Frazier to Drop Senate Bid, Challenge Perlmutter?

When it comes to the US Senate....

DOWN GOES FRAY-ZUH!

We are all triguardian, but some of us are more triguardian than others.

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by: redstateblues @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 10:50:44 AM CDT

So where does this leave

Ed Tauer?

"Please don't eat any peanuts out of anyone's crap." - LaughingBoy

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by: RedGreen @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 11:10:58 AM CDT

Not to mention

John "Who?" Larew.

We are all triguardian, but some of us are more triguardian than others.

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by: redstateblues @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 11:14:38 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Have Segway

will travel.

Yeah, except Tauer is a serious potential candidate for something, Larew isn't.

"Please don't eat any peanuts out of anyone's crap." - LaughingBoy

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by: RedGreen @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 11:21:48 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Tauer would be a stronger candidate than Frazier

But neither are ideal for this district. The vast majority of the votes come from Jefferson County, where Perlmutter has a huge base. A candidate from Adams County or Aurora will always be at a natural disadvantage.

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by: Colorado Pols @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 11:30:01 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Keep that distribution in mind

when we hear all the talk about Frazier winning election to represent Aurora at large. Only about a third of Aurora is in the 7th CD.

"Please don't eat any peanuts out of anyone's crap." - LaughingBoy

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by: RedGreen @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 11:37:05 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

And very few people vote in municipal elections

Frazier almost certainly is not that well known in Aurora, even if he did win a citywide election. Outside of Denver, where city elections are big money and get huge media attention, nobody pays attention to city races.  

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by: Colorado Pols @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 11:44:20 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Plus

You get to vote for two (or is three?) candidates. It's not even comparable to the size and scope of a statewide, one person one vote election.

We are all triguardian, but some of us are more triguardian than others.

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by: redstateblues @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 11:46:21 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

We added this above

Because it is such an important point. Frazier and Wadhams will point this out as much as possible, and the press will often bite on it. But in reality, 95% of Aurora voters probably couldn't name one member of the city council. Most people haven't the slightest idea who represents them in city council matters.

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by: Colorado Pols @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 11:51:42 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Absolutely right

The turn out for City council elections is pathetic to start with and many who do vote wouldn't remember who it was they voted for a year later.    

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by: BlueCat @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 11:57:56 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

It's vote for two

for the Aurora at-large candidates. (There are four at-large council members, serving staggered terms, so two are elected each election.)

Frazier probably has a higher profile than the other Aurora at-large councilors, but that still isn't saying much.

His 2007 vote was a scant 27 votes higher than his 2003 vote: http://www.coloradopols.com/sh... -- does that mean he's reached his ceiling?

"Please don't eat any peanuts out of anyone's crap." - LaughingBoy

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by: RedGreen @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 14:23:14 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

2007 Aurora At-Large Results

AT-LARGE Total
Bennett 11,777
Frazier 14,645
Pierce 14,116
Senn   5,495
Wilkiins   9,718
Total 55,751

This movie has been rated PG-13 for sci-fi violence and destruction

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by: Pam Bennett @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 18:54:54 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Which means

as few as 22,875 (and a half!) people voted in that race (if everyone cast votes for two candidates, which not everyone would have). Since roughly a third of Aurora falls in the 7th CD, that could mean just over 7,000 folks who voted for Frazier can vote for him again. No disrespect meant toward you or your campaign, Pam, but that's not exactly the foundation of a strong congressional run. Not the way Wadhams is spinning it, at least.

"Please don't eat any peanuts out of anyone's crap." - LaughingBoy

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by: RedGreen @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 21:12:04 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I Support Rep. Ed Perlmutter

I do not plan on running for CD7. I do support Rep. Ed Perlmutter and look forward to helping his re-election campaign and voting for him again.

One key item to consider is that I won all the precincts, 13, in Adams County in 2007, thereby taking Adams County. I don't have the numbers handy, however, the numbers are on the Adams Co. Clerk's website (a very good website it is too).

This movie has been rated PG-13 for sci-fi violence and destruction

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by: Pam Bennett @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 21:41:31 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Darn I was looking forward to Frazier vs. Norton

If only Ali had jumped in (I don't know if he's old enough) it would have been the golden age of boxing.

