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Rasmussen Shows Mixed Bag for Bennet

by: Colorado Pols

Fri Sep 11, 2009 at 14:56:14 PM MDT

Rasmussen Reports decided to drop a poll into the field on Colorado's U.S. Senate race at an unfortunate time. While the poll shows that incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet is not very popular, the matchups between potential challengers Ken Buck and Ryan Frazier are all but irrelevant now that Jane Norton has entered the race on the Republican side.

But rather than focus on what the Rasmussen poll does not tell us about 2010, let's look instead at the small nuggets of valuable information that it does contain.

Bennet outpolls Buck 43-37, but trails Frazier 40-39. While giddy Frazier supporters (both of them) will no doubt point to this as proof that their man has what it takes to be the next GOP Senator from Colorado, that's not the case. Looking a little deeper into the poll shows why:

Colorado Pols :: Rasmussen Shows Mixed Bag for Bennet

Fourteen percent (14%) of Colorado voters have a Very Favorable opinion of Bennet while 18% have a Very Unfavorable view. His opponents are less well known and nearly half the state's voters don't have even a soft impression of either candidate. Buck is viewed Very Favorably by 9% and Very Unfavorably by 7%. For Frazier, the numbers are 6% and 6% respectively.

As you can see, Frazier outpolls Buck in a head-to-head despite the fact (or rather, because of the fact) that nobody knows who he is. In this poll, Frazier basically plays the roll of the "generic Republican candidate," and what voters are saying is that right now they'll take an unknown Republican candidate over Bennet...but that doesn't mean they would take Frazier. This would be bad news for Bennet even if he wasn't facing a difficult primary challenge from former House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, but it's also not terribly different from what a lot of elected officials are seeing around the country: People just don't like the incumbents.

To illustrate that last point, take a look at the toplines. Bennet's total popularity rating is at 43% -- not good, certainly, but not awful for an unknown Senator, either. Buck is at 35% and Frazier at 26% when it comes to favorability, which gets back to our earlier point about the head-to-head matchups. Voters appear to like a generic Republican candidate better than Bennet, but Buck and Frazier certainly aren't popular enough to fill that role. Would Norton poll better in this regard? Perhaps.

The biggest concern for Bennet is in the 34% negative rating he holds. This is pretty high for someone whom the public really doesn't know at all. It's a lot easier to move from unknown to favorable than it is from unliked to favorable, and Bennet needs to hurry up on fixing this problem before it starts to snowball on him.

Tags: ryan frazier, ken buck, andrew romanoff, Michael Bennet, (All Tags)

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Rasmussen Shows Mixed Bag for Bennet | 33 comments

the good news for Bennet is that the guy who's beating him (albeit w/in the margin of error) will not be the GOP candidate next fall

by: One Queer Dude @ Fri Sep 11, 2009 at 23:32:38 PM UTC

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That's the problem for the GOP

In 2010 the "generic Republican candidate" may always look better to voters than the "actual Republican candidate." The more they learn, the less voters like.

by: Colorado Pols @ Fri Sep 11, 2009 at 23:47:29 PM UTC

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by: you @ soon

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Ritter continues to look weak against McInnis

Question is will we change the Governor out if his numbers don't improve.
I think Jane Norton would have been up 5-6 points over Bennet especially if you educate the voter on each.

by: Retired @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 03:00:01 AM UTC

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To: Colorado Polls - an Inquiry

I'm out-of-town and just logged on. Do we know the methodology for this poll? Was it an automated robo phone poll or a traditional poll with real people talking to a scientific sample of real voters?

by: Republican 36 @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 00:39:20 AM UTC

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Google Rasmussen's web site

They're usually pretty good about disclosing their methodology.

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same. Which one will it be? --Joseph V. Paterno

by: Ralphie @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 00:43:49 AM UTC

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Thanks.

by: Republican 36 @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 00:45:25 AM UTC

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All Rasmussen polls are robopolls.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

"Have a Bobby bar! My dad made them." --Jon Huntsman Jr.

by: sxp151 @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 05:28:39 AM UTC

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Thanks.

by: Republican 36 @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 01:32:54 AM UTC

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Romanoff Campaign Manager

Any one heard who is going to manage Romanoff's campaign?

by: silverandblue @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 01:15:05 AM UTC

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Why? You thinking about voting for him?

n/t

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same. Which one will it be? --Joseph V. Paterno

by: Ralphie @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 01:36:55 AM UTC

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Maybe he wants a job n/t

Sometimes, I guess, you have to let the inner bitch out.

by: gertie97 @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 01:46:22 AM UTC

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is he a member of Ramona Martinez' family?

by: One Queer Dude @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 02:02:09 AM UTC

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Manager for Andrew

Romanoff seems to be another "smartest guy in the room type" (sorry Mike B) so his manager pick will be interesting. Will he pick a doormat or someone who will add value?

by: silverandblue @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 02:16:59 AM UTC

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To reiterate

Why do you care? You're not going to vote for him.

