CO-04 (Special Election)
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(R) Greg Lopez
(R) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Joe Biden*
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%↓
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
90%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
90%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
(R) Ron Hanks
40%
30%
20%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(R) Deborah Flora
(R) J. Sonnenberg
30%↑
15%↑
10%↓
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Dave Williams
(R) Jeff Crank
50%↓
50%↑
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
90%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) Brittany Pettersen
85%↑
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
(R) Janak Joshi
60%↑
35%↓
30%↑
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
August 19, 2009 04:11 AM UTC
28 Comments
Yes, we know there is a new Public Policy Polling
is that these guys are always blogging before they run their polls about how they expect they will turn out, based on their thin political analysis. Maybe it’s to help generate interest and press, but that seems to me an extremely suspect way to run a “credible” polling outfit.
Also, let’s not forget my pissing match with Tom Jensen where he defended their methodology by agreeing that they really have no relationship to anything.
All this stuff screams “amateur hour,” but they always get press.
I’ve got the same qualms about PPP’s accuracy or relevance, but I haven’t seen them guessing at results before they poll — just teasing the results and then rolling them out for a couple days to extend the attention.
Of course they get press. Meanwhile, Joe Sixpack is going fishing.
that the COlorado Joe sixpack fishes. That’s the image – but I think it’s changed or perhaps was always mythical
I think the average CO voter:
– was born in another state and moved here
– skis once in awhile and knows people who ski a lot
– mountain climbs almost never and knows someone who knows someone who does
– is just as likely to vacation in another state as CO
– doesn’t understand the CO River compact
– lives and works in the metroplex between C-Springs and Ft Collin, including the Boulder/Longmont triangle
– is not a farmer, does not own an oil or gas well, and does not not own cows
Your average Colorado voter is spot on, and he/she isn’t spending August breathlessly following political non-developments, i.e. questionable polls that mean nothing more than a year before the election.
He/she may be hiking, on vacation or going to work hoping like hell today isn’t the day for layoffs.
Your point about oil and gas wells is solid, too. Penry thinks it’s a huge issue statewide, and it isn’t.
Still, most people aren’t following arcane state political “polls.”
Well- it is a statewide issue in that almost all of us are consumers of O&G products.
Local Oil production doesn’t affect that price much – though there are Cololoradans with the distorted notion that our production is hugely important in the world price.
CO gas production is a little more relevant to the CO consumer. But not that much.
If anything it’s seen as a jobs issue. And here CO might as well get used to having fewer oil jobs anyway.
But at this point in a campaign, anyone can beat anyone else.
If Bennet wants to be elected Senator, he’ll need to do it the old-fashioned way. He’ll need to earn it.
It’s way too early to say that someone, anyone, can’t beat someone, anyone, else.
No matter how bullshit PPP polls tend to be.
We like the idea that “anybody can beat anybody” as much as the next pseudonymous blogger, but Bob Beauprez has his own special column on the spreadsheet where you put people who lose by the kind of margin he lost by.
Seriously, we’re doing Republicans a favor by pointing it out. It can’t be this bleak for them.
You have a lot of good points about the train wreck of his last campaign. But…
At work I have always learned a lot more from mistakes than successes. And I’ve always made a significantly larger improvements after failures than successes.
If Bob Beauprez is good at learning from his mistakes, he could potentially be one of the best campaigners in the state.
It’s a big if because most people try to learn as little as possible from mistakes (honest introspection hurts!).
But if he does…
is that he didn’t run as a strong enough conservative. He will assume that he lost because he didn’t excite his base enough so he will double down with even more conservative rhetoric. Nothing like losing to learn how much more radical you need to become.
But I still maintain it’s too early to pronounce anyone dead.
Shit, even Nixon rose from his own ashes.
Sure, but Nixon (glaring personality defects aside) had a keen intellect and incredibly good instincts about electoral politics. Bob Beauprez…. not so much.
While a lot of things could happen, and I can see it easily within the realm of possibility that Norton or Frazier or maybe even Buck could win, I have to agree with Pols that Beauprez probably has about as much a shot as Cleve Tidwell at picking off Bennet. That is to say, so slim that it’s not even worth discussing.
was a special case.
