CO-04 (Special Election)
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(R) Greg Lopez
(R) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Joe Biden*
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%↓
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
90%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
90%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
(R) Ron Hanks
40%
30%
20%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(R) Deborah Flora
(R) J. Sonnenberg
30%↑
15%↑
10%↓
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Dave Williams
(R) Jeff Crank
50%↓
50%↑
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
90%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) Brittany Pettersen
85%↑
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
(R) Janak Joshi
60%↑
35%↓
30%↑
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
October 13, 2009 06:48 PM UTC
39 Comments
DOWN GOES FRAY-ZUH!
Ed Tauer?
John “Who?” Larew.
will travel.
Yeah, except Tauer is a serious potential candidate for something, Larew isn’t.
But neither are ideal for this district. The vast majority of the votes come from Jefferson County, where Perlmutter has a huge base. A candidate from Adams County or Aurora will always be at a natural disadvantage.
when we hear all the talk about Frazier winning election to represent Aurora at large. Only about a third of Aurora is in the 7th CD.
Frazier almost certainly is not that well known in Aurora, even if he did win a citywide election. Outside of Denver, where city elections are big money and get huge media attention, nobody pays attention to city races.
You get to vote for two (or is three?) candidates. It’s not even comparable to the size and scope of a statewide, one person one vote election.
Because it is such an important point. Frazier and Wadhams will point this out as much as possible, and the press will often bite on it. But in reality, 95% of Aurora voters probably couldn’t name one member of the city council. Most people haven’t the slightest idea who represents them in city council matters.
The turn out for City council elections is pathetic to start with and many who do vote wouldn’t remember who it was they voted for a year later.
for the Aurora at-large candidates. (There are four at-large council members, serving staggered terms, so two are elected each election.)
Frazier probably has a higher profile than the other Aurora at-large councilors, but that still isn’t saying much.
His 2007 vote was a scant 27 votes higher than his 2003 vote: http://www.coloradopols.com/sh… — does that mean he’s reached his ceiling?
AT-LARGE Total
Bennett 11,777
Frazier 14,645
Pierce 14,116
Senn 5,495
Wilkiins 9,718
Total 55,751
as few as 22,875 (and a half!) people voted in that race (if everyone cast votes for two candidates, which not everyone would have). Since roughly a third of Aurora falls in the 7th CD, that could mean just over 7,000 folks who voted for Frazier can vote for him again. No disrespect meant toward you or your campaign, Pam, but that’s not exactly the foundation of a strong congressional run. Not the way Wadhams is spinning it, at least.
I do not plan on running for CD7. I do support Rep. Ed Perlmutter and look forward to helping his re-election campaign and voting for him again.
One key item to consider is that I won all the precincts, 13, in Adams County in 2007, thereby taking Adams County. I don’t have the numbers handy, however, the numbers are on the Adams Co. Clerk’s website (a very good website it is too).
If only Ali had jumped in (I don’t know if he’s old enough) it would have been the golden age of boxing.
Frazier seems to be banking on the idea that 2010 will be a good Republican year. Whether it will be or not remains to be seen, but at least by moving to 7, Frazier accomplishes two things. 1.) He gets to stay in the game past the primary, where he really didn’t stand much chance against Norton. 2.) He helps his fundraising woes by moving into a position where he is the undisputed front runner and I assume there are also some Norton supporters who will help Frazier as a way to thank him for being a good soldier and clearing the field for Norton.
If the election were held today, Frazier would stand no chance against Perlmutter. Still, a lot can happen between now and 2010. If the Democrats can’t get past their infighting and give Republicans easy pot shots from the outside, Frazier is at least in a better position to take advantage.
Everyone loves Perlmutter. US Senate primary infighting doesn’t translate into discord in the various Congressional districts–as much as Republicans wish it would.
A serious Dem challenge to Perlmutter? He’s untouchable.
but in DC. Pelosi v. Reid v. Obama v. Blue Dogs v. Progressive Left.
