Caucus Prediction Time: Republicans

This is a must win for Buck

If he doesn't have a solid lead over Norton, then he's toast (which is too bad).

Wiens already is toast. But he could help Norton by siphoning just enough votes from Buck to kill his chances.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

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by: DavidThi808 @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 01:01:41 AM UTC

Wiens already is toast.

Oh, David, you say that so authoritatively. Want to make a bet?

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by: RedGreen @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 01:08:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Which part of you betting him on?

I only ask because I may want a piece of the action.

"I wouldn't characterize caloric intake as "professional development." c rork

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by: Middle of the Road @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 01:19:35 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dear God.

I need to start proofreading before I post.

Try this again--which part of his comment are you betting him on?

"I wouldn't characterize caloric intake as "professional development." c rork

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by: Middle of the Road @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 01:20:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I had to read that a couple of times

to make sure what I read was what you wrote!

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by: cologeek @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 02:55:34 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

the subject line

of my post

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by: RedGreen @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 03:03:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Watch for yourself

They're debating right now.  

http://apps.facebook.com/color...

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by: atrayutom @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 03:10:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

No thanks.

But knock yourself out. And thanks for the link, too.

"I wouldn't characterize caloric intake as "professional development." c rork

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by: Middle of the Road @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 03:58:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sure

If Wiens gets over 5% I'll pay you a quarter (the most I ever bet) at the next Pols meetup.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

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by: DavidThi808 @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 03:39:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's not the bet

He's not "toast," his performance at caucus matters not a bit. If he does OK, then that's a pleasant surprise. If not, Buck will have taken Norton down a notch and Wiens will emerge as the conservative alternative who can afford to go the distance. It'll be a hard-fought primary between those two this summer.

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by: RedGreen @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 04:39:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sorry RG, but I have to agree with David.

Most Republican primary voters drop their jaw a bit, cock their head to the side, and manage a weak "wu-huh?" when you mention Tom Wiens' name.  Nobody knows who he is, and he has less than nothing in terms of an active base.

If Buck loses the straw poll at the caucuses next week by any significant margin, he can forget about his own future in this race.  Whichever way it works out, hopefully we see some dropouts in the CD-4, CD-7, Senate, and Treasurer races.  We're just wasting a lot of time and money to pick a handful of relatively inevitable candidates.  I hope Dan Maes takes the Gov. race to the state convention, no matter how he polls next Tuesday.

Health care "reform" will die in the Senate, and for their efforts, Democrats will be widely thrown out of office in 2010.  Don't say I didn't warn you.

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by: BoulderRepublican @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 06:59:28 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

no. caucus really means nothing

everything will be decided on the floor. Ken still has a chance if he doesn't win the actual straw poll

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by: A-bob @ Fri Mar 12, 2010 at 04:13:30 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rank order prediction.

I see Norton's support as slipping among the faithful who attend rubber-chicken dinners and debates, and Buck and Wiens gaining.

My prediction is the order will be:
Top tier
1. Buck     (likely close to Norton)
2. Norton   (likely close to Norton)
3. Wiens
Second tier
4. Tidwell
5. Barton   (me)
Third tier
6. Greenheck (likely under 1%)
7. Martinez  (likely under 1%)
Given that Kennedy (who had the nicest personality in the race) is already gone.

From his debate performance, Wiens will get much more than 5%, doing much better than "toast" and will surprise many as he burst into the top tier.

Tidwell will likely do better than me, which makes sense since he's outspent me by a factor of 20 or more.  I think he would do better if he spoke more about WHERE he got his business experience.

I'm wondering if I'll show well enough to garner the contributions needed to buy some radio ad time, pay for targeted ads to State and County Assembly delegates, and really get going....

It is unfortunate that electability is all about money.  I lost my shirt when Intel fell from 75 to 15 nearly overnight in 2000, and am still nowhere near a million.  

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by: stevie b @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 21:20:10 PM UTC

Dear God

I certainly hope Norton is close to Norton in the outcome!  Otherwise, you're going to have to say something to the caucus vote counters...

"We're below sharks and contract killers." -- Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.), speaking on Congress's 9% approval rating

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by: Phoenix Rising @ Thu Mar 11, 2010 at 00:05:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

You put yourself 5th?

I mean that's good that you're realistic, but you could have at least put yourself above Clive Tweedwheel.

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by: redstateblues @ Thu Mar 11, 2010 at 00:12:04 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Tidwell's got higher name ID

among the faithful. Even if much of it is joke name ID.

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by: RedGreen @ Thu Mar 11, 2010 at 00:14:28 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

But maybe they're just confusing him

with all of the other Tidwells. There are so many.

And don't sell Stevie B short. Some GOP caucus goers will likely confuse him with the late musical theater actor Steve Barton, who played the phantom in the original Broadway run of Phantom of the Opera. Or some of the faithful who forget their reading glasses and hearing aids might think they're voting for hall of fame pitcher Steve Carlton.

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by: redstateblues @ Thu Mar 11, 2010 at 00:22:38 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That would be a factor

if Republicans checked off names on a ballot, but they won't. They'll have to write the name of their favorites on a blank slip of paper. And "oh, what's the name of that fifth guy, the one who's not Buck, Norton or Tidwell, or that rancher dude" won't count.

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by: RedGreen @ Thu Mar 11, 2010 at 00:37:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Steve is trying to lower expectations for himself and Norton

Steve really thinks Norton will be 1, Buck 2, Barton 3, Tidwell 4 and Wiens 5.

I just feel it in my bones.

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by: Another skeptic @ Thu Mar 11, 2010 at 04:01:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think Wiens will lose to Tidwell

he is only trying in Douglous and it isn't wrapped up for him

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by: A-bob @ Fri Mar 12, 2010 at 04:15:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]