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same. Which one will it be? --Joseph V. Paterno

by: Ralphie @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 02:21:16 AM UTC

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Mind Reader

Ralphie you are a better blogger than mind reader. Who cares who I'm voting for.

by: silverandblue @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 02:37:35 AM UTC

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I'm simply questioning your motives.

n/t

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same. Which one will it be? --Joseph V. Paterno

by: Ralphie @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 02:39:11 AM UTC

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Simple Question

I stand by my simple question.

by: silverandblue @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 02:43:38 AM UTC

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Same reason I'd wonder

who Jane Norton plans to hire. Anyone heard?

She's announcing Tuesday.

by: RedGreen @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 03:20:56 AM UTC

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Dick Wadhams?

He's got experience running a Senate campaign and the state party. He just needs to get some of the kinks out.

by: One Queer Dude @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 19:49:26 PM UTC

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The answer is...

Craig Goldman...the guys who ran five states out here for McCain. Colorado was one of those states. He lives in DC.

by: guesswho @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 20:26:37 PM UTC

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Katie Witt?

Didn't she win Colorado for Romney?

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

by: DavidThi808 @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 22:08:26 PM UTC

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Romanoff does Huge favor for Bennett

Also, huge favor for himself.

A Democratic Primary will raise awareness and name recognition for both B & R. Discussion of the issues will help public pay attention to their positions.

Best of all, a primary will "focus" Bennett on serving his constituents.

by: ParkHill @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 03:49:42 AM UTC

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Bad news for Ritter

Under 50% job approval and favorable ratings again.

by: redstateblues @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 06:18:31 AM UTC

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That, to me,

was the most significant number in the poll.

Forget the head-to-heads. An incumbent needs to be above 50 percent job approval.

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same. Which one will it be? --Joseph V. Paterno

by: Ralphie @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 13:14:16 PM UTC

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Agree Ritter is in real trouble

Numbers will likely drop futher with all the announced cuts of services.

by: Retired @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 13:37:48 PM UTC

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Bennet's D numbers are solid

Let's talk some numbers here. Among Dems in this poll Bennet is 86-6 vs. Buck and 83-9 vs. Frazier. Also Bennet's favorable rating is 75% among Dems. The bottom line is that Senator Bennet is doing well among his base D voters.

by: bringonthemountain @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 14:01:57 PM UTC

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yes but among dems

what are Bennet's numbers vs a primary candidate?
your numbers point out that 6 or 9 % of Democrats would rather vote for a Republican than for him - in a state where it takes every dem and a majority of independents to get a democrat elected statewide.

by: wade norris @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 14:34:43 PM UTC

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And for a Republican

It takes every repub and a majority of independents. You always have a few disaffected in each party that go vote for the other guy. 9% is worrisome but not that big a deal this far out, especially when put up against a generic repub rather than a specific.

With that said, while I think Bennet will win, I also think Ken Buck will make him work his ass off for that win.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

by: DavidThi808 @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 22:06:56 PM UTC

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presuming

he makes it out of the primary

by: wade norris @ Sun Sep 13, 2009 at 01:02:23 AM UTC

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presuming

he doesn't get hit by a comet, either.

Wade, your hysteria that 6 to 9 percent of Democrats -- how'd you put it, all italicized? -- would rather vote for a Republican than for him is misplaced. That's a remarkably high level of party loyalty, especially for a candidate who hasn't been around that long.

Last year, Mark Udall managed to beat Bob Schaffer even though 8 percent of Democrats said they'd vote for Bob Schaffer instead of Mark Udall. You don't get much better party loyalty than that.

http://www.publicpolicypolling...

by: RedGreen @ Sun Sep 13, 2009 at 01:49:05 AM UTC

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so you mean you are

confident that Bennet has the primary won?

by: wade norris @ Sun Sep 13, 2009 at 05:23:07 AM UTC

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Bennet has the primary won?

No, anything could happen, but if I had to bet right now, I'd say Bennet has better cards.

by: RedGreen @ Sun Sep 13, 2009 at 12:39:33 PM UTC

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I agree

People can yell all they want that Bennet has never been "elected." The point remains that most voters will view him as the incumbent. And that is a major advantage.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

by: DavidThi808 @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 02:41:09 AM UTC

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