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by: Danny the Red (hair) @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 11:42:53 AM CDT

It is a good move...

Frazier seems to be banking on the idea that 2010 will be a good Republican year.  Whether it will be or not remains to be seen, but at least by moving to 7, Frazier accomplishes two things.  1.) He gets to stay in the game past the primary, where he really didn't stand much chance against Norton.  2.) He helps his fundraising woes by moving into a position where he is the undisputed front runner and I assume there are also some Norton supporters who will help Frazier as a way to thank him for being a good soldier and clearing the field for Norton.

If the election were held today, Frazier would stand no chance against Perlmutter.  Still, a lot can happen between now and 2010.  If the Democrats can't get past their infighting and give Republicans easy pot shots from the outside, Frazier is at least in a better position to take advantage.

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by: jmatt12 @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 11:55:35 AM CDT

There's no infighting in CD-7

Everyone loves Perlmutter. US Senate primary infighting doesn't translate into discord in the various Congressional districts--as much as Republicans wish it would.

We are all triguardian, but some of us are more triguardian than others.

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by: redstateblues @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 11:57:07 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Really, what a pipe dream

A serious Dem challenge to Perlmutter? He's untouchable.

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by: BlueCat @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 12:00:11 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Not within the district

but in DC.  Pelosi v. Reid v. Obama v. Blue Dogs v. Progressive Left.

Perlmutter has effectively stayed above this fray but at some point you have to wonder if it has some residual effect on him.

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by: jmatt12 @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 12:00:54 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Agreed

Essentially my analysis posted below.

And a lot can happen between now and an election over a year away, especially with a poor economy, a "jobless" recovery, and midterm elections which historically go against the party in power.  

Please donate what you can to Haiti Earthquake Relief

"Here on earth, God's work must truly be our own"   John F. Kennedy

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by: allyncooper @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 12:37:27 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I actually think its a good move politically .......

The point is correctly made that Frazier has almost almost no chance of winning the GOP nomination for Senate. And its also valid he probably will have little chance of beating Perlmutter.

However, running in CD7 he has a very good chance of being the GOP nominee against Perlmutter and running in a general election against one candidate. And even a loss in the general against Perlmutter gets him name recognition, a platform for his issues, and a bigger donor base.

I think its a win-win strategy for Frazier, especially if he can run an effective campaign and come closer to Perlmuter than most people believe is possible now. Even a loss against Perlmuter as the GOP nominee is politically advantageous to an anemic, underfunded, Senate run in which he can't even get the nomination.

Frazier is young, ambitious, and can bide his time for bigger and better things....

Please donate what you can to Haiti Earthquake Relief

"Here on earth, God's work must truly be our own"   John F. Kennedy

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by: allyncooper @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 12:21:22 PM CDT

All very good points

I think Pols may be on the wrong side of this one.

"Oh Lord, are there really people starving still?"

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by: Littletonian @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 14:43:20 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Rick O'Donnell parlayed his loss into stardom

I love this "win=loss" analysis.  It's so positive!

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by: Jambalaya @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 19:11:15 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

LOL

Right you are. And I've always seen Ryan's campaign as a massive networking project.


"It is hard enough to remember my opinions, without also remembering my reasons for them!" - Nietzsche  

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by: twas brillig @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 19:36:36 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Could be interesting

In 1994 a lot of guys like Ryan Frazier upset a lot of great Members of Congress like Ed Perlmutter

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by: ArdentAdmirer2 @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 12:29:43 PM CDT

Santa carries a lot of ponies in his sleigh, too

n/t

When I use lots of words, they always form an analysis (and, while producing high volume, also produce high information-density).
--Steve Harvey, 2009

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by: Ralphie @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 12:37:04 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I agree just ask Speaker Foley

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by: ArdentAdmirer2 @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 12:38:14 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

2010 is not 1994

Newt Gingrich had a plan in 1994, he took a hit out on America, the 'Contract on Americans,' or what ever it was called.

It gave him a plan and an argument around which to base a strategy.  I may not agree with Newt on much, but he was a leader.

The modern GOP has no leaders, no discipline and no plan.