Perlmutter has effectively stayed above this fray but at some point you have to wonder if it has some residual effect on him.
Essentially my analysis posted below.
And a lot can happen between now and an election over a year away, especially with a poor economy, a “jobless” recovery, and midterm elections which historically go against the party in power.
The point is correctly made that Frazier has almost almost no chance of winning the GOP nomination for Senate. And its also valid he probably will have little chance of beating Perlmutter.
However, running in CD7 he has a very good chance of being the GOP nominee against Perlmutter and running in a general election against one candidate. And even a loss in the general against Perlmutter gets him name recognition, a platform for his issues, and a bigger donor base.
I think its a win-win strategy for Frazier, especially if he can run an effective campaign and come closer to Perlmuter than most people believe is possible now. Even a loss against Perlmuter as the GOP nominee is politically advantageous to an anemic, underfunded, Senate run in which he can’t even get the nomination.
Frazier is young, ambitious, and can bide his time for bigger and better things….
I think Pols may be on the wrong side of this one.
I love this “win=loss” analysis. It’s so positive!
Right you are. And I’ve always seen Ryan’s campaign as a massive networking project.
In 1994 a lot of guys like Ryan Frazier upset a lot of great Members of Congress like Ed Perlmutter
n/t
Newt Gingrich had a plan in 1994, he took a hit out on America, the ‘Contract on Americans,’ or what ever it was called.
It gave him a plan and an argument around which to base a strategy. I may not agree with Newt on much, but he was a leader.
The modern GOP has no leaders, no discipline and no plan.
You can’t have one wing yelling “no taxes” and another wing yelling “no deficit” without people in the middle going “huh?”
The GOP is so fractured right now, they can’t even craft a Luntz approved soft sell of ideas the American public have already rejected. The only thing that unites them is opposition to Obama and that won’t get the job done.
the GOP might get its act together by next summer and be able to capitalize on voter discontent, to the extent that isn’t marginalized in a small slice of the electorate that’s going to oppose Democrats no matter what. But Danny’s right, no sign of it yet.
I think that there were more “ponies” in Santa’s sleigh for Mark Foley than for Speaker Foley….
represents the district extraordinarily well.
He’ll win re election handily.
Romanoff pulls Senate primary challenge, opposes DeGette for CD1 Democratic nomination.
Because DeGette is not beloved by any means. Romanoff could win that.
as I pointed out in another thread, whether Frazier knows it or not. Wadhams is finally starting to show some game.
http://www.coloradopols.com/sh…
This is really about CD-4 and helping the NRCC, by forcing the DCCC to play defense in two districts while going on offense in the one that really counts to them.
And how much will the NRCC put into this race? 1. Perlmutter has a ton of dough (though I don’t recall the exact amount).
2. The NRCC is already several million behind the DCCC. Will they put that money into a race they don’t think they can win?
Conclusion: The DCCC won’t put money into this race until they think it’s in play.
but I’m not sure that will be the case. Congressman Perlmutter is in good shape and if Mr. Frazier doesn’t show some momentum, there won’t be any need for the DCCC to become involved. It is up to Frazier, if he doesn’t start hard and fast he will fizzle out and his move to the 7th CD race won’t help Republicans at all.
Next week is going to be very interesting. Does anyone know how much money Cory Gardner raised the last quarter? I haven’t heard anything form him about his fundraising.
I assume Frazier would be able to transfer funds from his Senate bid to the CD7 effort. Anybody know how much that is?
I believe someone said Perlmutter has about $800,000 already banked, correct me if I’m wrong. No doubt he can easily crank that up, and no doubt will, if he faces Frazier. So any way you look at it, Ed’s got a huge advantage money wise.
Federal campaign cash transfers in either direction.
$816K on hand, according to the FEC. Mr. Frazier had $127K on hand as of 6-30-09.
I agree with those who say it is a good move for Mr. Frazier politically–he’s likely to get a lot more support than in a Senate run. I don’t think he can beat Mr. Perlmutter unless Mr. Perlmutter effectively collapses, which seems highly unlikely.