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March 10, 2010 01:54 AM UTC

Caucus Prediction Time: Republicans

  • 20 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

It’s time to cast those votes on the caucus process. Click below to vote, and remember: As always, we want to know your best educated guess.

Since the caucus process will last for a few months, predicting a winner will be tough to do. How much does it hurt Jane Norton if she doesn’t do well at the caucus? Does a poor performance basically end Ken Buck’s campaign? What about Tom Wiens?

So vote below, and then offer your comments on what the caucus process means for the candidates. We’ll offer our opinion later in the week.

Who Has the Most to Lose at Next Tuesday's Caucus?

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Comments

20 thoughts on “Caucus Prediction Time: Republicans

  1. If he doesn’t have a solid lead over Norton, then he’s toast (which is too bad).

    Wiens already is toast. But he could help Norton by siphoning just enough votes from Buck to kill his chances.

        1. He’s not “toast,” his performance at caucus matters not a bit. If he does OK, then that’s a pleasant surprise. If not, Buck will have taken Norton down a notch and Wiens will emerge as the conservative alternative who can afford to go the distance. It’ll be a hard-fought primary between those two this summer.

          1. Most Republican primary voters drop their jaw a bit, cock their head to the side, and manage a weak “wu-huh?” when you mention Tom Wiens’ name.  Nobody knows who he is, and he has less than nothing in terms of an active base.

            If Buck loses the straw poll at the caucuses next week by any significant margin, he can forget about his own future in this race.  Whichever way it works out, hopefully we see some dropouts in the CD-4, CD-7, Senate, and Treasurer races.  We’re just wasting a lot of time and money to pick a handful of relatively inevitable candidates.  I hope Dan Maes takes the Gov. race to the state convention, no matter how he polls next Tuesday.

  2. I see Norton’s support as slipping among the faithful who attend rubber-chicken dinners and debates, and Buck and Wiens gaining.

    My prediction is the order will be:

    Top tier

    1. Buck     (likely close to Norton)

    2. Norton   (likely close to Norton)

    3. Wiens

    Second tier

    4. Tidwell

    5. Barton   (me)

    Third tier

    6. Greenheck (likely under 1%)

    7. Martinez  (likely under 1%)

    Given that Kennedy (who had the nicest personality in the race) is already gone.

    From his debate performance, Wiens will get much more than 5%, doing much better than “toast” and will surprise many as he burst into the top tier.

    Tidwell will likely do better than me, which makes sense since he’s outspent me by a factor of 20 or more.  I think he would do better if he spoke more about WHERE he got his business experience.

    I’m wondering if I’ll show well enough to garner the contributions needed to buy some radio ad time, pay for targeted ads to State and County Assembly delegates, and really get going….

    It is unfortunate that electability is all about money.  I lost my shirt when Intel fell from 75 to 15 nearly overnight in 2000, and am still nowhere near a million.  

        1. with all of the other Tidwells. There are so many.

          And don’t sell Stevie B short. Some GOP caucus goers will likely confuse him with the late musical theater actor Steve Barton, who played the phantom in the original Broadway run of Phantom of the Opera. Or some of the faithful who forget their reading glasses and hearing aids might think they’re voting for hall of fame pitcher Steve Carlton.

          1. if Republicans checked off names on a ballot, but they won’t. They’ll have to write the name of their favorites on a blank slip of paper. And “oh, what’s the name of that fifth guy, the one who’s not Buck, Norton or Tidwell, or that rancher dude” won’t count.

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