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April 19, 2010 05:38 PM UTC

Pew Study a Wake up Call to Democrats--But is Anybody Listening?

  • 72 Comments
  • by: Middle of the Road

A new survey by the Pew Research Center offers a grim prediction of this year’s election for Democrats as well as how Americans view the role the federal government is playing in their lives.

The broader question for politicos is how does that translate at the polls if you’re a Democrat and an incumbent? Badly, according to Pew Director Andrew Kohut.

The level of mistrust is sobering; only 22% responded that they view government favorably “almost always or most of the time.”

Compare this to every 3 out of 4 surveyed that said they were either “angry or frustrated;” these are numbers considered

…among the lowest measures in the half-century since pollsters have been asking the question.

The bad news just gets worse; according to the Pew Research Center, “the number of Americans who have a favorable view of the legislative branch declined by half over the past year, to 25 percent, the lowest level Pew has ever recorded.”

And that number should give both Democrats and Republicans pause because there doesn’t seem to be much differentiation being made by those polled–at this point, there’s no trust in government or Congress, no matter who you are.

Democrats, however, face a bigger uphill climb this election season because of several factors–a bad economy, the passage of the health care reform bill, the fact that they control Congress and the White House and growing dissatisfaction among Independents.

Bluntly put, you lose the Independents; you lose your job.

Politely put, the Democratic Party is either in denial or “…have been politically asleep when we talk about the intensity of their views,” Kohut says. ”

Independents who are “highly frustrated with government are highly committed to voting this year,” he says. “And they favor the Republican candidates in their districts by an overwhelming 66-to-13 percent margin.”

 

And before you continue to dismiss the Tea Party, let’s evaluate how they did in this poll–nearly a 1/3 of Independents and a 1/3 of self identified Republicans declared that the Tea Party most closely reflects their views and their level of dissatisfaction with the role government is playing in their lives.

The results of this polling/study were so grim that, according to Kohut who was interviewed on NPR this a.m., the release of the results were delayed in March in order for the Research Center to do three more in depth follow up surveys. Kohut admitted that the numbers were so bad, he initially doubted their validity.

Perhaps it is time to stop spinning how voters are going to come around once they understand what the Democratic Party is trying to do. Perhaps it is time to get seriously motivated or face the fact that the Democratic Party is going to experience a bloodbath in November.

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72 thoughts on “Pew Study a Wake up Call to Democrats–But is Anybody Listening?”

  1. I think a lot of this comes down to unemployment remaining high while Wall St now shows record profits. To most Americans that shows a broken system that favors the powerful as it was our tax money that saved Wall St from destruction.

    And people have a very good point on that. If the banks were still struggling, or if unemployment was dropping fast, then it would not be as big a deal. But the dichotomy is a killer politically.

    1. The facts are that the principles woven within the national policy direction are flawed.

      While President Obama might right the ship, getting those leading national policy journals to pivot from their value-less indoctrination will prove difficult. Worse yet, this photo of ole Jake just screams distrust and liberalism.

      POTUS and clan have promised years of change in hopes of changing one of the greatest countries in the history of the world. You’re now being “checked” by the people; that can be painful and embarrassing. The people want fairness, freedom and their dignity.

      If you can find a way to weave redistribution of wealth, nationalized healthcare, new taxes, higher taxes into those principles you’ll return to lead. I’m thinking it might not happen for you.  

  2. But, you are not listening to political talk radio and so you are surprised.  The dems are “too good” to listen to the radio; and too good to protest the almost total control of the public radio airwaves by republicans.  College educated dems listen to NPR and don’t sully their brains with mindless talk radio.

    It is the economy, stupid.  But David et.al., you fail to finish the sentence.  When I say the republicans have used talk radio to “frame the debate,”  this is what I mean:  The repubs say “Unemployment remains high BECAUSE of government spending by the dems..”  “The current economic situation was CAUSED by the dems.”  The repubs are also pointing out how good government jobs are…paywise, benefits and pensions.  It is not that the dems have failed to make good arguments, it is that they dems have failed to seize the publicly owned airwaves to broadcast  good arguments.

    For my part, I told you dems on this blog, a year ago March, to look out for the power of the republican control of the public radio airwaves.  For my trouble, I have been dismissed and ridiculed.  I know my stuff, people.  This country is in deep do do.

