seems to sell to the dems, independents are turned off by it.

We already know Bennet bought his win - that ability to raise more money is part of why many in our party love him. -DavidThi808
Michael Bennet - ineffective, dishonest and immoral - Democrat for US Senate

by: H-man @ Tue Aug 31, 2010 at 00:37:08 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Salazar is OK.

Pueblo and the valley still love him and he has veterans' and farmers' support all over the district. The purist Democrats aren't happy with him, but they'll vote for him anyway.

Sometimes, I guess, you have to let the inner bitch out.

by: gertie97 @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 21:58:23 PM UTC

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How about Guam and Puerto Rico?

Voyageur:
It is now about 253 Dem to 178 Republican.
According to RCP the safe seats are 143 to 163.
Neither Perlmutter or Salazar are listed as safe seats.
If the Dems lose 50 seats making it 203-228 they are both probably going to make it.
If the Dems lose 60 or more, one will fall, in my opinion.

We already know Bennet bought his win - that ability to raise more money is part of why many in our party love him. -DavidThi808
Michael Bennet - ineffective, dishonest and immoral - Democrat for US Senate

by: H-man @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 19:27:03 PM UTC

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by: you @ soon

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Both "lean dem" on generic ballot

I think your comment proves the point of the posting. On RCP, CD-7 is listed as leans dem on a generic ballot. Generic is not running on either the dem or repub ticket. Its Perlmutter, who has won twice and is well known and liked in the district (and well funded), versus a city councilman that appears to have real talent, but is not well known in most of the district(and is not well funded). I agree with conclusion, as far as it goes, but the chances of the dems losing 60 or more seats seems extremely remote.

by: Early Worm @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 20:07:39 PM UTC

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This is a riot, the Democrats seem to be in full freakout mode

The job destruction and policy failures are taking their toll.

Admittedly Frazier and Perlmutter are very good people at the personal level - they are fine people.

The problems are the "blinded by liberal fever" policies that Perlmutter supported.

The blistering effects on the 7th CD - through jobs losses and income reductions - have turned POTUS great agenda into one big fever blister.

by: Libertad @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 18:37:23 PM UTC

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I just wonder when we'll start to hear the exuses,

and what they'll be. "We didn't spend enough" isn't going to fly.

"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle

by: bjwilson83 @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 19:43:20 PM UTC

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Right, because those innovative Republican policies are going to save us all...

Oh wait, I haven't heard any ideas from the right. Let me guess, you're going to cut taxes, probably without cutting spending to match, adding even more to the national debt. Bush policies at their finest.

And if you will cut spending to match your tax cuts, what specifically will you cut?

by: cunninjo @ Tue Aug 31, 2010 at 13:17:56 PM UTC

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Guys, I see this one as a close race, could go either way

same thing with Salazar/Tipton. The trending is for the lean Dem seats to become toss-up and I think both will be in play. As the polling gets distributed they will move and attract some money.

As the story goes from, will the Republicans win the house to what will be the size of the majority, these seats will surface. I have thought for about three months the republicans would pick up 50 seats. If that expands to 60-65 as it looks like it might, one of these two seats will likely be one of the 60-65.

We already know Bennet bought his win - that ability to raise more money is part of why many in our party love him. -DavidThi808
Michael Bennet - ineffective, dishonest and immoral - Democrat for US Senate

by: H-man @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 18:38:28 PM UTC

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Agree somewhat.

Dems did the same thing in 2006--once the DCCC saw how many House races were really in play, they loosened up some cash last minute and went after seats that they hadn't previously considered supporting.

Spending in CD4 is a top priority since it's the most vulnerable; they will probably buy ad time in CD3 if it looks close enough but I don't see them doing it before October. I don't see them spending money on CD7 at all unless internal polling tells them a different story close to the election.

"I wouldn't characterize caloric intake as "professional development." c rork

by: Middle of the Road @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 20:23:15 PM UTC

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MOTR

I don't know the polling in Markey's district other than RCP moved it from toss-up to lean R, but with Buck polling like he did in the primary and the turn out in those two counties being goosed by him running, I think they will come to the conclusion they are wasting money sooner than later.
Time will tell.

