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Caucus Prediction Time: Democrats

by: Colorado Pols

Tue Mar 09, 2010 at 15:51:44 PM MST


It's time to cast those votes on the caucus process. Click below to vote, and remember: As always, we want to know your best educated guess.

For example, can Sen. Michael Bennet still be considered a "winner" after Tuesday even if it looks like Andrew Romanoff got more pledged support? You could say yes, considering that the caucus is supposed to be Romanoff's real base; but you could also say no, arguing that an incumbent Senator should not lose in a caucus process.

So vote below, and then offer your comments on what the caucus process means for the candidates. We'll offer our opinion later in the week.
Colorado Pols :: Caucus Prediction Time: Democrats
Poll
Who Has the Most to Lose at Next Tuesday's Caucus?
Andrew Romanoff
Michael Bennet

Results

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Caucus Prediction Time: Democrats | 44 comments
It's a no-win for Bennet
If he wins it was expected.

If he loses then he is supposedly dead meat.

Both will make it to the ballot and let the better Dem. win.

Substitute the name "Romanoff"
and you could say the exact same thing.

[ Parent ]
Dead meat?
You're giving too much credit to the caucus. The caucus is important for different reasons on different levels, depending on the candidate. We'll outline that more later this week. Winning and losing are measured differently by each candidate -- on both sides of the aisle.
[ Parent ]
It's conceivable
though hardly in the realm of possibility, that Bennet could lose so badly it starts a stampede away from his political corpse. If he scores below 15% in the straw poll, say. But no one thinks that will happen.

Bennet doesn't have to actually win the poll to win the night. If Romanoff doesn't surpass 40 percent, there's going to be some serious reassessing going on at the campaign.

The way Dem rules work, each candidate is likely to wind up with about the same number of delegates, even if their strength in the poll varies a lot more than that. I predict the straw poll will be 55-45 Romanoff-Bennet, but could be within 10 points of that either way. None of those outcomes is a clear victory or defeat for either candidate.

[ Parent ]
What about uncommitteds?
n/t

Buck Stops Here.
[ Parent ]
There won't be many
Factor out the counties that always send uncommitteds, and you'll probably have 5 percent. So adjust the R-B numbers accordingly.  
[ Parent ]
Sorry I didn't snark my deadmeat comment
It was meant to mock the inevitable spin by both sides.

I like them both and think it is good for the state party to have them get after it.

Yeah primaries.

[ Parent ]
Definitely a confusing post
The entire thing is written as if it's going to ask who we think is going to win the caucus, even down to "we want to know your best educated guess -- not just what you want to happen"... and then the question is an unrelated "Who has the most to lose"?

Honestly, I voted for the person I think will win before I noticed that the poll question was a bit of (unintentional?) bait and switch.

"... politics has been divided between two types of people: those who want more people to vote, and those who want fewer people to vote."
- Sen. Kerry

Unintentional
We'll change the language in the post. We re-worded the poll because as we wrote the post, we realized that there would really be no way to gauge who wins or loses after Tuesday.
[ Parent ]
I think Bennet will win
And I think if he does, even if by 1 vote, then Romanoff is finished. Because Romanoff is expected to do best in the caucus, less well at the convention, and less well than that in the vote. If he loses where he has his strongest advantage - game over.

Learn all about the Colorado Amendments - a "fair and balanced" resource.
Bennet Should Win
A sitting U.S. Senator should win the caucus of his own Party. Period.

If he fails to do as well as David has predicted, there's going to be a lot of questions asked among his supporters in DC.  They've been told, point blank, Romanoff is a mere annoyance.  I think the campaign has started to back away from that of late in terms of building the expectations game, but the reality is this: a sitting U.S. Senator should have the support of the Party faithful after a year.

Based on the language of this post, it looks like Pols is going to tell us over this next week and a half how unimportant this nomination process is in Colorado, and how the caucus results are totally meaningless.  But the reality is this: Bennet needs to at least pull a win here to show he has the ground game in addition to the air war he can put up with the money.

[ Parent ]
Sound like you don't have much confidence in Andrew
If the "people's choice" -- who was touting his endorsements among county chairs, personally knows most of the caucuser crowd after working the dinner circuit for 10 years, and has been waging his Grassroots Anger In A Box campaign in the mold of Mike Miles -- can't pull off a caucus win, then he's done.  
[ Parent ]
People in DC take the challenge seriously
The President wouldn't have come if they didn't.

In many ways Speaker Romanoff is the incumbent, as he has a cadre of state house reps from all over the state, and has been known for 16 years.

Sen Bennet simply needs to make the ballot.
The air war will then take over.

I expect it to be closer than people think.

Ken Buck: a man of Mr. Rove and Dick Cheney. The road forward does not use reverse.