    1. But I don’t think it’s all of it. While talk radio makes a lot of shit up, they also bring up some very real issues such as how we saved Wall St, and Wall St has now told the rest of us to go take a hike.

      2. Mike Rosen? Russ Limbaugh?  And this quote:

        Wall St has now told the rest of us to go take a hike.

        That statement has been translated on talk radio to the “Dems just want permanent  baliouts.”

        Do you agree?

            2. Let me see if I can explain the difference:

              1) Blogs are inherently democratic (little d for real, this time)

              You can post a response on a blog.

              2) People who blog have access to a computer and TIME to blog.

              3) There is not the repetition on a blog which you get on talk radio…in “branding” or “framing,” repetition is crucial.  Blogs by their very nature, break up the repetition.

              Talk Radio

              1) People can listen and do other things…..drive…for example.

              2) People do not have to access to a computer or the time to read/blog.

              3) You can NOT make a response on talk radio….callers are screened…people who disagree are ridiculed …if they can get on…

              4) Despite our feeble attempts to neutralize Libertad, there is little acrimonious argument on this blog or other blogs. You have to listen to talk radio to fully appreciate the degree of hate which is broadcast.

              5) There is no dialogue or exchange of ideas on most of talk radio.

              TALK RADIO IS A MICROPHONE WHICH BLANKETS THIS COUNTRY WITH REPUBLICAN PROPAGANDA.

                1. Take it to the street, baby. Talk to your neighbors, family, friends, co-workers, store clerks…you know what I am saying.

                  We have to start speaking the truth as aggressively as they tell lies.

                  The imbalance is that the written word usually works best when reasoned discussion is at play. Radio lends itself to incitement of mobs because of its’ use of the human voice, which lends itself to passion and emotion.

                  I am, in a different dimension, a singer and songwriter. I can tell you the power of the spoken word. Put it to music and it can change the world.

      1. However, we won in 2008 based on emotions around the economy, the war in Iraq and incompetency. We’ve lost the high ground with regard to the economic message. To Dwyer’s point, Democrats did not cause this mess but we’ve been given a year and a half to fix it. The expectations game is way out of whack and needs to be reestablished. If there’s a bloodbath for Dems in November it’s precisely due to the Dems inability to control the expectations game around the economy and the failure to hammer on the fact that a decade of Republican philosophy caused the collapse and the so-called “fresh faced” Republicans  are no different in their ideology.

        It all boils down to this; things were bad but have gotten better, if you vote for Republicans the economy is going to crash.  

          1. I absolutely depend on this blog for factual accurate statements.  I don’t know who he was, I just remember the quote….more so now than ever.

              1. …and I’m from New York.

                Then I remembered I got to go to the world premiere of Alice.

                My bike racing club makes big contributions to the City Parks Foundation, and as such had a table at their annual gala.  As a member of the board, I got to attend the premiere at Alice Tully Hall, followed by dinner in the whale room at the Museum of Natural History.  Cool!

                I remember the first time I heard Coltrane on soprano.

                Opened a whole new world of harmonics for me.

  3. This is a hackish thesis. The Pew poll found broad discontent with not only the political class, but also the financial sector and institutions in general. You extrapolate this into wish fulfillment that the Dems are doomed in an election that won’t occur until November unless they heed your sober analysis.

    The Tea Party is a Nixon-era relic comprised of class and race-obessed whites that come out of the political woodwork about once every decade. Any serious political campaign in this state would be foolish in trying to seriously cater to their votes.

    E.J. Dionne recently wrote: “In fact, both parties stand to lose if they accept the laughable notion that this media-created protest movement is the voice of true populism. Democrats will spend their time chasing votes they will never win. Republicans will turn their party into an angry and narrow redoubt with no hope of building a durable majority.”

    I can’t quibble with any of that and anyone trying to prove that the Tea Party is a serious movement with any lasting significance beyond the immediate, not to mention a certain blogger writing a deeply lazy entry on a Monday morning, still has all their work ahead of them.

    1. pandering to the Tea Party. I guess you read what you want to read and ignore the rest, including the writing on just about every wall. You remind me of the Republican Party in reverse in 2006–I’d prefer not to be them this November but I have a feeling you are invested in seeing the Democratic Party fall or fail.

      Either way, nice to see you back.  

