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New Big Line

by: Colorado Pols

Mon Nov 16, 2009 at 10:45:20 AM MST


The Big Line has been updated to reflect several recent moves. Quick rundown below.
Colorado Pols :: New Big Line
GOVERNOR
The outcome of this race could very well hinge on what Tom Tancredo decides to do. If he runs, then at the very least he forces Scott McInnis much further to the right than he would want to go. All of which benefits Gov. Bill Ritter. If Tancredo is out, McInnis can stay to the middle, and Ritter is in trouble.

SENATE
This race is starting to crystallize. Jane Norton is the clear frontrunner on the GOP side, with Tom Wiens the only wild card left. Ken Buck is definitely done, and it makes sense for him to start thinking about another option (say, CD-4?)

On the Democratic side, Sen. Michael Bennet is pulling away from Andrew Romanoff already, with the latter making us wonder if he can even run a viable statewide campaign.

ATTORNEY GENERAL
At what point do Democrats just totally write off this race and concede to John Suthers? With no real challengers on the horizon, it may be sooner rather than later.

CD-3
Republican Scott Tipton is back for more after getting brained in 2006. No reason to think it won't happen again, despite Tipton's optimism to the contrary.

CD-4
We don't have the change on the Line yet, but should Ken Buck start thinking about changing from Senate to this race? With Cory Gardner looking weak, it would make sense.
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New Big Line | 62 comments
Governor race
it seems to me that Ritter needs to see an upturn in the economy.  If that happens, he's golden.  If not, I think he still has a chance but it's much more difficult.  McInnis was our US Rep, the though of him as governor drives me to distraction.
The economy is the key to 2010 in general
If it gets better by next fall, Democrats are in good shape. If not, they're not.
[ Parent ]
The wingnut mass in the base won't let McInnis go unchallenged
on that, at least, DickW is right.

"[A]ll Republicans/conservatives/tea parties have been proven wrong. Everybody knows this." BJWilson83, Republican/conservative/tea partier

"The fossil record utterly refutes evolution." BJWilson83, graduate student

[ Parent ]
Wow
Do you really think Ritter is no better than equal with McInnis at this point?  Didn't think it was quite so bad as that! Yikes!  At a recent event, get this, Romanoff was talking about how important it is to support Ritter. Guess it's really time to circle the wagons.
[ Parent ]
In terms of how they'll be presented to the voters
McInnis and Ritter are pretty similar and come from fairly similar backgrounds. All things being equal, if McInnis can outraise Ritter (which he probably will), then this could really be a toss-up.

But they are only even as of right now. If Tancredo runs, then Ritter gets a significant bump.

[ Parent ]
Underestimate and see what happens
Everyone is doing just what McInnis wants them to do. You're underestimating him, look at what he's done so far...done well in fundraising, ran off Penry, never had to debate and has kept his campaign afloat even though some people though it was killing his chances. He's overcome all of that and yet people are still doubting him, which I guess is good for him because the Democrats will never see him coming if that's the case.

The economy will be a huge thing but the chances of people getting their jobs back by election aren't looking good with the unemployment rate going up, again. I don't see it improving a whole heck of a lot in less than a year.

As for Tancredo, he doesn't have a chance...and that's only if he decides to run, which I'm willing to bet he doesn't. It's all about the attention he's getting for just saying he's thinking about it.  

[ Parent ]
Tipton at 8-1?
You're drinking the same Kool-Aid he is. You've got Scooter at 12-1, so for Tipton, something on order of 15-1, at least, is more realistic.
On the "not so big" line --
State Senator Dan Gibbs is making an announcement today at noon on the steps of the courthouse in Breckenridge.  Could see a change here.
Well...
What was it?
[ Parent ]
Running for county commissioner
and not seeking re-election to the Senate.
[ Parent ]
Probably more money in county commish.
And fewer budget cuts than at the state level.  Also, no commute to Denver.
[ Parent ]
That's a shame.
Dan is a bright young guy with a lot of promise.  He could have done well going for a national office.
[ Parent ]
Kirk Nemer
So where is Kirk on the Big Line?
Who the hell is Kirk Nemer?

[ Parent ]
Kirk Nemer
Kirk Nemer: Common sense for Colorado.

He'll make an announcement soon.  

[ Parent ]
"Common sense for Colorado"
Wow. Never heard that slogan before.
[ Parent ]
He's running for Enterprise Captain.
After you refer to his rank, use his first name not his last.
[ Parent ]
and Dan Maeze


"Why do Republicans get to be stupid and win while whenever we're stupid, we're just stupid?"  sufimarie Feb 2010
[ Parent ]
Dan has much more of a chance then whoever this guy is

[ Parent ]
What's up with the AG race?
Why hasn't anyone else step up to run for this? Are there really no qualified candidates who actually want to take the time to run? If so, that's a little embarrassing.

John Suthers is one of the strongest potential Republican candidates for higher office in the future. The Democrats should at least try give him a run for his money.