You can't have one wing yelling "no taxes" and another wing yelling "no deficit" without people in the middle going "huh?"

The GOP is so fractured right now, they can't even craft a Luntz approved soft sell of ideas the American public have already rejected. The only thing that unites them is opposition to Obama and that won't get the job done.

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by: Danny the Red (hair) @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 12:56:55 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Which isn't to say

the GOP might get its act together by next summer and be able to capitalize on voter discontent, to the extent that isn't marginalized in a small slice of the electorate that's going to oppose Democrats no matter what. But Danny's right, no sign of it yet.

"Please don't eat any peanuts out of anyone's crap." - LaughingBoy

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by: RedGreen @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 14:25:47 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Actually...

I think that there were more "ponies" in Santa's sleigh for Mark Foley than for Speaker Foley....

"But when I see a 9-11 victim family on television, or whatever, I'm just like, 'Oh, shut up!' I'm so sick of them because they're always complaining."  Glenn Beck  

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by: Arvadonian @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 13:00:32 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Congresman Perlmutter

represents the district extraordinarily well.

He'll win re election handily.

How about a 5 trillion tax cut for the upper 1% that's borrowed from China  and then invested in China? The Republican platform has legs.

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by: Ray Springfield @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 12:49:51 PM CDT

In related news...

Romanoff pulls Senate primary challenge, opposes DeGette for CD1 Democratic nomination.

" Don't worry scrote.  There's plenty of 'tards out there living really kickass lives.  My first wife was 'tarded...Now she's a pilot."

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by: DaftPunk @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 14:29:08 PM CDT

Now THAT would be interesting

Because DeGette is not beloved by any means. Romanoff could win that.

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by: Colorado Pols @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 18:15:00 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

This is about CD-4

as I pointed out in another thread, whether Frazier knows it or not. Wadhams is finally starting to show some game.

http://www.coloradopols.com/sh...

This is really about CD-4 and helping the NRCC, by forcing the DCCC to play defense in two districts while going on offense in the one that really counts to them.  

"It is hard enough to remember my opinions, without also remembering my reasons for them!" - Nietzsche  

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by: twas brillig @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 14:51:21 PM CDT

How much money does Perlmutter have banked?

And how much will the NRCC put into this race? 1. Perlmutter has a ton of dough (though I don't recall the exact amount).
2. The NRCC is already several million behind the DCCC. Will they put that money into a race they don't think they can win?
Conclusion: The DCCC won't put money into this race until they think it's in play.  

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by: ajb @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 15:24:58 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I agree with you this could put pressure on the DCCC

but I'm not sure that will be the case. Congressman Perlmutter is in good shape and if Mr. Frazier doesn't show some momentum, there won't be any need for the DCCC to become involved. It is up to Frazier, if he doesn't start hard and fast he will fizzle out and his move to the 7th CD race won't help Republicans at all.

Next week is going to be very interesting. Does anyone know how much money Cory Gardner raised the last quarter? I haven't heard anything form him about his fundraising.

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by: Republican 36 @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 16:22:27 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

How much does Frazier have ?

I assume Frazier would be able to transfer funds from his Senate bid to the CD7 effort. Anybody know how much that is?

I believe someone said Perlmutter has about $800,000 already banked, correct me if I'm wrong. No doubt he can easily crank that up, and no doubt will, if he faces Frazier. So any way you look at it, Ed's got a huge advantage money wise.  

Please donate what you can to Haiti Earthquake Relief

"Here on earth, God's work must truly be our own"   John F. Kennedy

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by: allyncooper @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 18:02:35 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yes, he can transfer the money

Federal campaign cash transfers in either direction.

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by: Colorado Pols @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 18:13:55 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

As of 6-30-09, he had

$816K on hand, according to the FEC.  Mr. Frazier had $127K on hand as of 6-30-09.

I agree with those who say it is a good move for Mr. Frazier politically--he's likely to get a lot more support than in a Senate run.  I don't think he can beat Mr. Perlmutter unless Mr. Perlmutter effectively collapses, which seems highly unlikely.  

Discipline without purpose is tyranny.

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by: Automaticftp @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 18:36:46 PM CDT

[ Parent ]