      1. The 2006 class of Republican officeholders were not advancing any sort of meaningful agenda. It was subservient to a White House that was uninterested in the reelection of its legislative brethren. When Republicans gained their majority in 2002 and 2004, it spent its political capital on voting for the Iraq War and passing a budget-busting prescription drug benefit without complaint from the current Tea Party fringe before they became activated by the election of a black President.

        Legislative majorities are meant to pass big and divisive election and they’re not meant to last. The current Dem majority was painstakingly built in 2006-2008. It’s passed HCR, student loan reform and probable financial sector reform. That’s a stunning use of electoral mandate by any definition. If the Dems lose even both houses of Congress this year (not likely) it will not have been in vain.  

        1. You presume that politics is about policy and legislative mandates.  I argue that it is not.  It is about power…getting it and KEEPING it.

          The dems have been losing power for fifty years. I cite the Presidential elections.  Kennedy v. Nixon was the last election which was what I would call a “regular election.”  In 1964, the country was still working to demonstrate that ballots, not bullets are how we made changes in this country, reeling from the assassination of an elected president.  In 1968, the dems had their leading candidate assassinated; MLK had been assassinated; the party and the country were in turmoil.  The repubs won.  In 1972, 18 year olds voted for the first time and Nixon had eliminated the draft. He won by a landslide.  In 1976, there had been a constitutional crisis caused by Nixon; the dems won.   The next dem victory came in 1992, when there was a strong third party candidate who took votes from the repubs.  Without Perot, Clinton would not have won.  The next democratic victory came in 2008, when the county, indeed the world, was on the verge of economic collapse.  

          1. The  repubs have managed in 18 months to destroy the Democratic majority, in the public opinion polls.  The repubs have a strategy which will give them effective control of Congress and I believe the White House in 2012….and for the future….and it will NOT matter what their policies are….they will have the power.

            The dems have been focusing on policy and legislation.  They have failed, miserably, to consolidate their majority and protect it.  I say, bring back Howard Dean and Carvel….and begin to challenge the republican stranglehold of the public airwaves..   Do not allow the lies to go unanswered.  I think it is far too late to work; but, at least the dems will go down fighting..

    2. Lets withhold judgement on the teaparty strength until after the Florida, TN, and Arizona republican primaries.  I think they are coming up in May.  Teapartyers are supporting a candidate in each race….I think that Cristi (sp?) FL governor has already fallen victim to Rubio…a teaparty favorite….although, the usually conservative Cuban-American vote cannot be discounted as a factor in Rubio’s success…

      Meantime, in republican controlled talkradio land: Colorado…Ken Buck and Dan Maes have the nod from the teaparty talk show hosts…..they are coming up in the polls…

      vamos a ver.

      1. And Rubio currently leads Crist by 23 points in the latest Quinnipiac poll.

        Crist has until April 30th to change his party affiliation and run as an independent.

  4. this is a clear indication of a trend I mentioned on this site last year. There are two political paradigms at play. The horizontal…left/right or liberal/conservative, and the vertical…rich/poor or haves/havenots.

    As long as the middle class was doing well and the poor could aspire to the middle class, the wealthy could keep the horizontal paradigm as playing field. The pain of the “free market experiment”as explained by Naomi Klein in “the Shock Doctrine”, is the source of the results in the Pew poll. The Corporatists always get too greedy.

    I think dwyer is absolutely correct that this hinges on the message. So far, the Pubs have been able to control it. I noted in my April 2nd GJFreePress column (unapologetic plug) that, if you have sufficient money you can apply the principle used by the government in Aldous Huxleys’ “Brave New World”; “62,400 repetitions makes one truth”.

    “When the truth is found, to be lies

    And all the joy within in you dies,…

    (Grace Slick/ Jefferson Airplane)

    The people want somebody to love…God forbid it should be Sarah Palin.

      1. utilizes that principle is “the New Natural Gas”. I wish I had $20,000,000 to run a TV ad every 15 minutes on all networks showing pictures of flaming faucets, waste pits, and dead livestock, while proclaiming the “New Natural Gas”. George Soros, where are you when I need you?