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)

Low pay, little power
A lot of people who are qualified to be AG don't want the job, for various reasons. For one thing, if you are a district attorney in Colorado, you make about $50-60k more per year than you would make as AG. Most private attorneys also make considerably more money than the $80k per year that Colorado pays its AG. Money isn't everything, but in this economy, it certainly matters.
[ Parent ]
Suthers seems to enjoy it
And he's probably going to use his multiple terms as AG as a reason voters should send him to higher office. It worked for Ken Salazar. It might not pay well, but it's a stepping off point politically.

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)
[ Parent ]
Suthers badly wanted to run for something else
But he doesn't have the juice to do so. Suthers doesn't want to be AG - it's just the only thing left. He was a Senate candidate for 5 minutes earlier this year, remember. AG is often a stepping stone, but it is the end of the line for Suthers.

[ Parent ]
I think he's still a likely candidate in the future
And a strong one. He's the only Republican that holds statewide office right now, in a time when Democrats dominate everything. Of all the Republican political figures in this state, he's probably the one with the least amount of negativity associated with one issue or another that usually plagues the GOP here.

Or it might not be in him. I just think he's probably all the Republicans have right now in terms of potential candidates who don't have a great deal of baggage.

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)

[ Parent ]
And if he waits till 2012
he can keep his job if he loses.
Kinda like Penry.

Never assume "shill" when "idiot" is available as an explanation. [h/t Ralphie]
[ Parent ]
Penry's up in 2010
 He was elected in 2006. CO Statesman got it wrong today.  Of course if Penry runs in 2010 & wins he would have a free ride in 2012 for something.  Not sure what that would be if he doesn't want to run in 3rd CD.
[ Parent ]
That's what I meant.
If Penry runs in 2010 for a new seat and loses, he's out of work. If he gets re-elected in 2010, then he can run in 2012 without risking his day job. (This assumes that re-election is a slam-dunk).

Suthers is in the same boat.  

Never assume "shill" when "idiot" is available as an explanation. [h/t Ralphie]

[ Parent ]
Run for what in 2012?
The only seats open in 2012 will be congressional seats. If John Salazar still wants the job, especially after three years on Appropriations, it's his for the asking. Lamborn probably isn't going anywhere either (if Suthers would consider that seat a step up from a statewide office). There aren't any statewide or U.S. Senate elections until 2014.
[ Parent ]
If Penry runs in 2010 for a new seat and loses, he's out of work
There's gotta be a job at Mesa State waiting for him.
[ Parent ]
Not necessarily, Queerdude
If he's not important, then President Foster will have little use for him.  He'll be just another aging ex-quarterback.

That's how it works up on North Avenue.

Best to kill them early instead of letting them possibly need food stamps.
--marilou, 2010

[ Parent ]
Romanoff?
What about Romanoff for AG?  He's a lawyer, right? He has built a small dollar network that would be better suited for down ticket statewide race with lower contribution limits than Senate, and it sets him up to run for another office later.

[ Parent ]
He hasn't passed the bar yet
According to the state constitution, a qualified AG candidate must be a licensed attorney of the Supreme Court of the state in good standing.

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)
[ Parent ]
It's our understanding
That you have to be a member of the bar in Colorado for a certain number of years before you are eligible to run (Romanoff only graduated from law school this year). But an attorney who reads/posts here probably knows better.
[ Parent ]
SoS packet on candidate requirements for AG
http://www.elections.colorado....

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)
[ Parent ]
Low pay yes, little power no.
The Colorado AG makes about half what a first year associate (free out of law school or judicial clerkship) at a top paying NYC law firm does.  So, yes, the pay sucks.

But, the AG has far more power than the SOS, or the State Treasurer, or any member of the State Board of Education or CU Regents, and also realistically has more power than most committee chairpersons in the legislature.  

Indeed, the only people who can compete with the AG in terms of state level power are the Governor himself, maybe the Governor's chief of staff, the Speaker of the State House and the State Senate President.  

The AG also realistically has more power than the U.S. Attorney for the District of Colorado (the highest ranking federal prosecutor assigned to the state), or any DA in the state.

Few private law firms in Colorado have as many Colorado attorneys as the AG's office in which the AG is equivalent to a managing partner, and no private law firm has the broad powers afforded to the AG's office that private attorneys don't share.

The AG plays a central role of all regulatory drafting, can write opinions that bind the executive branch on unresolved legal issues, has broad powers to take positions for the state on hot button constitutional and state constitutional issues (including every death penalty appeal), and gets to decide who is worth prosecuting (civilly or criminally) and who is not.  The AG can effectively make law through consent decrees with parties that have faced suit from the AG.

[ Parent ]
So when
are you announcing your candidacy?
[ Parent ]
Slater?
Thought Dan Slater had announced for AG on the Dems side.

"We got us some real vision here...and the rest of 'em are still wearing bifocals."   Butch Cassidy
Two weeks in...
He rescinded his candidacy.  

