Pols Poll: CD-4

I think Rep. Markey wins in a close election.

The reason I think that is that Rep. Markey is fairly moderate, is doing a lot of constituent work, and is meeting with and listening to her constituents.  She's also doing well in terms of fundraising.

Ultimately, I think Mr. Gardner will come across as too partisan and too far right--which I think the district had enough of under Ms. Musgrave.  My sense is that the district itself is breathing something of a sigh of relief that they have a competent Representative who has done, and is doing, a lot of things the right way.  

Discipline without purpose is tyranny.

---

by: Automaticftp @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 18:16:00 PM UTC

My sense is that the district itself is breathing something of a sigh of relief that they have a competent Representative

   The demographics of C.D. 4 have been changing over the years, too.  
  Had Betsy narrowly beat Musty last year (which is what I feared would happen), she would be in trouble next year.  But Markey won by something like 12%.  That wasn't just Musgrave fatigue; that was something more.
  I am not saying Markey has a lock on re-election.  She doesn't.  But I think the Big Line has the odds right.

---

by: One Queer Dude @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 18:22:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree

Some of it was MM fatigue, but a lot of it was people liked BM. And I think with 2 years of doing the job perfectly, they'll like her even more.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

---

by: DavidThi808 @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 00:05:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

No More Obama Vote

I still think that she can and will win her bid for reelection in CD4, it is going to be a very tough campaign. She has done what she needs to do to walk the line and continue to keep her progressive base while holding onto more moderate U's and R's.

That said, this election won't drive the kind of progressive turnout that we saw last year, so she still has a lot of work to do.  

---

by: bhusher @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 18:33:41 PM UTC

2008 results

Markey beat Musgrave by 12 and ran 14 points ahead of Obama in the district. Obama's coattails were important in a number of competitive districts, particularly those with sizable minority populations, but I don't think that was true in CO4. Markey won because she picked up something approaching 60 percent among unaffiliated voters. Because of the GOP registration edge in the district, Markey will again need to win a substantial majority in the unaffiliated vote. If the GOP nominee gets anywhere approaching half the unaffiliated vote, he wins. That's the tough -- but not insurmountable -- math facing any Democrat in CO4.

---

by: BobMoore @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 20:47:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oops

Correction, meant to say Markey ran 8 points ahead of Obama in the district. Long day

---

by: BobMoore @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 20:48:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Gardner Wins.

Rep. Gardner is a smart guy and he's not afraid to work his ass off to win this.  The district leans his way and all indications are that next year will be a good year to oust Dems who never should have been elected in the first place.  

---

by: TaxCheatGeithner @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 01:17:19 AM UTC

If he's so hot to campaign

Ask him why he's put off an interview by me? It's not like I'm the toughest interview he needs to face in the campaign.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

---

by: DavidThi808 @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 02:50:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

perhaps, but Gardner is starting to demonstrate some Bob Beauprez-like qualities

   For instance, there was his principled stand against the Nanny State and for freedom...freedom for drunk drivers to maime and kill innocent victims with vote against tougher D.U.I. legislation.
  And now there is his principled stand against drunk drivers by supporting creation of a felony D.U.I. law (but not explaining how to pay for the additional jail cells which will be needed if the legislation passes).

---

by: One Queer Dude @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 17:37:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Garnder

My family is from Yuma, my family goes to the same church as Cory. My youngest Brother went to school with Cory.  Cory is smart he is smart enough to not spout the social conservative stuff that he believes in becuase he saw what happened to Musgrave. But just becuase he won't say it does not mean he does not belive it. Poor Cory actually took a misguided adventure out on the birther branch for a while.

Don't be fooled. He is too smart for school. If you don't believe me just ask Cory how many Tribbetts he knows.

Best regards,

Tim Tribbett

---

by: TimothyTribbett @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 03:36:06 AM UTC