        1. Doncha know…its the people of the oil and natural gas industry behind those ads Duke.  (with ‘paid for by API’ in tiny-weeney letters…)

  5. who has to give you chemotherapy and it makes you sick and mad at medical personnel who do this to you but ultimately it could save your life.  It is a long ways to November and the lies concerning Health Insurance Reform will have become stale and meaningless as grannys plug stays in the socket.  And if the voters choose not to continue to support pragmatic but painful choices then our country deserves to be run by the Tea Party extremists although you can’t tell them apart from run of the mill Republicans.

  6. When you live in a family of opinionated voters who read/listen to the news and they could easily resemble the voter registration in Colorado if everyone lived here (33,33,33) and they generally agree you take notice.  Here’s what I’m finding on my e-mail/Facebook/phone calls from family members.

    1) They absolutely abhor the militant ranks within the Tea Party…

    but

    2) They understand why people are mad and don’t want to take it anymore.

    The causes may vary but I think we’re past the liberal/conservative root cause.

    1. I think the Tea Party has tapped into a rage and a dissatisfaction that stems from a whole lot more than just liberal positions versus conservative positions. And how they are using their new found power is frightening impressive. It is also frightening ignorant how a majority of Democrats dismiss their movement instead of actively trying to find productive ways to counter it.  

          1. Sorry that a lot of tea party people are racist, but it’s really not my fault.

            http://www.washingtonpost.com/…

            Demonstrators began gathering early Thursday for speeches at Freedom Plaza. Among them was Jerry Johnson, 58, a lawyer from Berryville, Va., who held a homemade sign depicting the United States as the Titanic striking an iceberg.

            …

            Johnson expressed opposition to Obama. “It’s not just because he’s black,” he said. “I wish I could tell you that I loved this guy, that he was a great president, that I had faith in him. But I have none. Zero.”

            See anything an honest conservative might object to there?

          2. Why don’t Republicans actually help clean up the problems they created?

            That will work really well!

            The “Just say no” mantra doesn’t really help, does it?

              1. Other than cut taxes, borrow more money, and take credit for an economic recover that’s already started?

                Seriously, what are the Republican alternatives?

                No health care reform?

                No re-regulation of the financial industry?

                No regulation of the oil and gas industry?

                I keep hearing things like – We need health care reform, just not this bill – We need financial reform, just not this bill. But I never see an alternative.  

                The last spell of Republican rule left us with 2 land wars in Asia and the deepest recession since the Great Depression. What do you do for an encore?

                I know, I know.

                Cut taxes.

        2. I think it important for rural dems to articulate that we also have guns, use guns, value the 2nd Amendment,

          Rural values of course means more than gun rights but that is what Ken Chlouber is talking about when he talks about “rural values”. Guns and a “please ignore us except when we want $”

      2. I’m not necessarily buying the premise that the tea party is making the Dems’ chances any worse than they would be in any off-year after winning the White House, but, assuming that is true for the sake of this conversation what do you think would be the way to go? I don’t really have any ideas.

        This entire diary reminds me of Pat Caddell. Caddell’s strategy has been to tap into all of this anger and distrust of government. Not that I think Caddell has the best interest of the Democratic Party in mind, nor that his presence would have made Romanoff–or any Dem for that matter–more electable, but maybe he was on to something.

        All of the candidates have had a populist tint to their messages–Romanoff with the PAC stance, Bennet with the desire to clean up DC, Norton and Buck with their conservative populism of blaming all of our problems on governmental growth–but if the table odds are stacked against the Democrats from the outset, then what, if anything can they do to counter it?

        Personally, I think that Democrats shouldn’t try to compromise their values purely for the sake of satiating the Tea Party pitchfork-waving anti-incumbent bloodthirst. Doing so would probably only oppen the doors to Republicans making them look like flip-flopping phonies who only care about getting re-elected, and, if they take that strategy, that’s pretty much what they would be.

        Maybe the key lies in honing the messages of individual candidates to satisfy the frustration among independents without compromising their core beliefs.

          1. Since Obama took office, Republicans have made their entire electoral strategy one of obstructing every possible part of the government.

            What the Democrats should be doing is showing the voters that they have a choice. They can vote for the party that put them in this situation in the first place, and did absolutely nothing to help lift us out of it, or they can vote for the party that has been trying to do something–and gotten a significant amount of work done cosnidering they were forced to work without the minority party.

            Ultimately they should be asking voters who, at the tail-end of the worst recession in modern times, deserves to keep their jobs. Is it the party that actually worked? Or they ones who sat on their hands and collected their paychecks anyway?

