Pols Poll 2: Governor (Republicans)

But I still think lil Josh

wins the Western Slope, if he survives that long...

"There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney in a moment of clarity

"I'm Mitt Romney and yes, Wolf, that's also my first name," Willard Mitt Romney demonstrating 'policy flexibility.'  

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by: ClubTwitty @ Thu Oct 29, 2009 at 14:12:35 PM UTC

Josh is pushing all the right buttons.

He will bring out the extremists, who tend to run the GOP nomination and primary process. And frankly, the extremists don't care about his policy flip-flops, as long as he is "right" on their pet social issues. As a perceived moderate, McInnis won't fare well in the primary, although he probably would be the strongest Republican candidate to challenge Ritter.  

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by: OneEyedOwl @ Thu Oct 29, 2009 at 15:29:25 PM UTC

Penry

The storyline that McInnis is chicken is starting to resonate. If it grows for another month like this McInnis, even with more money, will suddenly find himself dropping in the polls.

I also think Penry is stronger in the general. All of us Dems look at them and say McInnis is less bad so of course he's stronger. But the election is decided but high turnout of the base (Penry definitely gets that) and appealing to the true swing voters. Those swing voters are not closet Dems.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

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by: DavidThi808 @ Thu Oct 29, 2009 at 15:43:42 PM UTC

Those swing voters are not closet Dems

Nor are they closet Republicans. They're non-ideological pragmatists, and McInnis is ideally suited to appeal to them; Penry isn't.

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by: RedGreen @ Thu Oct 29, 2009 at 17:03:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agree David, its Penry

As we discussed a few days ago http://coloradopols.com/showCo... the media is questioning the Congressman's relevence, commitment, positions.  Oh it might be worded as "where's the debate", but its masking so many other issues.

The Congressmans "it's my time" principle probably doesn't cut it with Dean Singleton nor will it compel Colorado voters.

Continuing McTrends.  It's been laziness, odd phone calls discussing 527s, the Silverman freakout, lacking situational awareness and the complete lack of a compelling message back to back and week after week.

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by: Libertad @ Thu Oct 29, 2009 at 17:10:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

But how long can this story really last?

Sure, this is a bad news day for McInnis, but one or two bad days like this is well worth not awarding Penry bigger press later in debates. And it's not like Penry can debate without McInnis, because if he shows up on a stage with just Dan Maes, then he looks like he has more in common with Maes than McInnis -- which is absolutely not the image he needs.

McInnis will get a few bad stories and editorials for not debating, but the media can't really harp on this story because the majority of the public doesn't care -- it's not a big enough story to extend for weeks, let alone months.

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by: Colorado Pols @ Thu Oct 29, 2009 at 19:05:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Here at Colorado Pols

We've always been about political commentary and strategy. And from where we're sitting, McInnis' strategy still makes a lot of sense.

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by: Colorado Pols @ Thu Oct 29, 2009 at 19:06:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If I recall, Pols also said the Titanic's strategy

"made a lot of sense."
And compared to McInnis' "I'm too chicken to debate but vote for me anyway" strategy, the Titanic's "We ain't afraid of no icebergs" strategy did make sense.
I'm a registered Republican who knows both men and have favored McInnis.  But the soundings I've made among R base voters indicate they don't like the cowardly lion approach.    

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by: PoliceSquad @ Thu Oct 29, 2009 at 19:21:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You've made our point exactly

Republican base voters may not like this, but they make up less than 10% of the overall primary voters. The "base" voters -- the people who will go to the caucus -- will not decide the outcome of this race.

Despite what insider "base" voters like to think, primary battles don't involve them. Most "base" voters will make up their minds early and remain unmovable. The overwhelming majority of primary voters are people who don't pay close attention to politics and will vote rather blindly in August.

McInnis is polling far ahead, while Penry has very low ID numbers, and at this point there's no reason to help boost his opponents' name ID. If McInnis angers "base" voters in the process, so what? As long as he maintains a lead with the other 90% of the voters who will actually decide the outcome, we're fairly sure he'll take that trade off.

