VOTE: Who Will Win the U.S. Senate Race in Alabama?

UPDATE 9:00PM: Doug Jones wins!

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UPDATE 7:20PM: Roy Moore leads 53-48% with 22% of precincts reporting.

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Roy Moore, left, and Doug Jones (AL.com)

Today is Election Day in Alabama, where a special election to fill the Senate seat of now-Attorney General Jeff Sessions has become one of the most-watched races in recent memory.

Thanks to a number of factors, from the odd timing of the election to the difficulty in projecting voter turnout in a largely-rural state, political prognosticators have been all over the map on what might or might not happen in Alabama today. A good number of polling firms, in fact, are flat-out refusing to put out numbers in the traditional horse race format because there are so many unknown components at play. In other words, friends, you have as good an idea of what is going to take place today as anyone else!

Cast your vote in the poll below, and remember: As always in our polls, we want to know what you THINK is going to happen, not what you might prefer to see in the outcome.

Who Will Win the U.S. Senate Race in Alabama?

 

56 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. DavieDavie says:

    Unfortunately, it's likely the voter suppression actions (closing drivers license offices in counties with greater than 75% black populations, no early voting, etc) combined with the typical Republican "fall in line" behavior indicates, as with Trump, voters will hold their noses and vote for the sexual predator rather than break with orthodoxy.

    • DavieDavie says:

      I'm happy that there was an effective antidote to voter suppression in yesterday's Alabama voting:

      Al Giordano hailed — and explained — the N.A.A.C.P.’s get-out-the-vote efforts. Jamil Smith said: “Voting in America, for black folks and other marginalized communities, is often an act of self-preservation. It’s worth noting how patriotic it is that they keep working to improve a nation that not only subjugates them on a daily basis, but cries foul whenever progress is made.”

  2. DaftPunkDaftPunk says:

    Moore didn’t do it, but if he did, it was ok. Also, those women are liars paid off by Soros.

  3. Colorado PolsColorado Pols says:

    As always, the race probably comes down to turnout. But this line from Politico is worth mentioning:

    The Fox News poll suggests pollsters who don’t call voters on cell phones may be missing Jones voters: The Democrat leads by a whopping 30 percentage points among cell-phone respondents in the survey.

  4. flatiron says:

    Virginia Effect plus a certain percentage of Republicans who won't vote for Moore will give Jones a 2 pt victory.

  5. JohnInDenver says:

    Moore narrowly won his elections before, when he had a less politically prominent opponent, no one running a write-in campaign for someone with cover for partisans, and fewer highlighted political negatives.

    If Sen. Shelby cannot vote for Moore and goes public with it, I think there are enough Republicans who will swallow hard and follow his lead. Not enough to elect Nick Saban to an office he isn't running for. Not enough to vote for Jones and create a landslide election. But enough to tip the balance and put a Democrat in office until 2020.

    Of course, I thought there would be enough revulsion about Trump that he would lose, too. So I may be an excessively optimistic observer, hoping others will vote as they SHOULD (ought to, but not necessarily will).

  6. Diogenesdemar says:

    I can’t remember the first time I had any faith in the voters of Alabama to make a decent decision . . . 

    . . . this isn’t it.

  7. mamajama55mamajama55 says:

    8:30 And the Times has called it for Jones! +1.7
    Take that, you racist piece of swamp slime, you freaky little cowboy hat wearing perverted sophomore stalker, you Bannonite Breitbart- barfing buffoon!

    Ok, I’m done. for now.

    NYT early election results:

    8:15 MT, 86% in 49.3% Jones to 49.1 % Moore – Jones is about 2,000 votes ahead. 😀 Now Jones is about 500 votes ahead.

    With 43% in, Moore is 6 points ahead 🙁

    With 1% in, Jones has 40 pt leadlaugh Times predicts a squeaker though, Jones with a .02 margin.

    • MichaelBowmanMichaelBowman says:

      If Jones pulls this out wouldn't you relish the power Susan Collins holds over the Senate Majority? She should switch to Independent tomorrow and caucus with the Dems. 

       
      • RepealAndReplace says:

        They would still have their Holy Roller Veep who would break ties. But Collins could shake things up all the same.

        • MichaelBowmanMichaelBowman says:

          Obama won the state twice; Clinton won by 3.  Can't imagine there would be much collateral damage if that's what it takes to put the old white boys in their place.  If it's 50/50 what determines who controls the committees? Majority Leader?  

           
      • gaf says:

        Collins? With the one exception of the ACA vote, whenever the Rs have really needed Collins' vote they got it, as they did on the tax bill–when she was either hopelessly naive, stupid, or willfully in denial to believe McConnell and the House would follow through on "promises" to her.

        • DavieDavie says:

          Unfortunately, gaf, you are correct.  She is in lockstep with the GOP's agenda to corrupt our institutions and desecrate the founding principles of our nation:

          The Senate voted Tuesday to confirm one of President Donald Trump’s judicial nominees, Leonard Steven Grasz, despite the fact that Grasz earned an embarrassing and unanimous “not qualified” rating from the American Bar Association.

          Every Republican present voted to confirm Grasz, 56, to a lifetime seat on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 8th Circuit. That includes moderates like Sens. Susan Collins (Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), as well as retiring Sens. Jeff Flake (Ariz.) and Bob Corker (Tenn.). Every Democrat opposed him in the 50-48 vote.