He got creamed in 1960- but for what he was later able to claim were the worst of reasons: he didn’t look good on tv, he was older and more experienced, and so on
And then he ran to the middle in 68- in all the chaos of that year. When the D’s nominated Humphrey, the end game was in sight. Nixon didn’t have to run on eliminating Medicare or some sort of weird “southern strategy – he had George Wallace do that for him. Political wisdom.
If BWB could run to the middle and look less right wing nut-jobby, he would run strong. But I think he, and far too many other Rs, believe their own press releases and think he and the Rs lost last time around only because of Bush fatigue and they were not far enough right. Wrong analysis and if he runs that way, which appears he is, he’s going to lose by almost the same margin.
cannot win the GOP primary by shifting to the middle. The Rs are all riled up right now, and they’re not going to look kindly on someone changing up their political views.
Besides, he’s spent the last 3 years going further to the right in his book, his radio appearances, etc. Why would he stop now?
No way he can change course toward the middle, even if he’s smart enough to realize he didn’t lose last time because he wasn’t far right enough. Besides, it’s too late. Far right is his brand.
If he tried to tack to the center, he’d just tick off his wacko base and nobody outside his base would buy it. The center already will have a pretty centrist candidate in Bennet. If BWB couldn’t get centrist voters to buy the whole be scared of Boulder Liberal Udall thing, how much less scary is Bennet to folks in the middle?
the story of Scott McInnis’ life these days
Nixon didn’t get creamed in 1960, it was the closest presidential election until Bush-Gore, and there’s some reason to believe it was equally stolen (back when Democrats were the ones who played hardball — ah, the good old days). It was in his 1962 California gubernatorial loss to Jerry Brown’s dad that he got creamed. The rest of what you say is right on.
If you ran your own polling firm, what would be acceptable party ID weighting?
I mean, doesn’t it say worse things about the other R candidates, that Beauprez does better than Buck and Frazier?
Let’s just say for argument’s sake it’s not a total piece of shit.
All this poll tells us is that Bob Beauprez has better name ID than Ryan Frazier, Ken Buck and Michael Bennet, and Michael Bennet has better name ID than the other two. Who needed a poll to tell them that?
With around 1/5 being undecided, it’s impossible to tell anything about the race electorally.
So even if PPP didn’t have questionable polling practices, this poll would still be a turd. QED.
Remember, for “name ID” they give current or former titles, so it was “former Congressman and gubernatorial nominee Bob Beauprez” and “Weld County DA Ken Buck.”
This means people are weighing in on the title in addition to the name.
They could have said “2006 gubernatorial nominee Bob Beauprez who lost by 17% to Bill Ritter” and it would have had the same credibility.
Head-to-heads this far out are strategically and politically meaningless. What I would be interested in knowing is party ID, right track/wrong track, name recognition, and job performance. Curiously enough, this is stuff that could be done by a robodialer, and PPP & Co. could still keep pretending that what they are doing amounts to a damn. Instead, all they do is inspire shitty reporting and insider hand-wringing.
Oh, as to weighting, the answer was obvious:
Of course it’s meaningless to voters. The vote isn’t for over a year. It is important to those campaigns however for their fundraising. Of course name ID is about all this poll tells us about. But that’s what campaigns gauge at this point to see how they’re doing.
I actually talked to PPP and asked about their performance and how they decide how to poll. Will be posting that shortly.
is that R’s have already heard of BWB.
Buck Frazier who? Was not a response, but would have gotten a lot of hits.
Don’t listen to the naysayers. You are the one, and should be there,
on Colfaxin DC, where you belong. If only outside forces didn’t intervene last time.As demonstrated below, you are just the guy to run statewide in an increasingly purple swing state. I might very well throw some money your way. Just don’t tell me that you are going to give it to charity or pass it off to family.
Beauprez’s record as a Congressman, condensed and reordered from OnTheIssues.org
Run Bob Run
Libby’s sold!
This is a solid resume to win the Republican primary.
General election… not so much.
Run Bob Run!