I knew a stripper named Skyler once.  --TaxCheatGeithner
[ Parent ]
He withdrew

[ Parent ]
He Already Pulled Out
Dan Slater backed out not too long after announcing.
[ Parent ]
Ritter not as weak as you say.
I know a lot of you so-called policy wonk experts are going to jump down my throat and call me naive.  Yes, I recognize Ritter has angered some in the Democratic Party and Unaffiliateds, but he most certainly is not on par with McInnis, who is a wishy washy lawyer-lobbyist that his own party doesn't even like.  Regardless of what Tancredo does, Ritter is still ahead of McInnis at this point.
McInnis 12-1, Tancredo 18-1?
Seems that's overestimating Tancredo's odds more than a bit.

Maybe you're just trying your darndest to encourage him to run?

Tom the Bomb will definitely make things lively, but he's more like a Ken Buck-ish 30-1 to actually get the GOP Gubernatorial nomination, I'd think.

Defend the 1st, 10th, 14th and 17th Amendments - and Social Security! Vote Democratic!

Not at all
Buck is dead in the water already. Tancredo at least has a national network he can draw upon.  
[ Parent ]
Sen Bennet
will continue to be in the news on a regular basis as the President's agenda goes forth. the Speaker has his work cut out for him.


Ken Buck: a man of Mr. Rove and Dick Cheney. The road forward does not use reverse.
the Governor
I belive will be in better shape than expected. The UFCW situation has turned out not to be a strike as yet.  

Ken Buck: a man of Mr. Rove and Dick Cheney. The road forward does not use reverse.
AG?
How about Beth McCann? Her experience includes:
* State Representative on Judiciary Committee.
* Deputy Attorney General in charge of the Civil Litigation and Employment Law Section of the Colorado Attorney General's Office, supervising 33 attorneys, 11 paralegals, and 7 administrative assistants.
* Law clerk for now-deceased U.S. District Court Judge Sherman G. Finesilver.
* [A]lmost eight years as Deputy and then Chief Deputy District Attorney in Denver, prosecuting hundreds of cases, including child abuse and murder.
* [P]rivate practice for seven years with the Denver law firm of Cooper & Kelley, P.C., earning a partnership in that firm in 1985.
* In 1991, Mayor Wellington Webb asked McCann to be his first Denver Manager of Safety. She managed one of the largest agencies in Denver city government, including the Denver Police, Fire, Sheriff's Departments with a budget of $170 million and a staff of almost 3,000 employees.

If she loses, Ritter could put her in charge of the Department of Corrections.

What about Franklin D. Azar (TV ad buying plaintiff's attorney)?

What about Mitch Morrisey, who also has the virtue of being a moderate by Denver standards?

Has Terrance Carroll been an attorney long enough to be eligible?  He's been speaker of the House, isn't running for anything else, he's termed, and even if he doesn't win, he's spent a good chunk of time building name recognition.


Frank Azar
The Strong Arm? Surely you're joking.

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)
[ Parent ]
The Strong Arm
I thought he was a Republican. Or at least donates to a lot of them.
[ Parent ]
Primary!

[ Parent ]
he supported Both Ways in '06
then again, the trial lawyers association would love to see him get elected
[ Parent ]
Maybe he just watches too much late night TV

[ Parent ]
he could self-finance his campaign

[ Parent ]
NAME ID?
I have no idea who I'd vote for in a primary between Strong Arm, Rocky (Auto) and Dealin Doug....

...I'd probably go with Rocky...

TABOR4LIFE

[ Parent ]
Jesse Ventura became Governor of Minnesota
the land of shy Lutherans, based on his experience as a pro-wrestler.

Mayor Bloomberg, ran as a Republican in New York City, despite the fact that he is probably one of the most liberal elected Republicans in the nation, and despite the fact that it is generally far easier to be elected as a Democrat.

Surely, it would be less remarkable if a prominent trial lawyer who lightly supervises lots of other trial lawyers mostly representing those who are down on their luck ran for a post that involves as a key job requirement supervision of lots of lightly supervised trial lawyers representing those who are often down on their luck, even if he often contributes money to Republicans.

Likely, no.  Possible, yes.  When conventional wisdom fails to produce a result, you broaden the realm of possibilities.  I would be more shocked if the Democrats nominated no one.

[ Parent ]
Jesse Ventura
was a real live celebrity. Azar is a  sweaty looking ambulance chaser whose name rec comes from cheesy TV ads. Azar is no Jesse Ventura and Ventura was an aberration those shy Lutherans would probably rather forget.  
[ Parent ]
Alas, in the AG race candidates have to be
lawyers with five years of experience which rules out the real fun candidates.
[ Parent ]
Is five years experience
What qualifies as "good standing" for a lawyer by statute definition?
[ Parent ]
Don't think that is true
While DAs must be attorneys for 5 years, I don't think the same requirement applies for AG.
[ Parent ]
The statute
Says you must "be an attorney in good standing" with the state in order to run for AG. What does "good standing" mean?
[ Parent ]
There is no 5-year requirement.
and "good standing" has nothing to do with the number of years one has been licensed.  So sayeth my bitchy lawyer "friends."
[ Parent ]
dang it
I meant my earlier comment to respond to youzzz.  There is no 5-year requirement for AG, gd.
[ Parent ]
"prominent"?
Don't you mean "infamous"?
[ Parent ]
New Big Line | 62 comments
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