Magellan Poll: Polis Leads Democratic Field by 13 Points

Cary Kennedy (L) trails Jared Polis by a significant margin according to a new poll.

The Colorado-based, Republican-leaning polling firm Magellan Strategies is out with numbers in the Democratic race for Governor — the first public numbers for the Democratic Primary that we’ve seen in months.

According to MagellanJared Polis has a solid lead over his three Democratic opponents almost across-the-board, with an overall advantage of 13 points:

Our latest survey of likely Democratic primary voters in Colorado finds Congressman Jared Polis opening up a 13-point lead over his closest opponent, former State Treasurer Cary Kennedy, 31% to 18% respectively. Former State Senator Mike Johnston has 9% support, Lt. Governor Donna Lynne has 3% support and 39% of voters are undecided. Since our March 20th survey, there has been no change in the order of candidate preference, and very little change in support levels for Mike Johnston, Donna Lynne and the percentage of undecided voters.

What has changed since our last survey is a 5-point decline in support for Cary Kennedy and a 4-point increase in support for Jared Polis.

Here are the breakdowns from Magellan:

Magellan Strategies, May 30-31, 2018

 

As with any poll conducted close to an election, you should take these numbers with the requisite grain(s) of salt. However, these margins are fairly consistent with what we’ve heard through the political grapevine.

It’s also worth noting that this poll was conducted at the end of May, which was before candidate advertisements started to flood the airwaves in larger numbers. Polis has since maintained a sizable advantage in the number of ads on TV, so if these numbers are accurate, the overall margins are probably holding fairly steady today.

37 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. davebarnesdavebarnes says:

    Sad.

    If Jared is governor who is going to run against Smiling Cory in 2020.

  2. ElliotFladenElliotFladen says:

    Well, this is good news!  My wife and I are likely voting libertarian if Kennedy wins so a Polis victory here means two more votes on the majority team for this site come November.

  3. UglyAmericanUglyAmerican says:

    I’m struggling with the cross-tabs. Polis lead is higher with women? Really? Not intuitive. 

    • MADCO says:

      think of it as "smart women" and it might make more sense.

      • UglyAmericanUglyAmerican says:

        I guess with Polis I think of it more as follow the money. I'm in Denver, and the D voters I've met that do not support Kennedy are backing Johnston. Admittedly a skewed sample. The only Polis supporters I know are in Boulder. I haven't met a Lynne supporter. 

        I think Cary is tanned, rested and ready and I hope she prevails. 

        • notaskinnycooknotaskinnycook says:

          I'm in Denver and I'm going with Polis, too. I've watched Cary for quite a while and she just doesn't impress me as being ready. I think the next two years will be a tough fight to rein in the overreach of Trumpism. The cannabis issue with Sessions is only the tip of it. Someone who's already worked at the federal level seems a better bet to take them on. 

    • VoyageurVoyageur says:

      All too common, ugly.  A great many women have internalized their repression and defer to men just like the Bible tells them to do.  Even someone as nominally uppity as mj backed Bernie over Hillary and Polis over Cary.

      I knew all along she would.

      • mamajama55mamajama55 says:

        Noting stale bait. Leaving it to rot.

      • Ckonola says:

        I'm a Polis voter. I've supported him since I found out he is running. He has come to Grand Junction multiple times, even once when I hosted a round-table discussion of enviornmental and women's issues. It might be interesting to note, Voyageur, that there were several young women at that event, and they all went away promising to knock on doors for him and recruit all their friends to support him. And guess what? They have done just that. And they are bright, articulate, educated young women. I'm 70, and I'm supporting Polis. These young women were 30-somethings (is that still a thing?) and they are busy spreading the word. I totally reject your analysis of the type of woman who would support Polis over Kennedy. 

         

        • VoyageurVoyageur says:

          I know a lot of bright educated women too, including my wife, daughter and granddaughter.  The difference is they aren't willing to spend all their lives in the pep club.

          By my count, Colorado has had about 57 gubernatorial elections.  Every one put a man in the office.

          You are cool with that.  And pretty angry with anybody who even dares to sugge st there is anything wrong with putting half the state in pep club uniforms.