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by: Colorado Pols @ Thu Oct 29, 2009 at 19:42:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

sure, you got the math on your side and all

but don't you want a triangulated R debate?

Even if there is no chicken suit, it could be great.

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by: MADCO @ Thu Oct 29, 2009 at 22:32:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes but...

...the world's different now (ask JFG if the rules have changed). What can happen is a story is built on the web about a candidate and come election time it's been locked in to most people's minds.

Before Clinton we did not have the permanent campaign. He started his campaign for re-election the day after he was elected and had a major advantage from it.

I don't know how well Penry is using the net. And I don't know how much it will matter in 10 months. But it could be that when McInnis thinks the campaign is really starting - that it's already over.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

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by: DavidThi808 @ Fri Oct 30, 2009 at 00:02:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

JFG?

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by: MADCO @ Fri Oct 30, 2009 at 04:10:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Joan Fitz-Gerald

She ran a 1998 campaign against Jared Polis. He ran a 2008 campaign. I don't think Joan ever realized that she could lose, much less that she was losing.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

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by: DavidThi808 @ Fri Oct 30, 2009 at 04:40:34 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Pretty sure they had TV ads in 1998 too David

It wasn't solely the money, but it also wasn't solely the new media that won it for Polis. He was on TV more than any other candidate running that year except for maybe Barack Obama.

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by: redstateblues @ Fri Oct 30, 2009 at 14:09:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

but if the point is

that campaigns are different now than when McInnis ran before, DT8 is right.  I don't know Joan Fitzgerald and didn't follow the campaigns.   I do know the Polis campaign did a really good job framing the campaign - early and often.

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by: MADCO @ Fri Oct 30, 2009 at 14:36:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good Point!

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by: crazypoliticians @ Thu Oct 29, 2009 at 21:26:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think the good money's on Scott

But if it's a depressed-turnout GOP primary, then Penry has a chance to even the odds between now and the summer. But with both a competitive governor and senate Republican primary, I don't think that's going to happen.  

"At times one remains faithful to a cause only because its opponents do not cease to be insipid." - Nietzsche  

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by: twas brillig @ Thu Oct 29, 2009 at 15:54:06 PM UTC

Schaffer try'd this same tactic

he ran hard to the right against coors and got beat soundly. I think McInnis wins this in a walk. Bob Schaffer at least had name ID.

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by: Retired @ Thu Oct 29, 2009 at 22:54:25 PM UTC

McInnis

McInnis has the contacts and the fundraising ability that Penry lacks.  While the conservative activists may support Penry, McInnis will have the resources to launch a media blitz to win the hearts and minds of the typical Republican primary voters.

More fundamentally, Penry comes across as too young to serve as Colorado's Chief Executive -- not that McInnis is Mr. Gravitas himself.

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by: ColoDem @ Fri Oct 30, 2009 at 19:05:56 PM UTC

Mr. Gravitas

You don't think the scraggly mustache helps?

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by: RedGreen @ Sat Oct 31, 2009 at 00:17:44 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Watch that shit

I have a scraggly mustache.

I tried shaving it off in 1978, but I just didn't look the same.

No fair commenting on whether "now" is the same as 1978.

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno

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by: Ralphie @ Sat Oct 31, 2009 at 01:21:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

If you watched Dan Maes talk, you should add him to the list

he isn't some guy that's lower then dirt. He'll have a chance at the convention.

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by: A-bob @ Fri Oct 30, 2009 at 22:25:22 PM UTC

He'll have a chance at the convention

A chance to do what?

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by: One Queer Dude @ Sun Nov 01, 2009 at 02:26:51 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

If I change my vote from last time,

which I did, does that mean I lose my house either way?  I'm not much of a hedge manager.

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by: WesternSlopeThought @ Fri Oct 30, 2009 at 23:28:22 PM UTC