            2. And my reply is not aimed at you, just to be clear right off the bat. I just need to be sure you know that.

              Voters are notoriously guilty of short term memories so it’s up to us to remind them of where we were 2 years ago and how we arrived there. And that includes reminding fellow Dems, who in my opinion, have largely remained unmotivated (although I was somewhat encouraged by caucus turnout) because they somehow assumed that having a majority in the White House and Congress would give them absolutely everything they ever hoped for and it would happen in 12 months.

              Make an ad with a rolling list of what Democrats have passed and compare it to the fucking mess we were left to clean up. Stop letting someone else frame the conversation. Death panels, massive bailouts, healthy forests, axis of evil–how far back do we have to go to look at how good Republicans are at framing?

              And no need to satiate the Tea Partiers–that’s not what I’m advocating, particularly since I disagree with about 99.9% of what they stand for. But for the love of God, stop pretending they aren’t having an impact and that their presence in the short term isn’t an asset to Republicans in this election cycle.

              They have wised up fast–they aren’t breaking off into a 3rd party which would kill their movement. Instead, they’ve consolidated their power, their fundraising and their influence within the Republican Party and are using it to maximum effect.

              And this may seem obvious but stop mocking people that can’t spell. Stop lumping every single Tea Partier into a category that is nothing more than a convenient stereotype. Quit calling every genuinely pissed off person a racist. In other words, stop being condescending assholes.

              I mean, does anybody remember just a few short months ago how really sane, rational, thoughtful folks like Fidel were talking about not even voting in this year’s election? There is a rage, a dissatisfaction with the system and good reason for it and it isn’t just on the right–because it is broken, particularly the Senate. The old boys network makes their own rules, breaks their own rules and are accountable to absolutely no one. And we all know it.

              And last but probably most important of all, stop ignoring the writing on the wall. Ignorance won’t be bliss come November.

               

              1. If you want to be on the side of the teabaggers, it’s your right, but don’t tell me whether I can make fun of them or not. And don’t pull that bullshit where either everyone’s a racist or nobody’s a racist. Some teabaggers are racist, and I don’t have to feel ashamed for pointing that out. Nobody’s ever claimed that everyone who opposes Obama is racist, not even me, so take that shit somewhere else.

                As for whether teabaggers help Republicans, everybody knows that. And everybody HAS known that since way back when they first got started as an astroturf group funded by right-wingers.

                I’m not sure what effect you think this awesome advice to everyone (OMG Democrats might lose, I’m the first to notice this!) is going to have. But you haven’t presented any actual new ideas. You just have one old idea (give voters a laundry list of things Democrats are better on, which is what Democrats do EVERY election cycle), and a bunch of complaining about things other people are saying and doing.

                1. Hit a nerve, huh? Cause you sure are taking a comment that wasn’t directed at you mighty personal. And usually when someone becomes this defensive, this riled, it’s because there is more than a grain of truth.

                  The diary wasn’t advice. It was about a Pew survey. But take it however you like.  

                  1. but you said some things I thought were wrong. As for calling me “defensive,” I guess that’s a good standard way of deflecting any genuine criticism when you don’t want to deal with it, so, um, nice job. I don’t feel the slightest need to defend my etiquette to you, so I don’t agree I’m being defensive. Just disagreeing.

    2. I think that there’s a lot of pain and suffering, frustration and worry. That’s not partisan. It only becomes partisan when we assign blame or propose fixes.

      I think that a lot of the disaffection comes from both the left (we’re not doing enough) as well as the right (we’re doing too much) and indies (whatever we’re doing, it’s not working).

      Regardless, the party in power gets blamed, and for voters, that usually means losing votes on election day.  

  7. Democrats shouldn’t be scared of the Tea Party; they should celebrate it. The Democrats are going to lose seats in Congress this November but, thanks to the Tea Party, the losses are likely to be smaller than they might otherwise be.

    Tea Partiers are certain to push Republican candidates to the right. In the Republican primaries, moderates will lose against more hard-line conservatives or be forced to take more conservative positions than they might otherwise like. Those more conservative Republicans and right-leaning stances will have less appeal to the independents and moderates who usually cast the decisive votes in the general election. Democrats will be the beneficiaries.