          Well, more than half of white women voted for Trump.  What could possibly go wrong with vetoing women for executive office?

          Yes, a great many women have internalized the repressive message in the Bible that they should blindly defer to men.  It's a shame.

      • mamajama55mamajama55 says:

        Your "mansplaining" is deeply offensive. Your attempt to psychologically analyze and critique me, or any female Polis voter, is sexist and arrogant . Or do you go about telling male Polis voters that they hate women? I haven't noticed you doing that….you seem to reserve your ire and charges of "raging" and being "incoherent" only for female polsters. I wonder why that could be. Is female disagreement inherently threatening to you?

        Reviewing my primary ballot, I counted 3 male and 3 female candidates that I voted for. And I’m glad I have that opportunity. They’re all good candidates, and I voted for each on her / his merits.

        Perhaps the reverse is true – that male voters who support female candidates somehow hate their manhood? I know some right wing zealots who'd agree with that position.

        No…..the reality is that I, and most progressive women, are intelligent beings who know how to research and how to make up their minds about candidates based on the facts.  Just like men do.

        We are not somehow damaged and self-hating if we do not automatically vote for a female candidate.

        I've been on this forum for five years, and have seen you, V, post some really vile and demeaning things to all kinds of people. Lately, it seems I'm your favorite target, for reasons only you know.

        During those five years, I have never seen you apologize to anyone, nor admit any wrongdoing. Like Trump, you seem to believe that "If I'm ever wrong, I might apologize."  So I don't expect it now.  What I expect is more insults, more doubling down, more stupid ass gaslighting and distraction.

        But if you take one thing away from all this, remember – women have minds, and we make them up independently, whether you like the results…or not.

         

        • VoyageurVoyageur says:

          Ohh, it's always about you, and about how whoever disagrees with your party line is scum, or worse, a man! 

          But I thought we had established that RandR was the worst person in the world because he dared disagree with you.  Then it was Pseudy who was vile and awful because he disagreed with you.

          But put down the cooking sherry and face that it's not always about you.  Yes, you always find an excuse to vote for a mediocre man — bernie, polis, — over an outstanding woman when it's really a breakthrough position.  And yes, your alleged feminism is at best a tertiary concern far below warmed over marxism.

          But you know what, you are so predictable that very few care.  In the above example, you were not in my mind.  But in your colossal ego, it is unthinkable that anyone could ignore you.  So, once again, cue "Ride of the Valkyries" and ride off to war explain how no self-respecting radical feminist can ever vote for a woman on a breakthrough role.  

          I know, I know, it's a tough job.  Maybe Sarah Palin can help you out.

          • mamajama55mamajama55 says:

            Psuedo, you feeling bullied by me? V is very concerned about you. Perhaps you can set his mind at ease.

            R&R, did I write that you were the worst person in the world? Perhaps you can point to where I wrote that. V swears it's out there, and he would never exaggerate or lie to justify his tirades. 

            I thought that we had disagreed on “Jill Stein Voters” and are now done with it. I wrote a diary about it; you maintain your position. Oh well.   But do ask V – I'm sure he can find where I called you the worst person in the world, or insulted your character and intelligence, as he so often does when he disagrees with someone.

            V, you're a sexist and arrogant bully. You hide that by pretending to be the "best feminist" and advocate for women, using that to insult and demean women, (and actual feminists, like myself, Nancy Cronk, Claudette Konola) in the process.
            You insert yourself into any dialogue I’m having with anybody on here, and use it to try to build yourself up and put me down. And you refuse to see it.

            Most polsters on here are afraid that your withering scorn and bullying will be turned upon them, so they won't say anything if they disagree….they just quietly disappear. Doesn't make for a lot of good discourse on here.

            Diodegenesdemar?

            dustpuppy?

            James Dodd?

            Nancy Cronk?

            Bueller?

  4. MADCO says:

    Nah, nah, nah – all y'all said polls don't matter.

    Besides – this is obviously f'd up – ain't no way 3% of poll respondents are related to Donna Lynne

  5. RepealAndReplace says:

    She's got all the tattoo artists in CO.

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