We already know Bennet bought his win - that ability to raise more money is part of why many in our party love him. -DavidThi808
Michael Bennet - ineffective, dishonest and immoral - Democrat for US Senate

by: H-man @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 21:22:54 PM UTC

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I'm sorry, I'm not following you.

Which group is it that you think will pull their money out of Markey's race?

"I wouldn't characterize caloric intake as "professional development." c rork

by: Middle of the Road @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 21:38:35 PM UTC

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I think national money, DCCC and the like

They are going to have to move money around as things worsen and to do that cut back in some of the areas they had earlier targeted, as I see it.
I think they are playing defense in about 50 districts, that looks like it will expand to 75-100 pretty soon.

We already know Bennet bought his win - that ability to raise more money is part of why many in our party love him. -DavidThi808
Michael Bennet - ineffective, dishonest and immoral - Democrat for US Senate

by: H-man @ Tue Aug 31, 2010 at 00:41:41 AM UTC

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What it does mean

Ryan Frazier will

1. Have a much easier time raising money
2. Have a good chance to be targeted by the national Republicans
3. Force the DSCC to spend money on Perlmutter
that they had not planned on spending
4. Keep Perlmutter from raising money or helping other Democratic candidates either locally or nationally

It is stunning that this guy Frazier is even within shouting distance

by: Interlocken Loop @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 21:03:01 PM UTC

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The NRSC, like Obama, is a gift that keeps on giving.

by: H-man @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 21:18:29 PM UTC

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This is a good thing for Perlmutter.

It'll scare up the donors and volunteers who were yawning at his "safe seat" and hopefully get more feet on streets and cash out of pocket books. Despite that, I agree it's really just an "R vs. D" poll at this point. Frazier is largely an unknown quantity and loses support with thinking voters every time he opens his mouth and reveals that he lacks any actual ideas that go beyond sound-bites. There's also a libertarian in the race, Buck Bailey, who's been siphoning a little support from Frazier by being kooky but at least unafraid to state his actual opinions.

Bottom line, Perlmutter's donations will increase, Frazier will get stomped, and Ed's reputation as a tough campaigner will be cemented; he won't have to worry about dragging around the stigma of never having had a difficult race, should he choose to go for a higher office one day.

We'll miss you, Gabby.

by: ProgressiveCowgirl @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 22:03:42 PM UTC

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Perlmutter, Salazar will make it.

The toss-up is Markey.

by: Voyageur @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 22:13:42 PM UTC

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Love her but unfortunately don't expect her to keep her seat, personally.

It's just not the year for that seat to stay blue.

We'll miss you, Gabby.

by: ProgressiveCowgirl @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 22:37:52 PM UTC

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well, the rs have screwed up so much in colorado, pc

Any ticket led by Tin Foil Danny Maes is found to hurt further down. I also think the Buck bubble will burst pretty quickly as voters get to know him. And Gardner has made a lot of goofs. The Tea Party takeover the GOP could spell catastrophe, a 1964 style debacle.

by: Voyageur @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 22:46:15 PM UTC

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Voyageur - that "toss-up" was moved to leans R by RCP about a month ago.

by: H-man @ Tue Aug 31, 2010 at 00:43:12 AM UTC

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maybe releasing the poll will boomerang

by: Interlocken Loop @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 22:37:27 PM UTC

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Correction to the story: Cook has CD-7 leans D, not likely D

by: H-man @ Tue Aug 31, 2010 at 14:57:04 PM UTC

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Incumbents polling less than 50% on labor day lose.

Perlmutter is getting 39%.

We already know Bennet bought his win - that ability to raise more money is part of why many in our party love him. -DavidThi808
Michael Bennet - ineffective, dishonest and immoral - Democrat for US Senate

by: H-man @ Tue Aug 31, 2010 at 14:59:44 PM UTC

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Frazier, Perlmutter Closer Race Than Thought...Not Yet | 41 comments