    Look what’s happening in Florida. Moderate Republican Governor Charlie Crist is running for the U.S. Senate but faces a strong challenge in the Republican primary from Marco Rubio, a far more conservative candidate supported by the Tea Partiers. Rubio currently leads Crist by 23 points in the latest polls of Republican voters and looks increasingly certain to be the party’s nominee on Election Day. But that development is good for Democrats: Rubio is less likely than Crist to win the general election.

    According to a recent Quinnipiac poll, both Crist and Rubio lead the presumptive Democratic nominee, Representative Kendrick Meek. Yet Crist’s lead over Meek is substantial, 14 percentage points (48%-34%) while Rubio’s lead over Meek is razor thin–only four points (42%-38%), just higher than the poll’s margin of error. Rubio might still win the general election, but it will be a much closer race than if Crist is the Republican candidate. And nationwide, Democrats are likely to squeak out victories in a number of elections that they should lose.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/…


    Tea party activists in Ohio are angry at the Ohio Republican Party, saying it is using its resources to keep them from winning seats on the state GOP’s 66-member central committee in the May 4 primary.

    “They just don’t want to have to deal with us,” said Lori Viars, a Warren County tea party activist who is challenging an incumbent state central committeewoman. “And they are doing everything they can to keep us out.”

    http://news.cincinnati.com/art…

    1. The polls say people like the tea party, or at least their emotional reaction, the Democrats are worried (see: this diary), and the media seems to be covering their rallies as if it’s the first time people have ever waved signs in protest in the history of the USA.

      And yet, the Republicans haven’t decided to embrace them yet? The GOP should be doing everything in their power to make sure they go out and vote in droves. Arguing with them, or worse, marginalizing them in their eyes, would be dumb at this point.

      Or maybe it’s just one gigantic catch-22 on both sides–Democrats can’t win this year no matter what they do, and Republicans can’t lose with the tea party, but haven’t figured out how to get their establishment candidates the tea party support necessary to succeed.

      1. Democrats lose a shitload of seats in November and when the general public gets a load of what they’ve put in power, corrects itself in 2012. Republicans may reap some huge short term gains this year but shoot themselves in the foot for the White House in 2012 by moving so far to the right.  

  8. but let me say it this way:  If Dems don’t get the concepts of messaging and framing this year, they never will.  When Dems react to tea partiers, and when Dems react to Repubs, they lose by allowing someone else to define and frame the message.  

    Why don’t Dems get this?  Is there anyone in Dem leadership or with a prominent Dem campaign that gets this?  Your job is not to react to someone else’s message – your job is to define issues, frame issues and succeed in messaging.  If we don’t do this, and do it well, we will look weak, and appearance could become reality in November.

  9. The Democratic Party is going to experience a bloodbath in November.

    The Democratic Party is going to experience a bloodbath in November.

    The Democratic Party is going to experience a bloodbath in November.

    This is the greatest thing ever front paged at Colorado Pols. Thank you.

  10. I am a Democrat, and I, along with many other Democrats I know believe the Democratic party is out of touch with voters with their mantra of “Comprehensive Immigration Reform”.  Independents and Republicans are even more convinced that the Democratic party cares only about cheap labor interests and illegal immigrants, instead of the interests of American citizens.

    This country has around 20% unemployment, yet the Democrats want to give amnesty to illegal immigrants, and continue to import 125,000 legal workers each month to compete with the unemployed.  This is insanity and an increasing number of Americans are fed up with it.

    Democrats can continue to marginalize these feelings and label anyone who wants to enforce immigration laws or who wants less immigration as xenophobic, racist, nativist, yada yada yada.

    While this may make some people feel better, all this does is make make many people more likely to sit out this election or support Republicans.

    There has been a concerned effort for 30 years not to enforce immigration laws, by both Republican and Democratic administrations.  It just so happens that the Democrats are in charge now and will take the brunt of the blame for voter’s anger over lack of enforcement of immigration laws and the impact on American workers.

    If the Democrats want to win some votes, I would suggest they focus on immigration enforcement by requiring all employers to utilize the E-verify system and dump any ideas of an amnesty.  Attrition by enforcement is the only real answer to illegal immigration.  

    In addition, we need to start a dialog on how much legal immigration to allow, as mass legal immigration is responsible for most of the US population growth – projected to increase from 310 million to 460 million people by 2050.

     

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