[ Parent ]
We've ALWAYS said the same thing about the caucus system
In big races, for either party, it's largely irrelevant. It matters a little bit in smaller races if it can weed out some candidates from a large field, but otherwise the results don't mean diddly. The Miles-Salazar race in 2004 proved that once and for all.
[ Parent ]
Yep.
Agree.
[ Parent ]
that's what I've read
and I agree.
[ Parent ]
If I said that, I would have no credibility.
It is exactly why I told Andrew to his face on labor day weekend that I respect him, I admire him, and I think the world of him, and in any other race, I would volunteer for him every waking moment... but he is nuts to run against a strong incumbent with ability to raise money.

Does anyone remember my post of long ago called, "I can't watch this train wreck"?

Buck Stops Here.

Hmm
Well I would imagine it would be quite difficult to raise money when the entire party leadership is against him. Including the President himself. That horrid display last month that was nothing more than Washingtons attempt to squash someone they consider as irritating as a bug. That is why he needs to show strong support at Caucus, if he doesn't he is completly finished.

I will be there supporting Andrew. But I have a bit of a thing for the underdog. Andrew has an uphill battle no matter what happens on the 16th, but I will be there to help him. If the party is so afraid of Andrew that they need the President to come in, he must be the real deal.  

Congratulations on your Primary Win President Obama. I sincerely hope for all of us that you will be able to win a midterm election in a red state this year as well.

[ Parent ]
Hmm
I predict we'll have a caucus. And then assemblies.

Sometime in July many of us will wonder why we go through all that just to get to a voting primary that really counts.

Honestly?
I think the purpose of caucuses is to let us all yak with people who feel like we do and to find volunteers for the upcoming campaigns.  It doesn't much matter how the voting goes,
[ Parent ]
Rah, Rah, Go Us
A reasonable assessment.  

I tend to think of the caucus as a pep rally for something I care about, unlike the pep rallies in high school to support whichever sports league thingy.

Matthew

[ Parent ]
Why I Go
For me it is about sending a message that does not actually hurt the party.  It is a way for me to blow off some of my idealism so that I can happily vote for the imperfect candidate in the fall.

Matthew
[ Parent ]
I predict 45-55 and a whole lotta spin
Who gets the 45 and who gets the 55 will be entirely a factor of turnout among those who first attended caucus in 2008.

I predict Romie gets 60%+ of those historically more active caucus goers like the ones who went to caucus in 2006 or 2004. That's a group of about 10-12k voters.

Conversely, I predict Bennet gets 65%+ of those first turned on to the caucus fun by Obama. That's a potential group of 80-100k voters but going to be work to get them out if your name is not Obama. OFA has hundreds of people from around the country calling for Bennet so they could get some decent numbers.

Romie's team and supporters will spin that the "activists" who caucused for him and spin that anything above 30% is a success being up against a guy with 10x the money and the entire Democratic apparatus backing their opponent (DSCC, OFA, White House etc).

Bennet's team and supporters will spin that Romie should have gotten 60% if he's really the grassroots guy and anything less is a catastrophic blow.

CoPols will be close to Bennet's spin but as long as Romie gets 45-50% will say it's still a race but even if he gets 60% overall will say it's really about the money.

Peacemonger will post some well written diaries saying they love both but Bennet can only win. It will be mostly nice but they'll stand by their man no matter what.

Otool will call somebody a clown. May be totally unprovoked or just to stir the pot or given some of the recent rantings could be over somebody's split personality about whether Romie is the devil or a nice guy who just shouldn't run.

Ray will get wind that somebody said Romie claims to talk to God and is the King of Colorado. He'll demand an apology from Romie or threaten a letter from St. Peter and all of Colorado. Eventually Danny and Peacemonger will point out that Romie said he talked at a church where people pray to God and that he has a supporter who drinks beer at Three Kings Tavern. Ray will not believe it and will demand the Justice Dept investigate.  

I think it's time the other 60% stand up and start wielding their power within both parties.  I'm convinced we have more in common and more common sense than the 20% of the loons on the left and whackos on the right who run the show now.

ROTFLMAO
Your final 3 paras are superb :)

Learn all about the Colorado Amendments - a "fair and balanced" resource.
[ Parent ]
Thanks David
Ya know, you gotta bring a little levity some times and lately it's gotten out of control to the point that I have to check in just to get a chuckle during an otherwise all too serious day.

I think it's time the other 60% stand up and start wielding their power within both parties.  I'm convinced we have more in common and more common sense than the 20% of the loons on the left and whackos on the right who run the show now.
[ Parent ]
A little over the top
I'm actually a moderate. I'm passionate about the SPLC. This is true. I've had a relationship with them for years.

My initial assesment a couple of months ago was cuacus 45-55 for Romanoff.  I believe the primary will be the reverse.

I'm not opposed to saying that I'm wrong, though.  

Ken Buck: a man of Mr. Rove and Dick Cheney. The road forward does not use reverse.

[ Parent ]
Can't be right , though
Romanoff is Jewish,
I'm a just a Scotch-Irish Jew, culturally Black Vato.  