          • MichaelBowmanMichaelBowman says:

            Your point is taken, Davie, but she's inside a rotten, corrupt caucus that has given her few choices.  It's the equivalent of finally standing up to the bully in the schoolyard: they generally run. Bring Murkowski with her (unlikely giver her state demographics).  Point being, those two (Republican) women could upend the current dynamics of the Senate and at the very least get them back to regular order (as one of their white guys promised, but failed to deliver on, months ago?)  Again, you're probably more on point than I, but why not dream a little?

             

             
            • DavieDavie says:

              One can hope, but speaking of Murkowski — she's all in on the revised tax bill because she got what she wanted — to plunder the ANWR:

              Other Republicans once considered shaky were upbeat on Wednesday. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) suggested she had some misgivings about the lower top individual rate, but said she was satisfied with the end product overall.

              “Obviously, there was a great deal of give-and-take and back-and-forth and compromise," said Murkowski, who won an opening for oil drilling in an Arctic wildlife refuge as part of the tax bill. "And everything doesn’t come out exactly as you would have liked. I think the product we’re at is a good one.”

              • MichaelBowmanMichaelBowman says:

                Well…#BabyRepublicanJesus™ did hide all those fossil resources under Russia Alaska so Caribou Barbie could discover them and parlay her allegiance to dinosaur poop (it's a joke, OTD)  into a (failed) political career under Murkowski's watchful hand.

                 

                 
            • DavieDavie says:

              Ugh, Michael.  The latest from Senator Collins regarding regular order:

              The announcement that Republicans had overcome their differences to get to a consensus bill added more fuel to an already fast-moving sprint to the finish line. Republicans dismissed requests by Democrats to delay a vote until the new senator from Alabama, Doug Jones, is sworn-in.

              “I see no need to wait for Doug Jones to become a senator. We vote all the time in lame duck sessions with retired and defeated members casting votes,” said Senator Susan Collins, Republican of Maine.

              Afterall, there isn't a black Democrat in the White House anymore…

  8. 8:21 – NYT has a 90% likelihood of a Jones win. Jones had pulled ahead with mostly favorable areas outstanding.

  9. RepealAndReplace says:

    The N.Y. Times just called the race

     

  10. RepealAndReplace says:

    As Moderatus said………….let the voters decide.

  11. VoyageurVoyageur says:

    Cnn calls it for jones.

    Alabama tells Trump to drop dead!

  12. RepealAndReplace says:

    To quote Andrew Carnegie……

    You lost because your candidate sucked.

  13. Pseudonymous says:

    I can't help but think ol' Roy'd a pulled it out if he only got hisself a few more Jews

  14. DavieDavie says:

    Our very own Eddie Haskell slithered in to save face for the GOP:

    "The people of Alabama deemed Roy Moore unfit to serve in the U.S. Senate,” said National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman Cory Gardner, who had called for Moore to be thrown out of the Senate if elected. “I hope Senator-elect Doug Jones will do the right thing and truly represent Alabama by choosing to vote with the Senate Republican Majority.”

  15. doremi says:

    Perhaps Cory Gardner will at last do the right thing and represent Colorado by voting with the Democrats.   I mean…Hillary Clinton won our state.  Same logic, no?

    • mamajama55mamajama55 says:

      Covfefe Cory always talks like a  moderate…and he votes for the Trump agenda 100% of the time. 

      Being out of step with his roots isn't anything new for Convenient Cory; the gossip in Yuma is that he comes from a very fine FDR New Deal Democratic family, who barely talk to him anymore. 

      • Gilpin Guy says:

        Not a 100% of the time.  Oh man.  And all this time I thought Cory was a wise and independent thinker who weighed all sides of the issue and only made up his mind after carefully considering what's best for America.  I think I've been had by his con man character.  Too bad he isn't up for election in '18.

      • RepealAndReplace says:

        I'm not surprised. Wasn't there a period of time when he was registered as a Dem? No wonder his family won't talk with him.

         

  16. HeavyG says:

    The staff better lay low tonight.  Cheetolini picked both losers in the AL Senate race.  Bwahaha!

  17. ParkHill says:

    Democrats are running 9-10 points ahead of the historical partisan voting patterns. That sweeps out the GOP in Colorado.

    We're all California, now!

    Go Dems!

  18. RepealAndReplace says:

    This is the mirror image of Massachusetts in 2010, when the Bay State elected its first Republican US Senator since 1972. And we saw how that worked out later that year. (One big difference: Martha Coakley was not a bigot or a kiddie diddler.)

    I predict a rash of retirement announcements among House Republicans in the next couple of weeks. I predict the Senate Dems put money into Tennessee and Texas.

    Finally, yesterday shows what a difference op research can make. As long as the GOP nominates these fringe nut cases, there is no telling what is in their background. Remember Christine O'Donnell? It doesn't get much weirder than that.

    Here's hoping Steve Bannon is put in charge of all of their candidate recruitment!

    • Gray in Mountains says:

      But, Martha Coakley dissed the Red Sox

       

    • I don't see this as at all the same. Massachusetts elects moderate Republicans to office more than occasionally. Alabama not so much in the other direction.

      It took a Troy Aikins / Christine O'Donnell level of idiocy combined with a national Democratic wave combined with new DNC strategies that work to get Jones to a 1.5% margin of victory (and a +26 over the state's PVI).

      This is a reminder to Democrats (as if they needed it after the VA elections): run good candidates who connect to local issues, keep the national party out of the way doing party-building, GOTV, and voter registration – and always put someone up for every seat! This seat went unopposed for Jeff Sessions…

    • slavdudeslavdude says:

      As I recall, Coakley also didn't put a whole lot of effort into her campaign, since she seems to have thought she had it in the bag from the outset.

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