The religion is Jewish for us both, though, and  I think that the Justice Department will only investigate medical marijuana dispensaries because the evil weed leads to gateways of painlessness.  

Ken Buck: a man of Mr. Rove and Dick Cheney. The road forward does not use reverse.

[ Parent ]
And Republicans will immediately claim
that both are losers because they didn't renounce churches who use the term "social justice" and embrace big business.

And a fun time will be had by all.

[ Parent ]
I realize this is tongue in cheek...
... but is about as accurate as it gets.  RMM, you did a great job nailing every single point of this ongoing debate on Pols.  I don't think I disagree with a word you wrote whatsoever.
[ Parent ]
I agree it is funny
But mostly because of some made up stuff and exaggeration. Recognizing that can be a good formula for comedy, it's not quite true.

CoPols ... will say it's really about the money.
CoPols nor anyone else has ever said the candidate with the most money wins and it's all about money as RMM (and AR and others) have attributed. Rather, the claim has been it's about having an adequate amount of money to budget for the general.

Peacemonger will post some well written diaries ...but they'll stand by their man no matter what.

Maybe- but PM started 2009 supporting AR, ie PM is persuadable.

... given some of the recent rantings could be over somebody's split personality about whether Romie is the devil or a nice guy who just shouldn't run.

Why the false choice- couldn't someone think AR should drop out and that he's a nice guy?

Ray is correct that AR campaign supporters have claimed that Romanoff is and or was a lawyer - two people said it to me.  I cannot confirm whether AR has ever said that, but people in the campaign have.  So for RMM to go off like Ray is just pulling an Emily Litella is just wrong - even though it is funny.  


"Why do Republicans get to be stupid and win while whenever we're stupid, we're just stupid?"  sufimarie Feb 2010

[ Parent ]
Thanks for the laugh!
I guess I don't need to blog anymore.  You can do it for all of us.
; )

Buck Stops Here.
You forgot one, MMR.
Steve Harvey will post something using a lot of big words and referencing Shakespeare.

Buck Stops Here.
Ah! The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune!
You Contra-antidisestablishmentarian, you!

We're all in this story together: Let's make sure that we write it well.
http://www.steveharveyforcolor...
[ Parent ]
Again,
I have no idea what Steve Harvey is saying... but he is lovable.

Buck Stops Here.
[ Parent ]
Plrtpsh?
Zlsjhfooit. sljijoo llsioho, lsjmvioe!

We're all in this story together: Let's make sure that we write it well.
http://www.steveharveyforcolor...
[ Parent ]
Basically, Bennet can survive
a second-place showing and win a primary from the second-line, as both Dottie Lamm and Ken Salazar did.  But I think Romanoff needs top line to mount a serious challenge to an incumbent.  Second line won't be fatal to either man, but it would hurt Romanoff a lot more than Bennet, especially given AR's self-inflicted wounds in the fund-raising department.
Contacts
I have received no less than 9 calls and 6 e-mails from Bennet campaign regarding the caucus vs. 4 e-mails and 0 calls from Romanoff camp. Reminds me of the Obama vs Clinton efforts before the 2008 caucus. If Romanoff gets above 30% I will be surprised.
Ah, is that the latest spin from your candidate's campaign?
Please, cut the crap. You're not very good at spin so find another hobby.

Could you possibly move the goal posts one more time before caucus?

"The only way you could be worse is if you were Wade Norris." Ralphie

[ Parent ]
Wrong side of the bed this morning?
Or extremely wry snark?

Sounds like silverandblue is saying Romanoff will have trouble making the ballot threshold. I doubt that's going to happen -- he's got a built-in base throughout the state -- but it didn't read like the usual expectations spin to me. I could be wrong.

[ Parent ]
Nope. I slept great. Thanks for asking. And you?
You obviously haven't read any other comments in the last 6 months from the Romanoff admirer silverandblue. The wry snark award goes to him, not me.


"The only way you could be worse is if you were Wade Norris." Ralphie
[ Parent ]
Truthfully I am starting to feel stalked by Sen. Bennet's campaign
Stop calling me! I don't feel like going out with you or the Speaker.

I kid, I kid, but I have gotten a lot more contacts from Bennet.  I can't recall a single call from the Speaker's team.

[ Parent ]
I've gotten calls from both
They'd probably stop calling if you told them you were a die-hard Norton supporter...

"I have come to the conclusion that the making of laws is like the making of sausages-the less you know about the process the more you respect the result."  -- Anonymous IL State Rep. circa 1878
[ Parent ]
The ONLY reason they don't call me anymore
is because I finally caved in and became a volunteer. I'm not advising this as the best way to go to get off of someone's phone list--seems to be a whole lot more work. ;)

"The only way you could be worse is if you were Wade Norris." Ralphie
[ Parent ]
I think Romanoff will do well
and even better at the convention. Many local dems are going for him and have a lot of control over the local caucuses
Caucus Prediction Time: Democrats | 44 comments
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